3 ms·
0.3% clearly can't be the real IFR, given there are places with significantly higher PFRs. E.g. 0.6% of the entire population of Peru died. Please show a sourc
by jsnell 5y ago
0.3% clearly can't be the real IFR, given there are places with significantly higher PFRs. E.g. 0.6% of the entire population of Peru died.
Please show a source for that claim about a 3.4% IFR in the IHME. As far as I know, nobody serious ever made such a claim. The serious IFR estimates from very early on were roughly 1% plus minus a little (e.g. the Imperial models were assuming a 0.9% IFR), and it looks like those initial estimates were spot on.
The exception to that is Ioannidis, who early on was claiming that the IFR would be two orders of magnitude lower than that. He predicted there would be only 10k dead in the US when there were 120 deaths. Three weeks later, there were 20k. He staked his reputation on absurd claims, and has been doubling down on borderling fraudulent research since then to support those initial mistakes.
- jrochkind1 5y agoThe actually experienced IFR/CFR depends on availability and quality of medical care, right? I don't have a cite, but I feel like I remember people suggesting (whether based on something other than their imagination I don't recall) up to 5% IFR if no medical care was received, perhaps because medical system had collapsed under demand? But in general of course what you say seems right, and I appreciate your well-informed discussion contribution, thanks.