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Can someone paste the article here? The title has got my attention. I own $0 of crypto and am wondering if I am making a mistake or not.

by rblion 5y ago

Biba89 5y ago
If you are happy and satisfied with your current life, then you don’t make any mistakes, no matter if there are cryptocurrencies or not. If you don’t understand cryptocurrencies, do not risk your fiat money. If you want to understand, use demo accounts and learn about every crypto product and why it has trading volume, is it because of market manipulation or there are many people who believes in it and even use it in some game, applications, etc.
guiambros 5y ago
https://archive.is/aDMi3 https://archive.is/aDMi3 But to save a few minutes: it's a 2,800+ words article talking about the history of cryptocurrencies, with a handful of personal stories weaved in. Read if you have no idea what crypto is and is curious about its origins. If you've been following the space and its evolution, nothing to see here.
lowkey 5y ago
Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. Just remember to start with an amount you are comfortable risking and then do your own research. It's really the only way to understand the fundamentals of why crypto is worth anything, what is the utility, what is wrong with the fiat system, and focus on the needs of the underbanked in developing nations to understand the use cases. This isn't a first world revolution. Unless you are underbanked you will need to exhert effort to understand the problems crypto solves.
- GDC7 5y ago
  > Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. It actually seems the perfect number. You don't want to own anything that is priced for perfect execution for the next 10 years down the road. The rational move is to short because in the best case scenario of perfect execution you get to keep your money. No downside, maximum upside. An example is Microsoft stock 2003-2014. It achieved everything Gates laid out in the 80s and 90s as the way of the future but the stock stayed flat. During this time Windows appeared everywhere from the Kremlin to the ISS and the vision of a PC on every desk and in every home was accomplished. Problem is Gates and the dot com bubble hype were so convincing and compelling in making the case for people to invest in Microsoft that everybody gave him a blank check. When the whole world is anticipating that something will be the next big thing there is no way to make money, because money is made in volatility and uncertanety
  - wmf 5y ago
    If I understand what you mean, this isn't correct. The stock to flow model predicts that BTC should already be over $100K and replacement of investment gold predicts a price around $400K IIRC. Wilder theories like usage of crypto as a medium of exchange predict even higher prices.
MikeDelta 5y ago
You are never making a mistake by not investing and instead keeping your savings. You might be making an opportunity loss, but mistakes are when you lose all your money because you put it in something that you heard someone telling you about. Past result of an investment is not a guarantee for future returns, so if many people got rich in something in the past years, doesn't mean others will in the next years. Arguments like 'fear of losing out' and 'making a mistake by not doing it' are absolutely the wrong ones in an investment decision. These lead to irrational choices that can result in sleepless nights and misery. These are the drivers for a mania or bubble. Instead think of 'can I handle the loss?', 'am I comfortable with the risk/reward profile?' and 'do I understand what I am doing?' This last point I do not mean personally, but many people and companies have burned themselves seriously with complex derivatives that they had no idea of how dangerous they were. If you make your investments with well-thought arguments, then you will still be able to sleep at night and live with yourself if it goes bad. (Things can always go bad, no matter what people tell you with their historic charts.)
- bradwood 5y ago
  > You are never making a mistake by not investing and instead keeping your savings. Not necessarily. If the monetary unit of those savings is being debased at an astronomical rate. That's like expecting your iceberg of savings not to melt when the FED just turned up the heat! Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
aorth 5y ago
> Can someone paste the article here? You can paste the title of the article in Google in a private window and you will be able to read it because FT.com wants the traffic from Google. As for your concerns: my advice is to stay far away from "crypto". It's literally just a huge multi-level marketing scam and 100% risk. There is no intrinsic value in "crypto"—unlike a house or a piece of land or any other thing actually produced in the real world. You may as well just go follow stock advice on Reddit's Wall Street Bets. Hey, you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich and going broke! If you're under thirty years old, let's say, you can play with some riskier investment options because you have time to earn that money back, but if you're getting older you should try to find some low-expense ratio index funds to invest in and hold for a decade or two (try on Vanguard or Schwab). Here are some very technically savvy people calling bullshit on "crypto" recently, with salient arguments and inside experience: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1399058952336277505 https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1399058952336277505, https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2021/06/26/Shorting-Bitcoin https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2021/06/26/Shorting-..., https://twitter.com/ummjackson/status/1415353984617914370 https://twitter.com/ummjackson/status/1415353984617914370

Can someone paste the article here? The title has got my attention. I own $0 of crypto and am wondering if I am making a mistake or not.

by rblion 5y ago

Can someone paste the article here? The title has got my attention. I own $0 of crypto and am wondering if I am making a mistake or not.

