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I have friends and family in the Mainland. I've lived there myself for years. The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. First they'l

I have friends and family in the Mainland. I've lived there myself for years. The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. First they'll take Taiwan at the first sign of American weakness (which may have happened already). Then they'll go for the rest of the world. It's not even a one party state anymore, it's been transformed into an outright totalitarian dictatorship under Xi. Absolute power is the ultimate goal of such systems, they won't stop until they're defeated or control it all.

roenxi 5y ago
China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan. But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes. It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrapers. Most of China's success in the last 40 years has been economic.
- trompetenaccoun 5y ago
  You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. The CCP has a smarter strategy, they only use force where everything else fails. Like in Hong Kong, they were never going to get the HKnese on their side because no one knows the CCP oppression better than the people of HK, they've had front row seats for decades watching it all in HD. Same goes for Taiwan. They almost successfully infiltrated Australia and New Zealand, they already have people in parliament there. But it seems this didn't quite work out and they promptly threatened Australia with war as well. We'll probably see increasing conflict in the region. The united front work department is active globally. Some regions have priority, like parts of Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. But it's a bit naive thinking China will stay neutral when Xi has given any indication possible that he won't. I find it bizarre many still won't take China seriously. They claim half of SEA at this point and pressure foreign businesses like film studios and airlines into only showing their maps. Ethnic Chinese are at risk of getting kidnapped and brought to China where they're tortured, even if they're foreign citizens. Then there are the concentration camps. What else will it take for foreigners to take notice? Does Wang Yi have to personally travel to their country and leave a severed horse head in their bedrooms?
  - Wowfunhappy 5y ago
    > You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. They got pretty damn close. I’d say the outcome involved a lot of luck.
  - xxpor 5y ago
    "bombs and tanks" means something very very different in 2021 than it did in 1942. You have to remember they barely had V2 rockets in WW2... What actually causes issues for modern armies is relatively low tech guerilla warfare, as we've seen in nearly every war (that any country has engaged in, not just the US) since Vietnam especially, but the hints were there since the second Boer war. Forget even nukes for a second, I don't think anyone has the stomach for a regular conventional war between modern nation states. We've seen the pictures of what cities looked like in Europe after WW2. Now add modern bombs and missiles. Imagine Shanghai or LA just completely flattened. It's not worth it.
    - dillondoyle 5y ago
      planes too: I find the lessons of our reliance on air support in the context of Afghanistan an interesting lesson that our military hopefully learns from. There is some good reporting that reported the total collapse of their army was partially because without the US they couldn't reach their bases or provide support, let alone maintain their planes & helos. The US brass were even bragging the the Taliban couldn't use even our guns that were left behind since they take so much special maintenance. What happens to our 'fancy' planes with electronics/software attacks? Do we even have the capability to drop bombs if something like that happens?
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  Does Taiwan have nukes?
  - Retric 5y ago
    In theory no, in practice yes. They had an active nuclear weapons program that officially stopped just short of completion in the 1980’s. They also currently have multiple nuclear reactors in the country. So, they have the capacity to have produced nuclear weapons in the past or to produce them in the near future, but if they have any is somewhat unclear. Still, I would expect Shanghai to probably get nuked at some point if China invaded Taiwan.
    - rjzzleep 5y ago
      No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA. Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des... https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-54574534.html https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbe...
      - jszymborski 5y ago
        The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though. > "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."
        rjzzleep 5y ago
        No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight. It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016. "On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45] On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  Japan’s policy has always been to keep highly enriched uranium on hand, which they could use to make nukes in relatively short order. It’s a backup plan in case America stops being the guarantor of Japanese safety against China.
  - xxpor 5y ago
    Do they have the wherewithal to pull off a deliverable Teller-Ulam thermonuclear warhead, without doing any atmospheric testing? Does Japan even have SLBMs or bombers? It takes a lot more to be a credible nuclear threat than just having some U235 sitting around...
    - ashtonkem 5y ago
      I can't speak to the delivery aspect, but I don't think you'd even need a Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. But the delivery aspect matters a lot, obviously.
      - xxpor 5y ago
        > Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. Granted, I haven't read a ton of analysis on this, but my guess would be that you do if you're going up against someone with their own thermonuclear bombs. If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? If they got to that level, I'm sure that would be considered an acceptable risk for China. The converse is also true. If Japan dropped the fission weapon first, they'd instantly have a bunch of thermonuclear warheads headed their way.
        tablespoon 5y ago
        > If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? I don't think it works that way. Fission bombs are perfectly capable of leveling a city. If a city gets leveled, no one's going to shrug it off because it was done with the "wrong" kind of weapon. IIRC, modern thermonuclear warheads have yields along the lines of a couple hundred kilotons. Even through theoretically they can be made much more powerful, in practice they aren't.
- chunghuaming 5y ago
  > The future is bleak for Taiwan. I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire) - US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China. - United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now. - China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies - Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good. - China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots.
  - glogla 5y ago
    One more thing to note is that China doesn't have much oil, natural gas and other resources on its own, and it is very hard to get any to it by any other way than by sea - otherwise it's combination of Siberia, Himalayas, deserts and neighbors that hate China. China has enormous manufacturing capacity, but rather fragile supply to make use of it should the seas around it become warzones.
- esyir 5y ago
  The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite. That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors. From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.
    - gruez 5y ago
      >That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes do they need to target beijing? Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
        > Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan. That doesn't address the lack of MAD nor any vulnerability to a first strike.
        ginko 5y ago
        It's you who brought up MAD. For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.
nathanyukai 5y ago
May I ask what makes you think that CCP will go for the rest of the world?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  I don't know Xi's intentions, but there is a lot of rhetoric from him about restoring China's 'natural place' as the world's leader as viewed through hundreds of years ago.
justicezyx 5y ago
> The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. CCP certainly looks like wanting peace, judging against US, which CCP has always been open about to surpass or at least excel...

