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> everyone needs to take the vaccine This is simply not true, anyone who claims this is ignoring a vast body of scientific evidence supporting the fact that in

> everyone needs to take the vaccine This is simply not true, anyone who claims this is ignoring a vast body of scientific evidence supporting the fact that individuals who’ve recovered from previous infection will be at least as well protected as vaccinated individuals against reinfection. If you were to say “most people who don’t already have natural immunity ought to be vaccinated” that would be a much more sensible recommendation, in-line with general scientific consensus (and public health policies in other countries).

nemothekid 5y ago
>If you were to say “most people who don’t already have natural immunity ought to be vaccinated” that would be a much more sensible recommendation, in-line with general scientific consensus (and public health policies in other countries). It might be scientific consensus, but I do not consider this good public policy. There are several problems: 1. How do you verify if someone has gotten COVID already? The PCR test can report negative for as short as 2 weeks after symptoms go away. 2. Do you then parallel documentation where people have vaccine documents or positive test requirements? 3. How should businesses/schools treat positive testing individuals who did not get vaccinated? 4. Should the government just wait for the unvaccinated to get COVID and just roll the dice if they survive or not? I'm not sure how you can seriously argue that point versus the massively simpler to execute policy plan of just getting everyone vaccinated.
- bobbytit 5y ago
  We are not cattle no matter what you public policy wonks have been led to believe. It is possible to test to differentiate between those currently shedding the virus and those who are recovered with natural immunity. Those with natural immunity actually do themselves harm by taking a double vaccine dose according to some immunologists.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  > 1. How do you verify if someone has gotten COVID already? The PCR test can report negative for as short as 2 weeks after symptoms go away. Antibody tests?
mcguire 5y ago
"Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm... "Effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity following second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positives but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher among those vaccinated following a prior infection and younger adults." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v... "We examined whether sera from recovered and naïve donors, collected before and after immunizations with existing messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines, could neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B.1.351 variants. Prevaccination sera from recovered donors neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B.1.351, but a single immunization boosted neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold. Neutralization was a result of antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain and was not boosted by a second immunization. Immunization of naïve donors also elicited cross-neutralizing responses but at lower titers. Our study highlights the importance of vaccinating both uninfected and previously infected persons to elicit cross-variant neutralizing antibodies." https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abg9175 https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abg9175
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  1) That CDC study has a relatively small sample size (N=738) and uses data from a single state during a 2-month period. The confidence interval on the "2.34" odds ratio is large (95% CI = 1.58–3.47). Most importantly, a tremendous amount of literature contradicts those findings. Nearly every large scale and long term serological study has demonstrated that immunity acquired through previous infection is at least equally effective as vaccination in preventing reinfection. - A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed 7 months following primary infection. This time period is the minimum probable effect because seroconversions were not included. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. [1] (N=25,661) - In conclusion, documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were exceedingly rare, with an incidence of 0.3 infections for every 1000 persons-week, and none were severe. Seroconversion after symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection seems to be associated with a 10-fold reduction in risk of successive viral infection contamination, lasting at least 8 months. [2] (N=1,494) - The study results suggest that reinfections are rare events and patients who have recovered from COVID-19 have a lower risk of reinfection. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 appears to confer a protective effect for at least a year, which is similar to the protection reported in recent vaccine studies. [3] (N=15,075) - Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. [4] (N=192,967) - The degree of protection (10-fold) associated with seropositivity appears to be comparable to that observed in the initial reports of the efficacy of mRNA vaccines in large clinical trials.* [5] (N=3,257,478) 2) The preprint you cite is a "large community-based survey". I'll trade you pre-prints, this one is a retrospective observational study with data out of Israel [6]: "This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant." 3) Natural infection elicits antibodies that vaccination alone does not (for example nucelocapsid protein antibodies) [7]. The paper you cited does not provide evidence that vaccination on top of existing immunity confers any significant benefit to health outcomes in the face of viral mutation and variants of concern. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/ [2] Risk of Reinfection After Seroconversion to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A Population-based Propensity-score Matched Cohort Study https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab495/6287116 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... [3] Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection 1 Year After Primary Infection in a Population in Lombardy, Italy https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2780557 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [4] SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537021001413 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258953702... [5] Association of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositive Antibody Test With Risk of Future Infection https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2776810 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [6] Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... [7] Immunogenicity and crossreactivity of antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2: utility and limitations in seroprevalence and immunity studies https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879156/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879156/

