4 ms·

So I am still curious about what is going to happen to countries who have employed so far the "zero-covid" strategy once they finally open up. Granted, I assum

So I am still curious about what is going to happen to countries who have employed so far the "zero-covid" strategy once they finally open up. Granted, I assume most of their population will be vaccinated, but there seems to be growing evidence that natural immunity gives you at least equal, or in some cases better protection than an mRNA jab(specially against new variants). It also seems to be an established fact that older folks, who happen to be the most vulnerable group, do not respond as well to vaccines as one would've hoped. I suspect that countries like Australia, NZ and China will still have to endure reasonably big COVID waves - surely they will be attenuated by the high vax rate, but will still be deadly enough to stress their healthcare system. I do believe that they had the winning strategy against covid, but there are still unkwnown unknowns.

rossdavidh 5y ago
If you look at Australia right now, their infection rates are rising at a rapid clip. So they may have a lot more people infected soon, and the difference between them and Europe and N. America may not be that great. China probably had a lot more people infected than we (or they) know, because they were first, and there was no testing capacity at the time. Even if they were honestly forthcoming with everything they knew about, they probably had way more infections than they knew, because of going first. Now, in the case of New Zealand, you may be correct, they might be in for a hard time. Having almost nobody infected before, and then finally getting the latest, fastest-spreading variant when they do get it, might be a bad thing. But, hopefully, this is countered by the fact that people who are vaccinated first have much milder symptoms.
retrac 5y ago
Surveillance data in Canada collected Nov 2020 thru March 2021 had roughly 1 to 4% of Canadians having antibodies from previous infections, depending on province. We're now losing control with the most infectious variants. But most of us seem to still haven't had it, including most unvaccinated (about 15% of adults). Accepting we're probably all going to be exposed eventually is a bit annoying after all this, but the fully vaccinated don't have too much to worry about. The main worry remains burden on the healthcare system for treating the unvaccinated. There are only so many ICU beds -- less than half as many per capita in the USA -- and now that some regions are running out of those even the fully vaccinated are in trouble if they need other urgent medical care. The plan, if we can call it that, is to keep the rate low enough until everyone has had it that hospitalisations are manageable. One thing I've noticed is that some Americans don't appreciate how politically unacceptable it is for much of the public to get COVID-19 in countries that have had some success in containment. New Zealand appears ready to become a hermit kingdom forever if that's what it will take. Anecdotally, my mother has been fully vaccinated and looks at me like a dog with two heads when I try to explain that she's at comparable risk of serious illness to influenza when fully vaccinated. It's the plague and a "managed" exposure is unthinkable. Do not underestimate the political will there to maintain countermeasures, whether it makes sense or not.
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rossdavidh 5y ago

If you look at Australia right now, their infection rates are rising at a rapid clip. So they may have a lot more people infected soon, and the difference between them and Europe and N. America may not be that great. China probably had a lot more people infected than we (or they) know, because they were first, and there was no testing capacity at the time. Even if they were honestly forthcoming with everything they knew about, they probably had way more infections than they knew, because of going first. Now, in the case of New Zealand, you may be correct, they might be in for a hard time. Having almost nobody infected before, and then finally getting the latest, fastest-spreading variant when they do get it, might be a bad thing. But, hopefully, this is countered by the fact that people who are vaccinated first have much milder symptoms.

retrac 5y ago

Surveillance data in Canada collected Nov 2020 thru March 2021 had roughly 1 to 4% of Canadians having antibodies from previous infections, depending on province. We're now losing control with the most infectious variants. But most of us seem to still haven't had it, including most unvaccinated (about 15% of adults). Accepting we're probably all going to be exposed eventually is a bit annoying after all this, but the fully vaccinated don't have too much to worry about. The main worry remains burden on the healthcare system for treating the unvaccinated. There are only so many ICU beds -- less than half as many per capita in the USA -- and now that some regions are running out of those even the fully vaccinated are in trouble if they need other urgent medical care. The plan, if we can call it that, is to keep the rate low enough until everyone has had it that hospitalisations are manageable. One thing I've noticed is that some Americans don't appreciate how politically unacceptable it is for much of the public to get COVID-19 in countries that have had some success in containment. New Zealand appears ready to become a hermit kingdom forever if that's what it will take. Anecdotally, my mother has been fully vaccinated and looks at me like a dog with two heads when I try to explain that she's at comparable risk of serious illness to influenza when fully vaccinated. It's the plague and a "managed" exposure is unthinkable. Do not underestimate the political will there to maintain countermeasures, whether it makes sense or not.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]