4 ms·
There is strong evidence that infections have been massively under-detected since the beginning of the pandemic, by a factor of 5x to 100x [1][2]. Recent estima
by criticaltinker 5y ago
There is strong evidence that infections have been massively under-detected since the beginning of the pandemic, by a factor of 5x to 100x [1][2]. Recent estimates put the global average IFR closer to 0.15% [3], which is likely still over-estimated, and will likely continue to decrease as more data is collected.
[1] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...
[2] Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826
[3] Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID- 19: An overview of systematic evaluations
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13554 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13...
- bluepoint 5y agoThis is what I also believe. However it is really hard to count reliably. Maybe one day we will know for sure.