nemothekid 5y ago

>If you were to say “most people who don’t already have natural immunity ought to be vaccinated” that would be a much more sensible recommendation, in-line with general scientific consensus (and public health policies in other countries). It might be scientific consensus, but I do not consider this good public policy. There are several problems: 1. How do you verify if someone has gotten COVID already? The PCR test can report negative for as short as 2 weeks after symptoms go away. 2. Do you then parallel documentation where people have vaccine documents or positive test requirements? 3. How should businesses/schools treat positive testing individuals who did not get vaccinated? 4. Should the government just wait for the unvaccinated to get COVID and just roll the dice if they survive or not? I'm not sure how you can seriously argue that point versus the massively simpler to execute policy plan of just getting everyone vaccinated.

bobbytit 5y ago
We are not cattle no matter what you public policy wonks have been led to believe. It is possible to test to differentiate between those currently shedding the virus and those who are recovered with natural immunity. Those with natural immunity actually do themselves harm by taking a double vaccine dose according to some immunologists.
josephcsible 5y ago
> 1. How do you verify if someone has gotten COVID already? The PCR test can report negative for as short as 2 weeks after symptoms go away. Antibody tests?

mcguire 5y ago

"Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm... "Effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity following second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positives but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher among those vaccinated following a prior infection and younger adults." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v... "We examined whether sera from recovered and naïve donors, collected before and after immunizations with existing messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines, could neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B.1.351 variants. Prevaccination sera from recovered donors neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B.1.351, but a single immunization boosted neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold. Neutralization was a result of antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain and was not boosted by a second immunization. Immunization of naïve donors also elicited cross-neutralizing responses but at lower titers. Our study highlights the importance of vaccinating both uninfected and previously infected persons to elicit cross-variant neutralizing antibodies." https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abg9175 https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abg9175

criticaltinker 5y ago
1) That CDC study has a relatively small sample size (N=738) and uses data from a single state during a 2-month period. The confidence interval on the "2.34" odds ratio is large (95% CI = 1.58–3.47). Most importantly, a tremendous amount of literature contradicts those findings. Nearly every large scale and long term serological study has demonstrated that immunity acquired through previous infection is at least equally effective as vaccination in preventing reinfection. - A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed 7 months following primary infection. This time period is the minimum probable effect because seroconversions were not included. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. [1] (N=25,661) - In conclusion, documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were exceedingly rare, with an incidence of 0.3 infections for every 1000 persons-week, and none were severe. Seroconversion after symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection seems to be associated with a 10-fold reduction in risk of successive viral infection contamination, lasting at least 8 months. [2] (N=1,494) - The study results suggest that reinfections are rare events and patients who have recovered from COVID-19 have a lower risk of reinfection. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 appears to confer a protective effect for at least a year, which is similar to the protection reported in recent vaccine studies. [3] (N=15,075) - Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. [4] (N=192,967) - The degree of protection (10-fold) associated with seropositivity appears to be comparable to that observed in the initial reports of the efficacy of mRNA vaccines in large clinical trials.* [5] (N=3,257,478) 2) The preprint you cite is a "large community-based survey". I'll trade you pre-prints, this one is a retrospective observational study with data out of Israel [6]: "This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant." 3) Natural infection elicits antibodies that vaccination alone does not (for example nucelocapsid protein antibodies) [7]. The paper you cited does not provide evidence that vaccination on top of existing immunity confers any significant benefit to health outcomes in the face of viral mutation and variants of concern. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/ [2] Risk of Reinfection After Seroconversion to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A Population-based Propensity-score Matched Cohort Study https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab495/6287116 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... [3] Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection 1 Year After Primary Infection in a Population in Lombardy, Italy https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2780557 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [4] SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537021001413 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258953702... [5] Association of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositive Antibody Test With Risk of Future Infection https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2776810 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [6] Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... [7] Immunogenicity and crossreactivity of antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2: utility and limitations in seroprevalence and immunity studies https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879156/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879156/