3 ms·

I think deaths are counted differently, though - everybody who dies within one month after testing positive is counted for Covid (afaik - at least in some place

I think deaths are counted differently, though - everybody who dies within one month after testing positive is counted for Covid (afaik - at least in some places). For vaccines, I am not aware of such rules. So the numbers can not easily be compared. That is the problem. As I said, I am ready to believe that Covid kills more. But what if you factor in the odds of infection, and also individual odds (age, no co-morbidities, that sort of thing)? The odds are very different for somebody in their twenties and somebody in their eighties. "Closely Monitored" - OK so where exactly is the data? "Closely Monitored" is just a call to "trust the institutions".

ceejayoz 5y ago
> "Closely Monitored" - OK so where exactly is the data? "Closely Monitored" is just a call to "trust the institutions". Submitted to the FDA, first for the EUAs, then for the full approvals, and still on an ongoing basis for longer term monitoring. They're so careful about reporting everything that they submitted a lightning strike as a potential adverse event. https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/18/covid-vaccine-volunteer-struck-by-lightning-after-moderna-injection-13774498/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/18/covid-vaccine-volunteer-struc... > I think deaths are counted differently, though - everybody who dies within one month after testing positive is counted for Covid (afaik - at least in some places). For vaccines, I am not aware of such rules. So the numbers can not easily be compared. That is the problem. Again, easily addressed. Look at total deaths, for the entire country, regardless of cause. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm If vaccines were killing anything like the numbers COVID did, you'd see it. Instead, you can see in March 2021 the excess deaths largely go away (after being elevated for more than a year) for a couple months, as vulnerable populations got protected. It doesn't tick back up until Delta hits, and even then, the spike is much smaller than previous ones.
- notanzaiiswear 5y ago
  Good point with the excess deaths (you mean because many more have been vaccinated than have been known to be infected), but there still is the issue that if you are getting the vaccine, you definitely get the vaccine, whereas it is not certain that you catch the virus. And still age and individual risk seem to matter. "They're so careful about reporting everything that they submitted a lightning strike as a potential adverse event." So how many vaccine deaths were there so far? It doesn't seem easy to get the number, even though there clearly seem to have been deaths associated with it. When I google for it, I mostly get the unreliable VAERS reports (7400 deaths so far according to https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... ).
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    > Why no official numbers? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... > During this time, VAERS received 7,439 reports of death (0.0020%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. So, that's an absolute upper limit, which would require zero normal deaths (car accidents, other illnesses, old age, etc.) in nearly 200M Americans over a seven month period of administration. Confirmed deaths: three so far, from J&J-induced blood clots. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-05-12/07-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
    - notanzaiiswear 5y ago
      It's not an absolute upper limit, as there is no guarantee every death gets entered into VAERS. Is there even a protocol for entering things into VAERS, or do people do it on a whim? (Edit: missed the "required to enter any dearth part" - in what time frame, though?) And what is the age distribution of those deaths? Edit: my issue is really that it should be age and risk dependent. I found a calculator putting my risk of death from Corona to 1:20000 - why can't I get something similar for the vaccines. Yes, the deaths from vaccinations my be few, but if you are young enough, they may still be significant compared to Corona deaths in your age group. Even that Corona risk calculator was just some obscure scientists project, why can't we get an official thing? Personally I am almost at the border to severe Corona risk, at age 49. In my case it seems risk of death from vaccination would be about 10 times lower than the risk from the virus. But at younger ages, it may start ever more unfavorable for the vaccine. Especially as the deaths in lower age groups are likely to have been ill before catching the virus. There could also be another selection bias in the sense that perhaps some people who are severely ill don't get vaccinated, but they would still catch the virus. I just would like to get a better representation of all the issues. Not some generic "vaccinations have found to be safe" statements.

ceejayoz 5y ago

> "Closely Monitored" - OK so where exactly is the data? "Closely Monitored" is just a call to "trust the institutions". Submitted to the FDA, first for the EUAs, then for the full approvals, and still on an ongoing basis for longer term monitoring. They're so careful about reporting everything that they submitted a lightning strike as a potential adverse event. https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/18/covid-vaccine-volunteer-struck-by-lightning-after-moderna-injection-13774498/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/18/covid-vaccine-volunteer-struc... > I think deaths are counted differently, though - everybody who dies within one month after testing positive is counted for Covid (afaik - at least in some places). For vaccines, I am not aware of such rules. So the numbers can not easily be compared. That is the problem. Again, easily addressed. Look at total deaths, for the entire country, regardless of cause. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm If vaccines were killing anything like the numbers COVID did, you'd see it. Instead, you can see in March 2021 the excess deaths largely go away (after being elevated for more than a year) for a couple months, as vulnerable populations got protected. It doesn't tick back up until Delta hits, and even then, the spike is much smaller than previous ones.

notanzaiiswear 5y ago
Good point with the excess deaths (you mean because many more have been vaccinated than have been known to be infected), but there still is the issue that if you are getting the vaccine, you definitely get the vaccine, whereas it is not certain that you catch the virus. And still age and individual risk seem to matter. "They're so careful about reporting everything that they submitted a lightning strike as a potential adverse event." So how many vaccine deaths were there so far? It doesn't seem easy to get the number, even though there clearly seem to have been deaths associated with it. When I google for it, I mostly get the unreliable VAERS reports (7400 deaths so far according to https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... ).
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > Why no official numbers? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... > During this time, VAERS received 7,439 reports of death (0.0020%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. So, that's an absolute upper limit, which would require zero normal deaths (car accidents, other illnesses, old age, etc.) in nearly 200M Americans over a seven month period of administration. Confirmed deaths: three so far, from J&J-induced blood clots. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-05-12/07-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
  - notanzaiiswear 5y ago
    It's not an absolute upper limit, as there is no guarantee every death gets entered into VAERS. Is there even a protocol for entering things into VAERS, or do people do it on a whim? (Edit: missed the "required to enter any dearth part" - in what time frame, though?) And what is the age distribution of those deaths? Edit: my issue is really that it should be age and risk dependent. I found a calculator putting my risk of death from Corona to 1:20000 - why can't I get something similar for the vaccines. Yes, the deaths from vaccinations my be few, but if you are young enough, they may still be significant compared to Corona deaths in your age group. Even that Corona risk calculator was just some obscure scientists project, why can't we get an official thing? Personally I am almost at the border to severe Corona risk, at age 49. In my case it seems risk of death from vaccination would be about 10 times lower than the risk from the virus. But at younger ages, it may start ever more unfavorable for the vaccine. Especially as the deaths in lower age groups are likely to have been ill before catching the virus. There could also be another selection bias in the sense that perhaps some people who are severely ill don't get vaccinated, but they would still catch the virus. I just would like to get a better representation of all the issues. Not some generic "vaccinations have found to be safe" statements.