3 ms·

Does Taiwan have nukes?

Retric 5y ago
In theory no, in practice yes. They had an active nuclear weapons program that officially stopped just short of completion in the 1980’s. They also currently have multiple nuclear reactors in the country. So, they have the capacity to have produced nuclear weapons in the past or to produce them in the near future, but if they have any is somewhat unclear. Still, I would expect Shanghai to probably get nuked at some point if China invaded Taiwan.
- rjzzleep 5y ago
  No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA. Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des... https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-54574534.html https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbe...
  - jszymborski 5y ago
    The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though. > "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."
    - rjzzleep 5y ago
      No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight. It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016. "On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45] On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...
      - Retric 5y ago
        A gun type nuclear weapon is an extremely simple device, though with relatively low yield. To the point where the US did not feel the need to test it before dropping Little Boy. Weapon delivery systems are a larger issue. As to Japan having weapons grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium, 5 years is a long time in a weapons program. At it’s peak the US was pumping out hundreds of nuclear weapons a year.
        rjzzleep 5y ago
        Sigh, is that common? You just throw out a bunch of stuff into the room without knowing what you're talking about? Even Little Boy had 64kg of highly enriched uranium. You can't just highly enrich uranium and have no one notice it. But EVEN IF you could. Delivering a nuclear warhead is a world of difference 1945 vs. 2021. Air defense systems are massively better, so you can't just fly to chinese airspace and have them not shoot you down. You can't just build a delivery system silently without testing it that penetrates chinas S-400 without problems. Yeah you can build something in your backyard and then where are you going to blow it up at? Japan can hardly keep chinese fishing boats out of their own waters.
  - justicezyx 5y ago
    The destruction of civilian nuclear industry is because the free people are dumbed to the degree that they cannot reason rationally the pros and cons of nuclear electricity; and they decide they don't want nuclear. And you can well see how the voting whores accelerate this process. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan#Anti-nuclear_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan#Anti-n...
- quintaindilemma 5y ago
  Why shanghai? Beijing would be more appropriate. Taiwan's missiles are capable. And shanghai has better food!
- dirtyid 5y ago
  TW nuclear breakout window is long gone. The island is now thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence. There is no opportunity post 90s to secretly start up a nuclear program without getting glassed by PRC first, and with full endorsement from every nuclear power who doesn't want to see nukes proliferate to mid-tier nations.
  - Retric 5y ago
    That’s a very optimistic take on PRC intelligence operations. Historically countries simply aren’t nearly as good at gathering intelligence as you might think. Further we don’t know what intelligence the PRC has gathered. If China believes Taiwan has nuclear weapons or the capacity to assemble them quickly, there is going to be very little change in rhetoric from China.
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      There's no reason to talk in generalities. PRC's thorough infiltration of TW military/industry and fact that ROC military brass are prodominantly KMT with pro-PRC sympathies has been intelligence consensus for decades. This isn't speculation, it's more or less accepted fact that guides US selling TW 2nd/3rd tier weapon platforms because they know anything that filters to TW military will finds it's way to PRC. Like everyone knows Israel intelligence has been very proficient in infiltrating Iran's nuclear program. PRC infiltration of TW is more comprehensive on whole of society level. No reason to pretend otherwise. To your edit: any credible nuclear break out threat from TW would be taken out within 10minutes from PRC rocketry. Of all PRC redlines, the most serious are TW ones. PRC has fought with nuclear USSR and US over less important core interests while PRC wasn't nuclear. PRC will absolutely preemptively crush any TW nuclear efforts.
      - Retric 5y ago
        I don’t disagree that the PRC is gathering a lot of intelligence, but that’s a long way from saying they gather all relevant information. As to a preemptive strike that’s extremely unprecedented for China. It would definitely be considered at the highest levels, but would they act is a much larger question especially if they discovered functional nuclear weapons. Taiwan meanwhile benefits of China did such a strike on a non nuclear weapon manufacturing factory so could be giving them false intelligence etc. This stuff just has a lot more uncertainty than you might assume.

