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What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. I wish there were a nicer explanation but it almost looks like they're preparing for war,

What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. I wish there were a nicer explanation but it almost looks like they're preparing for war, or at least increasing confrontation.

depaulagu 5y ago
Yep, what the CCP's been doing over the past couple of /decades/ is worrying
- sersi 5y ago
  I'd say there's a clear difference between what they were doing post Deng Xiaoping and what they've been doing since Xi Jinping came to power. It's much more worrying now. I remember 15-20 years ago, my friends in China had hope that eventually it would open up but there's no longer any hope there. The few friends who are still outspoken (and are much much more careful than they used to be) now have no hope of this whatsoever.
  - depaulagu 5y ago
    Agreed
  - causi 5y ago
    The difference is a turn in the tide of public opinion. The real battle, the one for the hearts and minds, has been won. Talk to almost any Chinese national who hasn't had a ton of international exposure, like a fresh international student. They either don't care about what the CCP is doing or they fully agree with the justifications.
    - sersi 5y ago
      I agree but to be fair, I do remember that a lot of fresh international undergrad students just arriving from China tended to be very patriotic and pro-CCP even back in early 2000s. The difference is that a lot of them changed their minds after a few years living in a different country. I did notice back then that graduate students who had completed undergrad in China tended to be much less pro CCP and not buying that much into things. This does seem to have changed.
    - vkou 5y ago
      You've described the view of most nationals of any country about their country's foreign policy. Remember '03 when two thirds of Americans seemed utterly convinced that Iraq was an existential threat to the security and prosperity of the United States? Or '21, when half of Americans have suddenly remembered that they actually want other people's children to continue fighting a forever war in Afghanistan?
      - causi 5y ago
        I'm not talking about foreign policy. I'm talking about disappearing dissidents and putting ethnic minorities into reeducation camps.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > I'd say there's a clear difference between what they were doing post Deng Xiaoping and what they've been doing since Xi Jinping came to power. It's much more worrying now. > I remember 15-20 years ago, my friends in China had hope that eventually it would open up but there's no longer any hope there. The few friends who are still outspoken (and are much much more careful than they used to be) now have no hope of this whatsoever. Yes. I don't think they were ever exactly for liberalization, but Xi took a hard turn against it (and made that policy): https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/chinas-new-leadership-takes-hard-line-in-secret-memo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/chinas-new-lea.... Liberals (both the American and more classical kind) often seem to assume their ideals will eventually prevail, but nothing guarantees that.
    - justicezyx 5y ago
      > Liberals (both the American and more classical kind) often seem to assume their ideals will eventually prevail, but nothing guarantees that. Same. History has no single evidence that pure ideology movement can shift public opinion substantially and maintain that change in serious historically meaningful time period (let's say 50 - 100 years).
  - burnerid 5y ago
    There is thing called survival bias. Your friend could have similar thoughts with you and then you became friend. There are many reasons you don't hear how majority Chinese think, it could be majority of them doesn't read/speak english, it could be toxic comments and community environment prevented them from speaking out, it could be media biased reports, and not mention a lot of advanced countries' supremacy. If you are not faimilar with that, try to talk with people lived in super rich neighborhood and super poor neighborhood, you'd be amazed how difference people really think and speak out. If the same thing happens in different regions/countries of the world are treated differntly, in a lot of ways, is called bias, not a serious thinking.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
  You are making a very valid point. For a good amount of time China was not just tolerated, but supported by US business in general. In a sense, Lenin was right about the rope. The trope about prosperity bringing democracy was wrong. I will go even further. What China is doing may become something US will at least partially adopt.
  - postingawayonhn 5y ago
    I think it is correct that prosperity will eventually bring democracy. Xi sees that too and is busy trying to knock China's wealthy citizens down a couple of notches.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      >> I think it is correct that prosperity will eventually bring democracy. > Xi sees that too and is busy trying to knock China's wealthy citizens down a couple of notches. What do billionaire-wealthy citizens have to do with prosperity or democracy (besides the fantasies of pro-billionaire propaganda)?
      - A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
        From that perspective, I can understand why Xi wants to limit power of individuals he sees in US ( they do wield tremendous amount of power ). He obviously understands it is a threat to the system ( and by extension himself ). I have long argued that too much power in one individual is a bad thing ( and that includes billionaires ).
        alisonkisk 5y ago
        The CCP inner congress is full of billionaires. They only cut down non-CCP billionaires.
      - ddoolin 5y ago
        Well, they did pick up Jack Ma for speaking out against gov't regulation (to put it simply). Celebrities in China, including the wealthy, have a lot of influence. Their "abductions" almost certainly are intertwined with keeping a grip on their power.
- powerapple 5y ago
  Comparing to whom? The last decades of CCP rule is excellent comparing to any other candidates. You want Chinese to believe Afghanistan is better? In past decades, which country started multiple wars? CCP may produced some cheap quality stuff so people in poor country can have cheap stuff, I see it as a plus.
postingawayonhn 5y ago
I don't think it necessarily signals war. It's just Xi trying to bring the citizens and economy back under his control. In his mind the opening up of China went a little too far.
roenxi 5y ago
