4 ms·

Fed Fund Rate vs 30YT since 1970(only cherry picking this year because the data on fred is poor before this period, and end of gold standard is significant) is

Fed Fund Rate vs 30YT since 1970(only cherry picking this year because the data on fred is poor before this period, and end of gold standard is significant) is a perfect 8/8[0]. [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ENDs https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ENDs

thissuchness 5y ago
And how many degrees of freedom went into the choice of metrics to compare? Just because something went 8/8 doesn't mean it will predict the future crashes.
- ItsMonkk 5y ago
  I'd argue that minimum time frame -> maximum time frame is a more fundamental metric than any other individual yield curve.
bruce343434 5y ago
Which curve am I looking at and for what? The blue line dips a lot of times, but only sometimes does a dip coincide with a recession.
- mellavora 5y ago
  Not the OP, but I'd guess they meant "blue line greater than red line" .
  - ItsMonkk 5y ago
    Exactly. When the blue line greater than red line, shortly thereafter a recession occurs. The blue line is set directly by the Fed. No one knows exactly why this is.