In theory no, in practice yes. They had an active nuclear weapons program that officially stopped just short of completion in the 1980’s. They also currently have multiple nuclear reactors in the country. So, they have the capacity to have produced nuclear weapons in the past or to produce them in the near future, but if they have any is somewhat unclear. Still, I would expect Shanghai to probably get nuked at some point if China invaded Taiwan.

rjzzleep 5y ago
No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA. Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des... https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-54574534.html https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbe...
- jszymborski 5y ago
  The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though. > "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."
  - rjzzleep 5y ago
    No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight. It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016. "On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45] On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...
    - Retric 5y ago
      A gun type nuclear weapon is an extremely simple device, though with relatively low yield. To the point where the US did not feel the need to test it before dropping Little Boy. Weapon delivery systems are a larger issue. As to Japan having weapons grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium, 5 years is a long time in a weapons program. At it’s peak the US was pumping out hundreds of nuclear weapons a year.
      - rjzzleep 5y ago
        Sigh, is that common? You just throw out a bunch of stuff into the room without knowing what you're talking about? Even Little Boy had 64kg of highly enriched uranium. You can't just highly enrich uranium and have no one notice it. But EVEN IF you could. Delivering a nuclear warhead is a world of difference 1945 vs. 2021. Air defense systems are massively better, so you can't just fly to chinese airspace and have them not shoot you down. You can't just build a delivery system silently without testing it that penetrates chinas S-400 without problems. Yeah you can build something in your backyard and then where are you going to blow it up at? Japan can hardly keep chinese fishing boats out of their own waters.
- justicezyx 5y ago
  The destruction of civilian nuclear industry is because the free people are dumbed to the degree that they cannot reason rationally the pros and cons of nuclear electricity; and they decide they don't want nuclear. And you can well see how the voting whores accelerate this process. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan#Anti-nuclear_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan#Anti-n...
quintaindilemma 5y ago
Why shanghai? Beijing would be more appropriate. Taiwan's missiles are capable. And shanghai has better food!
dirtyid 5y ago
TW nuclear breakout window is long gone. The island is now thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence. There is no opportunity post 90s to secretly start up a nuclear program without getting glassed by PRC first, and with full endorsement from every nuclear power who doesn't want to see nukes proliferate to mid-tier nations.
- Retric 5y ago
  That’s a very optimistic take on PRC intelligence operations. Historically countries simply aren’t nearly as good at gathering intelligence as you might think. Further we don’t know what intelligence the PRC has gathered. If China believes Taiwan has nuclear weapons or the capacity to assemble them quickly, there is going to be very little change in rhetoric from China.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    There's no reason to talk in generalities. PRC's thorough infiltration of TW military/industry and fact that ROC military brass are prodominantly KMT with pro-PRC sympathies has been intelligence consensus for decades. This isn't speculation, it's more or less accepted fact that guides US selling TW 2nd/3rd tier weapon platforms because they know anything that filters to TW military will finds it's way to PRC. Like everyone knows Israel intelligence has been very proficient in infiltrating Iran's nuclear program. PRC infiltration of TW is more comprehensive on whole of society level. No reason to pretend otherwise. To your edit: any credible nuclear break out threat from TW would be taken out within 10minutes from PRC rocketry. Of all PRC redlines, the most serious are TW ones. PRC has fought with nuclear USSR and US over less important core interests while PRC wasn't nuclear. PRC will absolutely preemptively crush any TW nuclear efforts.
    - Retric 5y ago
      I don’t disagree that the PRC is gathering a lot of intelligence, but that’s a long way from saying they gather all relevant information. As to a preemptive strike that’s extremely unprecedented for China. It would definitely be considered at the highest levels, but would they act is a much larger question especially if they discovered functional nuclear weapons. Taiwan meanwhile benefits of China did such a strike on a non nuclear weapon manufacturing factory so could be giving them false intelligence etc. This stuff just has a lot more uncertainty than you might assume.