"If you want peace, prepare for war" It is very scary in the Asia-Pacific region. But in recent times the wars of note have been America v. [various smoking craters]. In the local area, China, India, Japan & Korea all know how war works, and the SEA nations might be surprising. It is early to start worrying about China starting something. It is a scarier thought imagining them responding to something else.
- trompetenaccoun 5y ago
  I have friends and family in the Mainland. I've lived there myself for years. The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. First they'll take Taiwan at the first sign of American weakness (which may have happened already). Then they'll go for the rest of the world. It's not even a one party state anymore, it's been transformed into an outright totalitarian dictatorship under Xi. Absolute power is the ultimate goal of such systems, they won't stop until they're defeated or control it all.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan. But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes. It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrapers. Most of China's success in the last 40 years has been economic.
    - trompetenaccoun 5y ago
      You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. The CCP has a smarter strategy, they only use force where everything else fails. Like in Hong Kong, they were never going to get the HKnese on their side because no one knows the CCP oppression better than the people of HK, they've had front row seats for decades watching it all in HD. Same goes for Taiwan. They almost successfully infiltrated Australia and New Zealand, they already have people in parliament there. But it seems this didn't quite work out and they promptly threatened Australia with war as well. We'll probably see increasing conflict in the region. The united front work department is active globally. Some regions have priority, like parts of Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. But it's a bit naive thinking China will stay neutral when Xi has given any indication possible that he won't. I find it bizarre many still won't take China seriously. They claim half of SEA at this point and pressure foreign businesses like film studios and airlines into only showing their maps. Ethnic Chinese are at risk of getting kidnapped and brought to China where they're tortured, even if they're foreign citizens. Then there are the concentration camps. What else will it take for foreigners to take notice? Does Wang Yi have to personally travel to their country and leave a severed horse head in their bedrooms?
schuke 5y ago
Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule. The war doesn't have to be real but the appearance of war or preparations for war is a must. Look at North Korea. It's almost always on brink of war with the South. China is moving in NK's direction so people feel war is coming. It's not, it's just that China is becoming more totalitarian. The ruling class don't care, don't want and actually cannot fight a war.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule. I like Orwell, but people schematize real things into his examples too much, especially 1984. It's better to pay attention to the real thing as it is. For instance, I think it's a serious possibility that China will mainly use economic power to expand its empire, by using markets to foster dependency in ways you can't really do if you've swallowed free market propaganda and your main motive is profit. The end goal could be something like China at the center of the world, with its ideology and system having prestige and setting the standard, surrounded by clearly-subordinate tributaries. That'd be great if your main ideological commitment is to Chinese nationalism, but not so great if you care about anything else.
  - totony 5y ago
    To be fair, you're describing the USA over the past century
    - astrea 5y ago
      I know you meant this as nothing more than a dig at the US (yawn), but if anything that lends credence to his argument. They've seen the playbook and they're gonna try their hand at it now. If they're successful, then it becomes yet another chapter in the book on the rise and fall of empires that my grandson will write a high school essay on.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > To be fair, you're describing the USA over the past century Then the question is: what are your commitments and which empire is closer to them? Also, it's not exactly the US, since the US has a different underlying ideology, and US's commitment to free markets was successfully exploited by the Chinese in a way I don't think they'll be dumb enough to repeat.
jeswin 5y ago
Indeed. In other CCP news, they forced a Colorado highschool to edit their website to say Taiwan is a province of China. The school complied, so that the kids could attend United Nations Commission on the Status of Women. [1] 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-makes-sure-everyone-writes-taiwans-name-just-soeven-a-colorado-high-school-11631304386 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-makes-sure-everyone-write...
- ConcernedCoder 5y ago
  Question: why does china have the power to dictate who can attend (whatever) at the "United Nations" ?
  - dgfitz 5y ago
    5th paragraph. > China sits on the U.N. Committee on Non-Governmental Organizations, which authorizes groups big and small to participate at U.N. functions. At its publicly held meetings, any representative can hold up an application. Chinese bureaucrats scour each group that comes before the committee, scrutinizing every nook and cranny of their websites for references to Taiwan, say researchers who’ve studied the committee. If groups don’t include Beijing’s preferred language, China asks the committee to request changes.
- pphysch 5y ago
  For some perspective, this is still nothing compared to what the government of Israel has recently achieved in manipulating the American education system [1]. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Amawi_v._Pflugerville_Independent_School_District https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Amawi_v._Pfluger...
  - toxik 5y ago
    What-aboutism at its finest.
    - pphysch 5y ago
throwaway_2047 5y ago