Biba89 5y ago

If you are happy and satisfied with your current life, then you don’t make any mistakes, no matter if there are cryptocurrencies or not. If you don’t understand cryptocurrencies, do not risk your fiat money. If you want to understand, use demo accounts and learn about every crypto product and why it has trading volume, is it because of market manipulation or there are many people who believes in it and even use it in some game, applications, etc.

guiambros 5y ago

https://archive.is/aDMi3 https://archive.is/aDMi3 But to save a few minutes: it's a 2,800+ words article talking about the history of cryptocurrencies, with a handful of personal stories weaved in. Read if you have no idea what crypto is and is curious about its origins. If you've been following the space and its evolution, nothing to see here.

lowkey 5y ago

Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. Just remember to start with an amount you are comfortable risking and then do your own research. It's really the only way to understand the fundamentals of why crypto is worth anything, what is the utility, what is wrong with the fiat system, and focus on the needs of the underbanked in developing nations to understand the use cases. This isn't a first world revolution. Unless you are underbanked you will need to exhert effort to understand the problems crypto solves.

GDC7 5y ago
> Crypto is new and risky but 0% crypto allocation is most likely the wrong number at this point in the game. It actually seems the perfect number. You don't want to own anything that is priced for perfect execution for the next 10 years down the road. The rational move is to short because in the best case scenario of perfect execution you get to keep your money. No downside, maximum upside. An example is Microsoft stock 2003-2014. It achieved everything Gates laid out in the 80s and 90s as the way of the future but the stock stayed flat. During this time Windows appeared everywhere from the Kremlin to the ISS and the vision of a PC on every desk and in every home was accomplished. Problem is Gates and the dot com bubble hype were so convincing and compelling in making the case for people to invest in Microsoft that everybody gave him a blank check. When the whole world is anticipating that something will be the next big thing there is no way to make money, because money is made in volatility and uncertanety
- wmf 5y ago
  If I understand what you mean, this isn't correct. The stock to flow model predicts that BTC should already be over $100K and replacement of investment gold predicts a price around $400K IIRC. Wilder theories like usage of crypto as a medium of exchange predict even higher prices.

MikeDelta 5y ago

You are never making a mistake by not investing and instead keeping your savings. You might be making an opportunity loss, but mistakes are when you lose all your money because you put it in something that you heard someone telling you about. Past result of an investment is not a guarantee for future returns, so if many people got rich in something in the past years, doesn't mean others will in the next years. Arguments like 'fear of losing out' and 'making a mistake by not doing it' are absolutely the wrong ones in an investment decision. These lead to irrational choices that can result in sleepless nights and misery. These are the drivers for a mania or bubble. Instead think of 'can I handle the loss?', 'am I comfortable with the risk/reward profile?' and 'do I understand what I am doing?' This last point I do not mean personally, but many people and companies have burned themselves seriously with complex derivatives that they had no idea of how dangerous they were. If you make your investments with well-thought arguments, then you will still be able to sleep at night and live with yourself if it goes bad. (Things can always go bad, no matter what people tell you with their historic charts.)

bradwood 5y ago
> You are never making a mistake by not investing and instead keeping your savings. Not necessarily. If the monetary unit of those savings is being debased at an astronomical rate. That's like expecting your iceberg of savings not to melt when the FED just turned up the heat! Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

aorth 5y ago

> Can someone paste the article here? You can paste the title of the article in Google in a private window and you will be able to read it because FT.com wants the traffic from Google. As for your concerns: my advice is to stay far away from "crypto". It's literally just a huge multi-level marketing scam and 100% risk. There is no intrinsic value in "crypto"—unlike a house or a piece of land or any other thing actually produced in the real world. You may as well just go follow stock advice on Reddit's Wall Street Bets. Hey, you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich and going broke! If you're under thirty years old, let's say, you can play with some riskier investment options because you have time to earn that money back, but if you're getting older you should try to find some low-expense ratio index funds to invest in and hold for a decade or two (try on Vanguard or Schwab). Here are some very technically savvy people calling bullshit on "crypto" recently, with salient arguments and inside experience: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1399058952336277505 https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1399058952336277505, https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2021/06/26/Shorting-Bitcoin https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2021/06/26/Shorting-..., https://twitter.com/ummjackson/status/1415353984617914370 https://twitter.com/ummjackson/status/1415353984617914370