3 ms·

So far in the 20min discussion, I like this answer best as it tries to outline the factors for even a crude estimation. I do have another variable to add that

by bfung 15y ago

So far in the 20min discussion, I like this answer best as it tries to outline the factors for even a crude estimation. I do have another variable to add that nobody has mentioned. I think the sentiment, not explicitly conveyed in the article, is that "there are less jobs for the number of employable people". And there lies the rub. Perhaps net total jobs is still on the rise, but the rate of population growth is that much faster than the rate of jobs created. And it's not flat rates, but changing rates as well. When technology provides efficiency (I'm thinking scale, atm), it would probably push rate of jobs create slightly lower. With more people on the planet, instead of competing with 1 other person for 1 spot, a person might be competing with 10 other people for 2 spots, hence the sense of joblessness, and a culprit to blame.

eric-hu 15y ago
Interesting point. In addition to population growth, you could say that this comes with progress in technology and policy, too. Countries like China and India a good place to export our jobs, at a minimum, because they're stable enough. Even if we could trade with China in the late 1950's, the Great Leap Forward would've made such trade very unattractive. Why would I want to export my jobs to a country where the average citizen isn't even fed properly, assuming I could? I posit that as countries such as North Korea and Libya stabilize, the global job growth rate will have to increase in order to main the job-to-employable-people ratio. A positive, but stable, job growth rate would not be enough. I could be totally wrong about this in that there will always be some minimum political chaos in the world, but I'm an optimist :)
cpeterso 15y ago
> Perhaps net total jobs is still on the rise, but the rate of population growth is that much faster than the rate of jobs created. The rate of population growth is declining, especially in developed nations. The UN estimates that the world population will peak at ~9B in the 2050s and then begin falling. Also, the demographic balance is changing because there will be fewer young people in the job market. So perhaps the jobs/people ratio will improve, but these same demographic changes (and increasing life expectancy) pose big questions about fewer workers supporting healthcare and government services for more older people.
mwsherman 15y ago
Well, population growth has also been the case all along (for centuries), so the "why now?" question would be the same. Increased population is also an increase in consumers.

by bfung 15y ago

eric-hu 15y ago

Interesting point. In addition to population growth, you could say that this comes with progress in technology and policy, too. Countries like China and India a good place to export our jobs, at a minimum, because they're stable enough. Even if we could trade with China in the late 1950's, the Great Leap Forward would've made such trade very unattractive. Why would I want to export my jobs to a country where the average citizen isn't even fed properly, assuming I could? I posit that as countries such as North Korea and Libya stabilize, the global job growth rate will have to increase in order to main the job-to-employable-people ratio. A positive, but stable, job growth rate would not be enough. I could be totally wrong about this in that there will always be some minimum political chaos in the world, but I'm an optimist :)

cpeterso 15y ago

> Perhaps net total jobs is still on the rise, but the rate of population growth is that much faster than the rate of jobs created. The rate of population growth is declining, especially in developed nations. The UN estimates that the world population will peak at ~9B in the 2050s and then begin falling. Also, the demographic balance is changing because there will be fewer young people in the job market. So perhaps the jobs/people ratio will improve, but these same demographic changes (and increasing life expectancy) pose big questions about fewer workers supporting healthcare and government services for more older people.

mwsherman 15y ago

Well, population growth has also been the case all along (for centuries), so the "why now?" question would be the same. Increased population is also an increase in consumers.