>a totally asinine comment Why not multiply by the probability that you don't die within the next 90 days from some other event, or the probability that the ea

>a totally asinine comment Why not multiply by the probability that you don't die within the next 90 days from some other event, or the probability that the earth doesn't explode within 90 days. The likelihood that you're infected is both too hard to calculate for a given individual to be useful and, based on current epidemiological models, close enough to 1 over the long term for unvaccinated people that it doesn't make much difference. The probability used in the model presented is the probability that a random person in the UK will be infected given the same conditions seen in March of 2020 over a 90 day period. It's a useless number. Multiplying the IFR just destroys whatever useful information you could extract from the IFR in the first place.