3 ms·
Including ensemble forecasts into Open-Meteo is already on my backlog. And yes, this will return those 90% confidence intervals. Forecast variability is diffic
by meteo-jeff 5y ago
Including ensemble forecasts into Open-Meteo is already on my backlog. And yes, this will return those 90% confidence intervals.
Forecast variability is difficult to express. For example precipitation probability describes how likely rain is given the forecasted atmospheric conditions. Instead some people assume it is raining in 10% of an area.
Making use of probabilities it also tricky. If you run an ice cream shop, with high operation cost and there is a 50% probability of rain, do you open with the chance of barely anyone coming or keep closed to save cost?
Ensemble forecasts also take up a lot of disk space, because each model ensemble is stored individually.
- leifdenby 5y agoYou could store the standard deviation as well as the mean (or median) of the ensemble. That would maximally double your data volume (but would add quite a bit less with compression). The UK Met Office have done same nice work into how to optimally combine the severity and risk of an event into an impact measure
- kqr 5y agoBased just on the probability of rain, yes, that would be hard. But if I ran an ice cream shop, I would keep a simple record of the relationship between rain amounts and customers, pad it with a fat safety margin and the rest is just plugging in the numbers from the forecast.