I used to live in Hong Kong. In the past 2 year situation has been Orwellian. News outlet being shutdown, pro-democratic parties dismissed, charities disbanded, whole members of political party got arrested, among others. At least 1% of the population fled the city in the first half of 2021. In a parallel universe, and completely unrelated note, my friends in China, thinks their country can finally stand-up against the west. They cannot be more proud of their country. There is also the sentiment that the West would not doing anything concrete against China I can dig up figures and references if anyone interested Edited with reference: [1] Clam down on Apple Daily, the only pro-democratic (that I know of) news outlet in Hong Kong [2] Directors of Apple Daily arrested [3] 65,000 applications of BN(O) visa, the visa for HKers to move to the UK. HK population is around 7.5M [4] Youtubers exodus, for fear of government prosecution in the name of the national security or for whatever reason. [5] 230 Democrats quitting local council. [6] There are around 479 local council in total. So about half of them quit [7] People were arrested in the name of national security here and there. A charity, formed last year, providing inmate visiting service, will be dismissed. Only Chinese source available at the moment [8] During the peak of mass migration in the 90s, 62,000 people per year moved away from HK. Compare with 65,000 moving to the UK in the first 6 months [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-apple-daily-will-close-after-government-choked-funds-11624437029 https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-apple-daily-will-clo... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/hong-kong-police-arrest-editor-in-chief-of-apple-daily-newspaper-in-morning-raids https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/hong-kong-poli... [3] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65-000-hongkongers-apply-for-british-visas-over-five-months-ltrv5wpgm https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65-000-hongkongers-apply-... [4] https://www.youtube.com/c/memehongkong https://www.youtube.com/c/memehongkong https://www.youtube.com/c/bobsyouruncle1981 https://www.youtube.com/c/bobsyouruncle1981 https://www.youtube.com/c/Gavinchiu001 https://www.youtube.com/c/Gavinchiu001 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjj_osiKAP_qTtJAr6IrvA https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjj_osiKAP_qTtJAr6IrvA https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCh_KRmXM4RiQFvOBBDpvC6Q https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCh_KRmXM4RiQFvOBBDpvC6Q [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/230-elected-pro-democrats-quit-Hong-Kong-local-councils https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/230-elected-pro-democrats-q... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_councils_of_Hong_Kong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_councils_of_Hong_Kong [7] https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=449783 https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=449783 [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waves_of_mass_migrations_from_Hong_Kong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waves_of_mass_migrations_from_...
president 5y ago
It has escalated in the past few years but they've been preparing for decades. Last month, Chinese warships were spotted [1] near Alaska. I find it strange that these acts of aggression are not known by your average American citizen. [1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3148725/us-coast-guard-spots-chinese-warships-alaska https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3148725/us-...
- pphysch 5y ago
  Until the Chinese have carriers perpetually parked in the Gulf of Mexico, they haven't even begun to reciprocate Washington's naval aggression in the South China Sea.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    A better analogy would be closer to California, because the US is protecting trade routes.
    - pphysch 5y ago
      Protecting trade routes from whom? Itself? https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/us-seeks-seizure-iranian-oil-aboard-tanker https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/us-seeks-seizure-ira...
    - finiteseries 5y ago
      California is an import-consumer-product route for the US. SCS is an export-everything/import-food-energy-also-basically-everything route for China. Gulf of Mexico + Caribbean would be a far closer comparison with whatever non North American US exports that exist going out through there, and eg Cuba, Venezuela & all the other nations vs California’s fish.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    I don't think following maritime law is aggression. From my understanding, CCPs claims to islands and waters become legitimate if we cede the ground under maritime law.
pphysch 5y ago
The most plausible explanation [1] is that China is insulating its domestic economy from the coming global financial reckoning, by cracking down on excessive financialization, etc. Either the US Fed will hike rates (taper QE) and crash the financial markets like never before, or they will continue to kick the can down the road with increasingly negative rates and the USD will 'gradually' become worthless. Regardless, the correct play is to limit exposure to the USD system, and historically "closed" societies have the advantage here. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_circulation
justicezyx 5y ago
I think CCP is indeed preparing for a war over Taiwan. There are plenty activities recently pointing to the mutual independence between China and US, in economy, cultural, military etc. I don't believe there is an active war plan in place. But it looks like at least CCP is laying the foundation for a war, so that there might be chance for US to concede wholy to relinquish their support for Taiwan Independence. Well, I guess that's better than a nuclear war.
ishikawa 5y ago
Indeed. And they can manipulate many weaker countries.
dirtyid 5y ago
> nicer explanation Xi is seeking 3rd term, he's initiating populist moves to appeal to the masses. That's more or less it on top of some medium/long term strategic shifts to improve self sufficiency (from US) which takes time to unfold. >preparing for war That's still 15-30 years away over TW, and by that time PLA will be strong enough to deter a big war with US. PLA is modernizing and preparing for war because that's what competent militaries do. PLA has been incompetent for too long. Keep in mind PRC military budget is still ~2%, if it's preparing for war expect this to double/triple. Plus PRC has been selling off oil reserves to control oil prices. It would be hoarding if preparing for imminent war.
walrus01 5y ago
> What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. Past couple of months? Try past 40 years... One of my earliest childhood concrete memories of watching a news event of global importance was the CNN, NBC and BBC coverage of the Tienanmen Square massacre.
PikachuEXE 5y ago
That should be "past couple of years" not months.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
PicassoCTs 5y ago
The big problem right now is that they invite chinese ex-pats home for a passport renewl, but do not renew that passport. Which means, if you visit family, you are trapped, even if you are not very outspoken regarding politics.

