3 ms·
12 reports in 7 years? This is the needle in a haystack of needles problem. Of course it's obvious in hindsight. But cueing the entire civilian ATC / ANG syst
by ethbr0 5y ago
12 reports in 7 years?
This is the needle in a haystack of needles problem. Of course it's obvious in hindsight.
But cueing the entire civilian ATC / ANG system to potentially shoot airliners out of the sky within 30 minutes?
Expecting that to be in place, even with overwhelming in number but unrealized reports, is unrealistic.
- sofixa 5y ago> 12 reports in 7 years? Reports on new capabilities and tactics of a terrorist organisation that has struck US targets and is considered among the most dangerous? And then you have concrete reports on the ground of terrorist-connected people taking flying lessons and asking about bigger planes. Even without hindsight that's pretty obvious things to relate and take note of.
- ethbr0 5y agoThat's making the mistake of assuming these reports were unique in some way, as opposed to being part of a stream of thousands of other reports, some including even more threatening implications. In low signal, high noise scenarios, the hindsight bias is not saying "We should have known this meant something," but rather saying "We should have given this particular thing more attention." In our world, it happens with logs. Post- or during an incident, reading back through a log to find the culprit is trivial. But how easy is it to have a log continually dump to your terminal, all day, for weeks, months, years, and identify the root cause line as it happens and before other monitoring tripwires go off?