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Nuclear weapons are a technology that is almost 100 years old, and is old enough for a country like North Korea to pull off. It has a space program with rocket

Nuclear weapons are a technology that is almost 100 years old, and is old enough for a country like North Korea to pull off. It has a space program with rockets, a nuclear power sector, etc. It's the thing you do when you want all the pieces for a potential nuclear weapons program without signaling that you're looking to develop a nuclear weapons program. I think the current contemporary estimate is that Japan could assemble a functioning nuke in 6-12 months.

petra 5y ago
Isn't 6 to 12 months that ages in wartime ?
- gruez 5y ago
  Presumably china's not randomly declaring war? They could start building it once tensions rise.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  The presumption is that they’d begin building them once they decide that America won’t guarantee their safety, not once China declares war.
  - PicassoCTs 5y ago
    China had a one child policy. It cant declare war. Everyone of those soldiers has two generations of parent pensioners depending on it. China is not trying to emulate the us and thus - disregarding the propaganda, not gearing up for war.
    - ashtonkem 5y ago
      > It cant declare war. History tells us that countries can and do declare war when it would be illogical for them to do so. There was a running theory before WW1 that the economic interconnection of Europe made war impossible, which was obviously false. Does this mean China is gearing up for war? No. But to declare that China can’t declare war is fairly ahistorical. > China is not trying to emulate the us … disregarding the propaganda Ironically, I’d argue that this is propaganda. “We’re not like that other power, we’re so much better” is pretty classic stuff. Although I’d argue that China isn’t emulating America, I’d argue that China is emulating 19th century Britain with its debt diplomacy.
xxpor 5y ago
Note I didn't ask if Japan could make a fission weapon. I have no doubt they could in relatively short order. I also don't doubt given enough time, they could assemble a fusion weapon, they have the resources and smarts. But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation.
- sfifs 5y ago
  > But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation. Yes and therefore it stands to reason that they probably already have weapons ready (but maybe in a disassembled state) and simply don't disclose it.

petra 5y ago

Isn't 6 to 12 months that ages in wartime ?

gruez 5y ago
Presumably china's not randomly declaring war? They could start building it once tensions rise.
ashtonkem 5y ago
The presumption is that they’d begin building them once they decide that America won’t guarantee their safety, not once China declares war.
- PicassoCTs 5y ago
  China had a one child policy. It cant declare war. Everyone of those soldiers has two generations of parent pensioners depending on it. China is not trying to emulate the us and thus - disregarding the propaganda, not gearing up for war.
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    > It cant declare war. History tells us that countries can and do declare war when it would be illogical for them to do so. There was a running theory before WW1 that the economic interconnection of Europe made war impossible, which was obviously false. Does this mean China is gearing up for war? No. But to declare that China can’t declare war is fairly ahistorical. > China is not trying to emulate the us … disregarding the propaganda Ironically, I’d argue that this is propaganda. “We’re not like that other power, we’re so much better” is pretty classic stuff. Although I’d argue that China isn’t emulating America, I’d argue that China is emulating 19th century Britain with its debt diplomacy.

xxpor 5y ago

Note I didn't ask if Japan could make a fission weapon. I have no doubt they could in relatively short order. I also don't doubt given enough time, they could assemble a fusion weapon, they have the resources and smarts. But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation.

sfifs 5y ago
> But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation. Yes and therefore it stands to reason that they probably already have weapons ready (but maybe in a disassembled state) and simply don't disclose it.