What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. I wish there were a nicer explanation but it almost looks like they're preparing for war, or at least increasing confrontation.

depaulagu 5y ago

Yep, what the CCP's been doing over the past couple of /decades/ is worrying

sersi 5y ago
I'd say there's a clear difference between what they were doing post Deng Xiaoping and what they've been doing since Xi Jinping came to power. It's much more worrying now. I remember 15-20 years ago, my friends in China had hope that eventually it would open up but there's no longer any hope there. The few friends who are still outspoken (and are much much more careful than they used to be) now have no hope of this whatsoever.
- depaulagu 5y ago
  Agreed
- causi 5y ago
  The difference is a turn in the tide of public opinion. The real battle, the one for the hearts and minds, has been won. Talk to almost any Chinese national who hasn't had a ton of international exposure, like a fresh international student. They either don't care about what the CCP is doing or they fully agree with the justifications.
  - sersi 5y ago
    I agree but to be fair, I do remember that a lot of fresh international undergrad students just arriving from China tended to be very patriotic and pro-CCP even back in early 2000s. The difference is that a lot of them changed their minds after a few years living in a different country. I did notice back then that graduate students who had completed undergrad in China tended to be much less pro CCP and not buying that much into things. This does seem to have changed.
  - vkou 5y ago
    You've described the view of most nationals of any country about their country's foreign policy. Remember '03 when two thirds of Americans seemed utterly convinced that Iraq was an existential threat to the security and prosperity of the United States? Or '21, when half of Americans have suddenly remembered that they actually want other people's children to continue fighting a forever war in Afghanistan?
    - causi 5y ago
      I'm not talking about foreign policy. I'm talking about disappearing dissidents and putting ethnic minorities into reeducation camps.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > I'd say there's a clear difference between what they were doing post Deng Xiaoping and what they've been doing since Xi Jinping came to power. It's much more worrying now. > I remember 15-20 years ago, my friends in China had hope that eventually it would open up but there's no longer any hope there. The few friends who are still outspoken (and are much much more careful than they used to be) now have no hope of this whatsoever. Yes. I don't think they were ever exactly for liberalization, but Xi took a hard turn against it (and made that policy): https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/chinas-new-leadership-takes-hard-line-in-secret-memo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/chinas-new-lea.... Liberals (both the American and more classical kind) often seem to assume their ideals will eventually prevail, but nothing guarantees that.
  - justicezyx 5y ago
    > Liberals (both the American and more classical kind) often seem to assume their ideals will eventually prevail, but nothing guarantees that. Same. History has no single evidence that pure ideology movement can shift public opinion substantially and maintain that change in serious historically meaningful time period (let's say 50 - 100 years).
- burnerid 5y ago
  There is thing called survival bias. Your friend could have similar thoughts with you and then you became friend. There are many reasons you don't hear how majority Chinese think, it could be majority of them doesn't read/speak english, it could be toxic comments and community environment prevented them from speaking out, it could be media biased reports, and not mention a lot of advanced countries' supremacy. If you are not faimilar with that, try to talk with people lived in super rich neighborhood and super poor neighborhood, you'd be amazed how difference people really think and speak out. If the same thing happens in different regions/countries of the world are treated differntly, in a lot of ways, is called bias, not a serious thinking.
A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
You are making a very valid point. For a good amount of time China was not just tolerated, but supported by US business in general. In a sense, Lenin was right about the rope. The trope about prosperity bringing democracy was wrong. I will go even further. What China is doing may become something US will at least partially adopt.
