8 ms·

So you are saying that a plausible mechanism leads to a ~50% prediction accuracy? I'm curious how this stacks up to the accuracy of other prediction methods? O

So you are saying that a plausible mechanism leads to a ~50% prediction accuracy? I'm curious how this stacks up to the accuracy of other prediction methods? Off the cuff, this one doesn't seem too bad. esp given the stochastic nature of the variable being predicted.

phreeza 5y ago
"Accuracy" in statistical terms is likely even higher because that would include the predictions of "no upcoming recession".