5 ms·

> Except that it doesn't prevent spread That's right, it doesn't prevent it, it reduces it. Just like wearing a seat belt does not prevent dying in a car accid

> Except that it doesn't prevent spread That's right, it doesn't prevent it, it reduces it. Just like wearing a seat belt does not prevent dying in a car accident but reduces the risk. You're just splitting hair.

mythrwy 5y ago
Do we have any hard data on that or is it just something people say?
swader999 5y ago
I'm not saying it doesn't reduce individual risk for a period of time. It does. But vaccinating entire populations for a respiratory virus that mutates and stays infectious is a recipe for never ending boosters and has a strong possibility of creating more lethal variants because these will thrive in the vaccinated less severe masses when normally they'd be bed ridden, symptomatic and easily contained through contact tracing (See sars 1) You better hope they dial the targeting for the boosters and the timing of them correctly because when you're short lived immunity wanes from the previous dose you may be facing a more tuned up lethal version that was kept circulating by all these vaccinated persons. Vaccines for the most vulnerable are very appropriate here but not for the individuals that have very low risk. It would be better to unlock this population and let them develop stronger natural immunity while dealing with the edge cases with monoclonal antibodies and other promising viral therapies.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  This is completely at odds with what the experts say. They could be all wrong, or you could be. What are your credentials in virology/immunology? And do you have examples of vaccinations favoring the apparition of variants for other diseases? As far as I know, that's never happened. On the contrary, I've seen researchers point to immunocompromised patients as possible sources for variants, as the infection lingers in them. On the other hand, vaccines, even when they don't work to prevent the infection do shorten it, so by that logic they should reduce the apparition of variants.
  - swader999 5y ago
    Shortening it if it doesn't bring the R naught below 1 doesn't have much advantage. Look at what happened with a vaccine that was applied to the poultry industry that didn't prevent transmission and had similar mutational characteristics to SarsCov2: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m...
    - himinlomax 5y ago
      > Shortening it if it doesn't bring the R naught below 1 doesn't have much advantage. If it reduces R, other measures can help bring it down further. Further down the line, inhaled vaccines currently in development targeting the mucosal membrane are likely to enhance efficacy. > Look at what happened with a vaccine that was applied to the poultry industry that didn't prevent transmission and had similar mutational characteristics to SarsCov2: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m... So that vaccine, uniquely, precisely caused the infection to linger instead of quickly killing the host. That's not what's happening with Covid and current vaccines, the opposite in fact is.
- foota 5y ago
  The fact is that the majority of cases are still coming from unvaccinated people though, this hypothetical widespread infection of vaccinated people you're suggesting isn't happening.
  - swader999 5y ago
    Right now in my area 1 in 4 new cases are in fully vaccinated people. Why is Gibraltar experiencing a surge in cases with 99% of its population fully vaccinated? Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. See the article I posted on Marek's vaccine in chickens.
    - foota 5y ago
      That's... still a minority? I'm not saying it's impossible, but here's a link saying that the risk here is minor: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v.... You can throw out all the theorhetical risks of a vaccine all you want but the harm of avoiding vaccination is readily apparent and obvious.
    - himinlomax 5y ago
      > Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. The Covid vaccines reduce the duration of the infection (as well as reducing the likelihood of infection). The Marek vaccine caused it to last longer, by prolonging the life of the host. You're drawing the exact opposite conclusion to what your data shows.

mythrwy 5y ago

Do we have any hard data on that or is it just something people say?

swader999 5y ago

I'm not saying it doesn't reduce individual risk for a period of time. It does. But vaccinating entire populations for a respiratory virus that mutates and stays infectious is a recipe for never ending boosters and has a strong possibility of creating more lethal variants because these will thrive in the vaccinated less severe masses when normally they'd be bed ridden, symptomatic and easily contained through contact tracing (See sars 1) You better hope they dial the targeting for the boosters and the timing of them correctly because when you're short lived immunity wanes from the previous dose you may be facing a more tuned up lethal version that was kept circulating by all these vaccinated persons. Vaccines for the most vulnerable are very appropriate here but not for the individuals that have very low risk. It would be better to unlock this population and let them develop stronger natural immunity while dealing with the edge cases with monoclonal antibodies and other promising viral therapies.

himinlomax 5y ago
This is completely at odds with what the experts say. They could be all wrong, or you could be. What are your credentials in virology/immunology? And do you have examples of vaccinations favoring the apparition of variants for other diseases? As far as I know, that's never happened. On the contrary, I've seen researchers point to immunocompromised patients as possible sources for variants, as the infection lingers in them. On the other hand, vaccines, even when they don't work to prevent the infection do shorten it, so by that logic they should reduce the apparition of variants.
- swader999 5y ago
  Shortening it if it doesn't bring the R naught below 1 doesn't have much advantage. Look at what happened with a vaccine that was applied to the poultry industry that didn't prevent transmission and had similar mutational characteristics to SarsCov2: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m...
  - himinlomax 5y ago
    > Shortening it if it doesn't bring the R naught below 1 doesn't have much advantage. If it reduces R, other measures can help bring it down further. Further down the line, inhaled vaccines currently in development targeting the mucosal membrane are likely to enhance efficacy. > Look at what happened with a vaccine that was applied to the poultry industry that didn't prevent transmission and had similar mutational characteristics to SarsCov2: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m... So that vaccine, uniquely, precisely caused the infection to linger instead of quickly killing the host. That's not what's happening with Covid and current vaccines, the opposite in fact is.
foota 5y ago
The fact is that the majority of cases are still coming from unvaccinated people though, this hypothetical widespread infection of vaccinated people you're suggesting isn't happening.
- swader999 5y ago
  Right now in my area 1 in 4 new cases are in fully vaccinated people. Why is Gibraltar experiencing a surge in cases with 99% of its population fully vaccinated? Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. See the article I posted on Marek's vaccine in chickens.
  - foota 5y ago
    That's... still a minority? I'm not saying it's impossible, but here's a link saying that the risk here is minor: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v.... You can throw out all the theorhetical risks of a vaccine all you want but the harm of avoiding vaccination is readily apparent and obvious.
  - himinlomax 5y ago
    > Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. The Covid vaccines reduce the duration of the infection (as well as reducing the likelihood of infection). The Marek vaccine caused it to last longer, by prolonging the life of the host. You're drawing the exact opposite conclusion to what your data shows.