- postingawayonhn 5y ago
  I think it is correct that prosperity will eventually bring democracy. Xi sees that too and is busy trying to knock China's wealthy citizens down a couple of notches.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    >> I think it is correct that prosperity will eventually bring democracy. > Xi sees that too and is busy trying to knock China's wealthy citizens down a couple of notches. What do billionaire-wealthy citizens have to do with prosperity or democracy (besides the fantasies of pro-billionaire propaganda)?
    - A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
      From that perspective, I can understand why Xi wants to limit power of individuals he sees in US ( they do wield tremendous amount of power ). He obviously understands it is a threat to the system ( and by extension himself ). I have long argued that too much power in one individual is a bad thing ( and that includes billionaires ).
      - alisonkisk 5y ago
        The CCP inner congress is full of billionaires. They only cut down non-CCP billionaires.
    - ddoolin 5y ago
      Well, they did pick up Jack Ma for speaking out against gov't regulation (to put it simply). Celebrities in China, including the wealthy, have a lot of influence. Their "abductions" almost certainly are intertwined with keeping a grip on their power.
powerapple 5y ago
Comparing to whom? The last decades of CCP rule is excellent comparing to any other candidates. You want Chinese to believe Afghanistan is better? In past decades, which country started multiple wars? CCP may produced some cheap quality stuff so people in poor country can have cheap stuff, I see it as a plus.

postingawayonhn 5y ago

I don't think it necessarily signals war. It's just Xi trying to bring the citizens and economy back under his control. In his mind the opening up of China went a little too far.

roenxi 5y ago

"If you want peace, prepare for war" It is very scary in the Asia-Pacific region. But in recent times the wars of note have been America v. [various smoking craters]. In the local area, China, India, Japan & Korea all know how war works, and the SEA nations might be surprising. It is early to start worrying about China starting something. It is a scarier thought imagining them responding to something else.

trompetenaccoun 5y ago
I have friends and family in the Mainland. I've lived there myself for years. The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. First they'll take Taiwan at the first sign of American weakness (which may have happened already). Then they'll go for the rest of the world. It's not even a one party state anymore, it's been transformed into an outright totalitarian dictatorship under Xi. Absolute power is the ultimate goal of such systems, they won't stop until they're defeated or control it all.
- roenxi 5y ago
  China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan. But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes. It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrapers. Most of China's success in the last 40 years has been economic.
  - trompetenaccoun 5y ago
    You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. The CCP has a smarter strategy, they only use force where everything else fails. Like in Hong Kong, they were never going to get the HKnese on their side because no one knows the CCP oppression better than the people of HK, they've had front row seats for decades watching it all in HD. Same goes for Taiwan. They almost successfully infiltrated Australia and New Zealand, they already have people in parliament there. But it seems this didn't quite work out and they promptly threatened Australia with war as well. We'll probably see increasing conflict in the region. The united front work department is active globally. Some regions have priority, like parts of Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. But it's a bit naive thinking China will stay neutral when Xi has given any indication possible that he won't. I find it bizarre many still won't take China seriously. They claim half of SEA at this point and pressure foreign businesses like film studios and airlines into only showing their maps. Ethnic Chinese are at risk of getting kidnapped and brought to China where they're tortured, even if they're foreign citizens. Then there are the concentration camps. What else will it take for foreigners to take notice? Does Wang Yi have to personally travel to their country and leave a severed horse head in their bedrooms?

