4 ms·

The Airport Delay Fallacy

• renewiltord 5y ago
  Model as birth-death process, then this reveals as survivorship bias.
• hyperman1 5y ago
  I see something similar happen in all kinds of support roles. E.g. a DBA complaining about how bad the developers were for using a database. It turns out about 95% never needed anything but minimal support. 4% needed regular handholding. 1% did all kinds of stupid things, causing 90% of his support work. He only saw the worst devs.
  • bradknowles 5y ago
    That’s a normal looking distribution for a support job. The DBA made the mistake of thinking that his job was to administer the database, when in fact the real job is to support the worst of the worst pain-in-the-ass developers.
    • hyperman1 5y ago
      Yep. But how many support people realize it?