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Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. Just remember to start with an amount you are comfo

by lowkey 5y ago

Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. Just remember to start with an amount you are comfortable risking and then do your own research. It's really the only way to understand the fundamentals of why crypto is worth anything, what is the utility, what is wrong with the fiat system, and focus on the needs of the underbanked in developing nations to understand the use cases. This isn't a first world revolution. Unless you are underbanked you will need to exhert effort to understand the problems crypto solves.

GDC7 5y ago
> Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. It actually seems the perfect number. You don't want to own anything that is priced for perfect execution for the next 10 years down the road. The rational move is to short because in the best case scenario of perfect execution you get to keep your money. No downside, maximum upside. An example is Microsoft stock 2003-2014. It achieved everything Gates laid out in the 80s and 90s as the way of the future but the stock stayed flat. During this time Windows appeared everywhere from the Kremlin to the ISS and the vision of a PC on every desk and in every home was accomplished. Problem is Gates and the dot com bubble hype were so convincing and compelling in making the case for people to invest in Microsoft that everybody gave him a blank check. When the whole world is anticipating that something will be the next big thing there is no way to make money, because money is made in volatility and uncertanety
- wmf 5y ago
  If I understand what you mean, this isn't correct. The stock to flow model predicts that BTC should already be over $100K and replacement of investment gold predicts a price around $400K IIRC. Wilder theories like usage of crypto as a medium of exchange predict even higher prices.

by lowkey 5y ago

GDC7 5y ago

> Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. It actually seems the perfect number. You don't want to own anything that is priced for perfect execution for the next 10 years down the road. The rational move is to short because in the best case scenario of perfect execution you get to keep your money. No downside, maximum upside. An example is Microsoft stock 2003-2014. It achieved everything Gates laid out in the 80s and 90s as the way of the future but the stock stayed flat. During this time Windows appeared everywhere from the Kremlin to the ISS and the vision of a PC on every desk and in every home was accomplished. Problem is Gates and the dot com bubble hype were so convincing and compelling in making the case for people to invest in Microsoft that everybody gave him a blank check. When the whole world is anticipating that something will be the next big thing there is no way to make money, because money is made in volatility and uncertanety

wmf 5y ago
If I understand what you mean, this isn't correct. The stock to flow model predicts that BTC should already be over $100K and replacement of investment gold predicts a price around $400K IIRC. Wilder theories like usage of crypto as a medium of exchange predict even higher prices.