4 ms·

At about that time there were 400k deaths, which implies an infection fatality rate of 0.4%. This is consistent with various studies I ran across that point to

At about that time there were 400k deaths, which implies an infection fatality rate of 0.4%. This is consistent with various studies I ran across that point to a 0.2%, 0.3% fatality rate.

petermcneeley 5y ago
So about twice as bad as the flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bluepoint 5y ago
  Maybe. However if I understand correctly it is much more contagious than the flu which means that this 0.4% will die almost at the same time (say in a year), while the flu will have to circulate for years until it claims its own 0.1% (or whatever percent). I am not an expert, btw.
- tasty_freeze 5y ago
  Why not compare apples and apples? That is, because of covid, people were wearing masks, distancing, large crowds were outlawed, etc. So comparing covid stats of 2020 to flu stats of 2017-18 isn't too useful. Why not compare flu stats to covid stats in the same time window? Because of those massive, intrusive efforts to stop the spread of covid, flu numbers were/are way down. The number of flu deaths in the US in 2020 was something like ~700 (usually it is 30,000), and covid was ~400,000 deaths. So, no, not 2x worse.
  - hrfbi 5y ago
    We are comparing mortality, not spread. Masks do not help with mortality.
  - hrfbi 5y ago
    We are comparing mortality, not spread. Masks do not help with mortality.
pedrocr 5y ago
~1% with good care was closer last time I checked. There was a good paper explaining differences between locations were mostly because of demographics and the total result was in that range. 0.4% is the rate of total NYC residents who have already died for example. So for that to be the IFR NYC would have had to have 100% infection of its population. Not impossible but seems unlikely. Without good care, like when hospitals get overwhelmed by a wave, 3%+ was likely. But that heavily depends on the exact pressure and maybe we've gotten better at treating it anyway.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > So for that to be the IFR NYC would have had to have 100% infection of its population. Not impossible but seems unlikely. If NYC had 100% infection by the end of 2020, post-infection immunity is a lot worse than every study of that topic has suggested.
- a0-prw 5y ago
  The IFR is not the same for every demographic. In a population which is obese and older it will be higher. More than half of adults in New York are overweight or obese (https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/obesity.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/obesity.p...) If you are obese and contract the virus you are 113% more likely to need hospitalisation and 48% more likely to die than normal weight or overweight people. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772071 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772071
- rossdavidh 5y ago
  Important to distinguish between the infection fatality rate, and the hospitalization fatality rate. People who never know they're infected, or know they're sick but don't bother getting a PCR test because they're just going to stay home and isolate regardless, don't show up in the hospitalization fatality rate.
criticaltinker 5y ago
There is strong evidence that infections have been massively under-detected since the beginning of the pandemic, by a factor of 5x to 100x [1][2]. Recent estimates put the global average IFR closer to 0.15% [3], which is likely still over-estimated, and will likely continue to decrease as more data is collected. [1] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372... [2] Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 [3] Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID- 19: An overview of systematic evaluations https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13554 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13...
- bluepoint 5y ago
  This is what I also believe. However it is really hard to count reliably. Maybe one day we will know for sure.

At about that time there were 400k deaths, which implies an infection fatality rate of 0.4%. This is consistent with various studies I ran across that point to a 0.2%, 0.3% fatality rate.

petermcneeley 5y ago

So about twice as bad as the flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bluepoint 5y ago
Maybe. However if I understand correctly it is much more contagious than the flu which means that this 0.4% will die almost at the same time (say in a year), while the flu will have to circulate for years until it claims its own 0.1% (or whatever percent). I am not an expert, btw.
tasty_freeze 5y ago
Why not compare apples and apples? That is, because of covid, people were wearing masks, distancing, large crowds were outlawed, etc. So comparing covid stats of 2020 to flu stats of 2017-18 isn't too useful. Why not compare flu stats to covid stats in the same time window? Because of those massive, intrusive efforts to stop the spread of covid, flu numbers were/are way down. The number of flu deaths in the US in 2020 was something like ~700 (usually it is 30,000), and covid was ~400,000 deaths. So, no, not 2x worse.
- hrfbi 5y ago
  We are comparing mortality, not spread. Masks do not help with mortality.
- hrfbi 5y ago
  We are comparing mortality, not spread. Masks do not help with mortality.

pedrocr 5y ago

~1% with good care was closer last time I checked. There was a good paper explaining differences between locations were mostly because of demographics and the total result was in that range. 0.4% is the rate of total NYC residents who have already died for example. So for that to be the IFR NYC would have had to have 100% infection of its population. Not impossible but seems unlikely. Without good care, like when hospitals get overwhelmed by a wave, 3%+ was likely. But that heavily depends on the exact pressure and maybe we've gotten better at treating it anyway.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> So for that to be the IFR NYC would have had to have 100% infection of its population. Not impossible but seems unlikely. If NYC had 100% infection by the end of 2020, post-infection immunity is a lot worse than every study of that topic has suggested.
a0-prw 5y ago
The IFR is not the same for every demographic. In a population which is obese and older it will be higher. More than half of adults in New York are overweight or obese (https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/obesity.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/obesity.p...) If you are obese and contract the virus you are 113% more likely to need hospitalisation and 48% more likely to die than normal weight or overweight people. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772071 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772071
rossdavidh 5y ago
Important to distinguish between the infection fatality rate, and the hospitalization fatality rate. People who never know they're infected, or know they're sick but don't bother getting a PCR test because they're just going to stay home and isolate regardless, don't show up in the hospitalization fatality rate.

criticaltinker 5y ago

There is strong evidence that infections have been massively under-detected since the beginning of the pandemic, by a factor of 5x to 100x [1][2]. Recent estimates put the global average IFR closer to 0.15% [3], which is likely still over-estimated, and will likely continue to decrease as more data is collected. [1] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372... [2] Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826 [3] Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID- 19: An overview of systematic evaluations https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13554 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/eci.13...

bluepoint 5y ago
This is what I also believe. However it is really hard to count reliably. Maybe one day we will know for sure.