schuke 5y ago

Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule. The war doesn't have to be real but the appearance of war or preparations for war is a must. Look at North Korea. It's almost always on brink of war with the South. China is moving in NK's direction so people feel war is coming. It's not, it's just that China is becoming more totalitarian. The ruling class don't care, don't want and actually cannot fight a war.

tablespoon 5y ago
> Basic Orwell 101: Eternal war is a prerequisite for totalitarian rule. I like Orwell, but people schematize real things into his examples too much, especially 1984. It's better to pay attention to the real thing as it is. For instance, I think it's a serious possibility that China will mainly use economic power to expand its empire, by using markets to foster dependency in ways you can't really do if you've swallowed free market propaganda and your main motive is profit. The end goal could be something like China at the center of the world, with its ideology and system having prestige and setting the standard, surrounded by clearly-subordinate tributaries. That'd be great if your main ideological commitment is to Chinese nationalism, but not so great if you care about anything else.
- totony 5y ago
  To be fair, you're describing the USA over the past century
  - astrea 5y ago
    I know you meant this as nothing more than a dig at the US (yawn), but if anything that lends credence to his argument. They've seen the playbook and they're gonna try their hand at it now. If they're successful, then it becomes yet another chapter in the book on the rise and fall of empires that my grandson will write a high school essay on.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > To be fair, you're describing the USA over the past century Then the question is: what are your commitments and which empire is closer to them? Also, it's not exactly the US, since the US has a different underlying ideology, and US's commitment to free markets was successfully exploited by the Chinese in a way I don't think they'll be dumb enough to repeat.

jeswin 5y ago

Indeed. In other CCP news, they forced a Colorado highschool to edit their website to say Taiwan is a province of China. The school complied, so that the kids could attend United Nations Commission on the Status of Women. [1] 1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-makes-sure-everyone-writes-taiwans-name-just-soeven-a-colorado-high-school-11631304386 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-makes-sure-everyone-write...

ConcernedCoder 5y ago
Question: why does china have the power to dictate who can attend (whatever) at the "United Nations" ?
- dgfitz 5y ago
  5th paragraph. > China sits on the U.N. Committee on Non-Governmental Organizations, which authorizes groups big and small to participate at U.N. functions. At its publicly held meetings, any representative can hold up an application. Chinese bureaucrats scour each group that comes before the committee, scrutinizing every nook and cranny of their websites for references to Taiwan, say researchers who’ve studied the committee. If groups don’t include Beijing’s preferred language, China asks the committee to request changes.
pphysch 5y ago
For some perspective, this is still nothing compared to what the government of Israel has recently achieved in manipulating the American education system [1]. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Amawi_v._Pflugerville_Independent_School_District https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Amawi_v._Pfluger...
- toxik 5y ago
  What-aboutism at its finest.
  - pphysch 5y ago

throwaway_2047 5y ago

I used to live in Hong Kong. In the past 2 year situation has been Orwellian. News outlet being shutdown, pro-democratic parties dismissed, charities disbanded, whole members of political party got arrested, among others. At least 1% of the population fled the city in the first half of 2021. In a parallel universe, and completely unrelated note, my friends in China, thinks their country can finally stand-up against the west. They cannot be more proud of their country. There is also the sentiment that the West would not doing anything concrete against China I can dig up figures and references if anyone interested Edited with reference: [1] Clam down on Apple Daily, the only pro-democratic (that I know of) news outlet in Hong Kong [2] Directors of Apple Daily arrested [3] 65,000 applications of BN(O) visa, the visa for HKers to move to the UK. HK population is around 7.5M [4] Youtubers exodus, for fear of government prosecution in the name of the national security or for whatever reason. [5] 230 Democrats quitting local council. [6] There are around 479 local council in total. So about half of them quit [7] People were arrested in the name of national security here and there. A charity, formed last year, providing inmate visiting service, will be dismissed. Only Chinese source available at the moment [8] During the peak of mass migration in the 90s, 62,000 people per year moved away from HK. Compare with 65,000 moving to the UK in the first 6 months [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-apple-daily-will-close-after-government-choked-funds-11624437029 https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-apple-daily-will-clo... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/hong-kong-police-arrest-editor-in-chief-of-apple-daily-newspaper-in-morning-raids https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/hong-kong-poli... [3] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65-000-hongkongers-apply-for-british-visas-over-five-months-ltrv5wpgm https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65-000-hongkongers-apply-... [4] https://www.youtube.com/c/memehongkong https://www.youtube.com/c/memehongkong https://www.youtube.com/c/bobsyouruncle1981 https://www.youtube.com/c/bobsyouruncle1981 https://www.youtube.com/c/Gavinchiu001 https://www.youtube.com/c/Gavinchiu001 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjj_osiKAP_qTtJAr6IrvA https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjj_osiKAP_qTtJAr6IrvA https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCh_KRmXM4RiQFvOBBDpvC6Q https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCh_KRmXM4RiQFvOBBDpvC6Q [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/230-elected-pro-democrats-quit-Hong-Kong-local-councils https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/230-elected-pro-democrats-q... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_councils_of_Hong_Kong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_councils_of_Hong_Kong [7] https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=449783 https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=449783 [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waves_of_mass_migrations_from_Hong_Kong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waves_of_mass_migrations_from_...

