5 ms·

Show HN: Time Series of CDC's Covid-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Reporting

7 points by nanis 5y ago

The CDC have been providing "COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting"[1] information for points in time at close to weekly intervals. Every update erases the previous information and there doesn't seem to be an easily accessible table of these data. Snapshots of the page can be found on archive.today[2] and I have saved both those and some recent manually downloaded copies from cdc.gov. Because copying & pasting by hand is error-prone, I wrote some code to extract the bits and pieces. The repo is `nanis/covid19-breakthrough` on GitHub[3]. Snapshots are in the `snapshots` directory. There is also a CSV containing the time series of reported numbers of non-fatal hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated[4]. `out/chart.html` shows the time series of fully vaccinated population in millions, hospitalizations and deaths among the fully vaccinated per 100,000 fully vaccinated individuals. You can view it locally by running a simple local web server[5]. There is a copy online[6]. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html [2]: https://archive.today/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html [3]: https://github.com/nanis/covid19-breakthrough [4]: https://github.com/nanis/covid19-breakthrough/blob/11bb7c7495f7c417504971ab8c65aa1f5921baa1/out/2021-09-10.csv [5]: https://gist.github.com/willurd/5720255 [6]: https://www.covid2020.icu/vaccine-breakthrough/

rossdavidh 5y ago
Interesting work! So of course, I suggest new work for you. :) It would be interesting to put a line for the general, or even non-vaccinated population, so that the growth rate among the vaccinated population would have something to compare to. Perhaps the graph could be just below the existing one, with the same x-axis. But again, thanks for making this, it is interesting!
- nanis 5y ago
  Thanks. Currently, this is just what's found in those CDC releases, I am not joining with anything else, but then it's only the first iteration.
peteradio 5y ago
Screencaps of the outputs please! edit: Actually I see you posted on your twitter some screenshots, thanks! edit2: Care to provide a summary of what you see in the data? I see hosptilizations/deaths are on the rise but is it just in proportion to the number of people vaccinated?
- nanis 5y ago
  Screenshot of the chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-86fSrXIAgmddQ?format=png&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-86fSrXIAgmddQ?format=png&name=... Screenshot of Biden's claim of 1/160,000 hospitalization rate among fully vaccinated: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-4NQBFWEAMzATQ?format=png&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-4NQBFWEAMzATQ?format=png&name=... Current rate of known non-fatal hospitalization from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is 5.1/100,000 which is 8 times the rate Biden mentioned. It is also 3 times what it was on 6/1. Current rate of known deaths from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is 1.2/100,000. Biden did not make a claim about that number. However, the fatality rate is 4 times what it was on 6/1. Therefore, known hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is rising faster than the current number of fully vaccinated individuals. However, this is hard to interpret because there is a lag between arriving at "fully vaccinated" status and getting infected. Then, there is another lag before one might be hospitalized. Then, there is another lag before one might die. From the way the rates have been rising, it seems to me we have not arrived at a point where we can deduce a decent guesstimate of real life probability of hospitalization and death among fully vaccinated. It seems we'll be lucky to have the hospitalization rate stabilize around 1/10,000 and death rate stabilize around 3/100,000. Note the phase3 trials lasted about 5-6 months[1,2] and they did not enroll a lot of people at risk. Now, it seems like, there is consensus that whatever protection the vaccines confer doesn't last more than five or so months past achievement of "fully vaccinated" status. As for being able to compare with "unvaccinated", we need proper data for that, but there is not much out there. Statements like "98% of hospitalizations since January 1 were among the unvaccinated" do not mean anything as the composition of the population is not constant lumping everything together removes information needed to properly evaluate what's happening. [1]: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta... [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430...

7 points by nanis 5y ago

rossdavidh 5y ago

Interesting work! So of course, I suggest new work for you. :) It would be interesting to put a line for the general, or even non-vaccinated population, so that the growth rate among the vaccinated population would have something to compare to. Perhaps the graph could be just below the existing one, with the same x-axis. But again, thanks for making this, it is interesting!

nanis 5y ago
Thanks. Currently, this is just what's found in those CDC releases, I am not joining with anything else, but then it's only the first iteration.

peteradio 5y ago

Screencaps of the outputs please! edit: Actually I see you posted on your twitter some screenshots, thanks! edit2: Care to provide a summary of what you see in the data? I see hosptilizations/deaths are on the rise but is it just in proportion to the number of people vaccinated?

nanis 5y ago
Screenshot of the chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-86fSrXIAgmddQ?format=png&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-86fSrXIAgmddQ?format=png&name=... Screenshot of Biden's claim of 1/160,000 hospitalization rate among fully vaccinated: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-4NQBFWEAMzATQ?format=png&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-4NQBFWEAMzATQ?format=png&name=... Current rate of known non-fatal hospitalization from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is 5.1/100,000 which is 8 times the rate Biden mentioned. It is also 3 times what it was on 6/1. Current rate of known deaths from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is 1.2/100,000. Biden did not make a claim about that number. However, the fatality rate is 4 times what it was on 6/1. Therefore, known hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 among the fully vaccinated is rising faster than the current number of fully vaccinated individuals. However, this is hard to interpret because there is a lag between arriving at "fully vaccinated" status and getting infected. Then, there is another lag before one might be hospitalized. Then, there is another lag before one might die. From the way the rates have been rising, it seems to me we have not arrived at a point where we can deduce a decent guesstimate of real life probability of hospitalization and death among fully vaccinated. It seems we'll be lucky to have the hospitalization rate stabilize around 1/10,000 and death rate stabilize around 3/100,000. Note the phase3 trials lasted about 5-6 months[1,2] and they did not enroll a lot of people at risk. Now, it seems like, there is consensus that whatever protection the vaccines confer doesn't last more than five or so months past achievement of "fully vaccinated" status. As for being able to compare with "unvaccinated", we need proper data for that, but there is not much out there. Statements like "98% of hospitalizations since January 1 were among the unvaccinated" do not mean anything as the composition of the population is not constant lumping everything together removes information needed to properly evaluate what's happening. [1]: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta... [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430...