roenxi 5y ago

China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan. But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes. It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrapers. Most of China's success in the last 40 years has been economic.

trompetenaccoun 5y ago
You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. The CCP has a smarter strategy, they only use force where everything else fails. Like in Hong Kong, they were never going to get the HKnese on their side because no one knows the CCP oppression better than the people of HK, they've had front row seats for decades watching it all in HD. Same goes for Taiwan. They almost successfully infiltrated Australia and New Zealand, they already have people in parliament there. But it seems this didn't quite work out and they promptly threatened Australia with war as well. We'll probably see increasing conflict in the region. The united front work department is active globally. Some regions have priority, like parts of Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. But it's a bit naive thinking China will stay neutral when Xi has given any indication possible that he won't. I find it bizarre many still won't take China seriously. They claim half of SEA at this point and pressure foreign businesses like film studios and airlines into only showing their maps. Ethnic Chinese are at risk of getting kidnapped and brought to China where they're tortured, even if they're foreign citizens. Then there are the concentration camps. What else will it take for foreigners to take notice? Does Wang Yi have to personally travel to their country and leave a severed horse head in their bedrooms?
- Wowfunhappy 5y ago
  > You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. They got pretty damn close. I’d say the outcome involved a lot of luck.
- xxpor 5y ago
  "bombs and tanks" means something very very different in 2021 than it did in 1942. You have to remember they barely had V2 rockets in WW2... What actually causes issues for modern armies is relatively low tech guerilla warfare, as we've seen in nearly every war (that any country has engaged in, not just the US) since Vietnam especially, but the hints were there since the second Boer war. Forget even nukes for a second, I don't think anyone has the stomach for a regular conventional war between modern nation states. We've seen the pictures of what cities looked like in Europe after WW2. Now add modern bombs and missiles. Imagine Shanghai or LA just completely flattened. It's not worth it.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    planes too: I find the lessons of our reliance on air support in the context of Afghanistan an interesting lesson that our military hopefully learns from. There is some good reporting that reported the total collapse of their army was partially because without the US they couldn't reach their bases or provide support, let alone maintain their planes & helos. The US brass were even bragging the the Taliban couldn't use even our guns that were left behind since they take so much special maintenance. What happens to our 'fancy' planes with electronics/software attacks? Do we even have the capability to drop bombs if something like that happens?
jjoonathan 5y ago
Does Taiwan have nukes?
- Retric 5y ago
  In theory no, in practice yes. They had an active nuclear weapons program that officially stopped just short of completion in the 1980’s. They also currently have multiple nuclear reactors in the country. So, they have the capacity to have produced nuclear weapons in the past or to produce them in the near future, but if they have any is somewhat unclear. Still, I would expect Shanghai to probably get nuked at some point if China invaded Taiwan.
  - rjzzleep 5y ago
    No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA. Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des... https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-54574534.html https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbe...
    - jszymborski 5y ago
      The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though. > "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."
      - rjzzleep 5y ago
        No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight. It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016. "On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45] On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...
ashtonkem 5y ago
Japan’s policy has always been to keep highly enriched uranium on hand, which they could use to make nukes in relatively short order. It’s a backup plan in case America stops being the guarantor of Japanese safety against China.
- xxpor 5y ago
  Do they have the wherewithal to pull off a deliverable Teller-Ulam thermonuclear warhead, without doing any atmospheric testing? Does Japan even have SLBMs or bombers? It takes a lot more to be a credible nuclear threat than just having some U235 sitting around...
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    I can't speak to the delivery aspect, but I don't think you'd even need a Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. But the delivery aspect matters a lot, obviously.
    - xxpor 5y ago
      > Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. Granted, I haven't read a ton of analysis on this, but my guess would be that you do if you're going up against someone with their own thermonuclear bombs. If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? If they got to that level, I'm sure that would be considered an acceptable risk for China. The converse is also true. If Japan dropped the fission weapon first, they'd instantly have a bunch of thermonuclear warheads headed their way.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
        > If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? I don't think it works that way. Fission bombs are perfectly capable of leveling a city. If a city gets leveled, no one's going to shrug it off because it was done with the "wrong" kind of weapon. IIRC, modern thermonuclear warheads have yields along the lines of a couple hundred kilotons. Even through theoretically they can be made much more powerful, in practice they aren't.
chunghuaming 5y ago
> The future is bleak for Taiwan. I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire) - US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China. - United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now. - China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies - Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good. - China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots.
- glogla 5y ago
  One more thing to note is that China doesn't have much oil, natural gas and other resources on its own, and it is very hard to get any to it by any other way than by sea - otherwise it's combination of Siberia, Himalayas, deserts and neighbors that hate China. China has enormous manufacturing capacity, but rather fragile supply to make use of it should the seas around it become warzones.
esyir 5y ago
The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite. That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors. From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.
  - gruez 5y ago
    >That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes do they need to target beijing? Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan. That doesn't address the lack of MAD nor any vulnerability to a first strike.
      - ginko 5y ago
        It's you who brought up MAD. For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.

nathanyukai 5y ago

May I ask what makes you think that CCP will go for the rest of the world?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
dillondoyle 5y ago
I don't know Xi's intentions, but there is a lot of rhetoric from him about restoring China's 'natural place' as the world's leader as viewed through hundreds of years ago.

justicezyx 5y ago

> The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. CCP certainly looks like wanting peace, judging against US, which CCP has always been open about to surpass or at least excel...