president 5y ago

It has escalated in the past few years but they've been preparing for decades. Last month, Chinese warships were spotted [1] near Alaska. I find it strange that these acts of aggression are not known by your average American citizen. [1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3148725/us-coast-guard-spots-chinese-warships-alaska https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3148725/us-...

pphysch 5y ago
Until the Chinese have carriers perpetually parked in the Gulf of Mexico, they haven't even begun to reciprocate Washington's naval aggression in the South China Sea.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  A better analogy would be closer to California, because the US is protecting trade routes.
  - pphysch 5y ago
    Protecting trade routes from whom? Itself? https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/us-seeks-seizure-iranian-oil-aboard-tanker https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/us-seeks-seizure-ira...
  - finiteseries 5y ago
    California is an import-consumer-product route for the US. SCS is an export-everything/import-food-energy-also-basically-everything route for China. Gulf of Mexico + Caribbean would be a far closer comparison with whatever non North American US exports that exist going out through there, and eg Cuba, Venezuela & all the other nations vs California’s fish.
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  I don't think following maritime law is aggression. From my understanding, CCPs claims to islands and waters become legitimate if we cede the ground under maritime law.

pphysch 5y ago

The most plausible explanation [1] is that China is insulating its domestic economy from the coming global financial reckoning, by cracking down on excessive financialization, etc. Either the US Fed will hike rates (taper QE) and crash the financial markets like never before, or they will continue to kick the can down the road with increasingly negative rates and the USD will 'gradually' become worthless. Regardless, the correct play is to limit exposure to the USD system, and historically "closed" societies have the advantage here. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_circulation

justicezyx 5y ago

I think CCP is indeed preparing for a war over Taiwan. There are plenty activities recently pointing to the mutual independence between China and US, in economy, cultural, military etc. I don't believe there is an active war plan in place. But it looks like at least CCP is laying the foundation for a war, so that there might be chance for US to concede wholy to relinquish their support for Taiwan Independence. Well, I guess that's better than a nuclear war.

ishikawa 5y ago

Indeed. And they can manipulate many weaker countries.

dirtyid 5y ago

> nicer explanation Xi is seeking 3rd term, he's initiating populist moves to appeal to the masses. That's more or less it on top of some medium/long term strategic shifts to improve self sufficiency (from US) which takes time to unfold. >preparing for war That's still 15-30 years away over TW, and by that time PLA will be strong enough to deter a big war with US. PLA is modernizing and preparing for war because that's what competent militaries do. PLA has been incompetent for too long. Keep in mind PRC military budget is still ~2%, if it's preparing for war expect this to double/triple. Plus PRC has been selling off oil reserves to control oil prices. It would be hoarding if preparing for imminent war.

walrus01 5y ago

> What the CCP's been doing over the past couple of months is worrying. Past couple of months? Try past 40 years... One of my earliest childhood concrete memories of watching a news event of global importance was the CNN, NBC and BBC coverage of the Tienanmen Square massacre.

PikachuEXE 5y ago

That should be "past couple of years" not months.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

PicassoCTs 5y ago

The big problem right now is that they invite chinese ex-pats home for a passport renewl, but do not renew that passport. Which means, if you visit family, you are trapped, even if you are not very outspoken regarding politics.