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There seems to be consensus that the delta wave won't end until the US reaches at least 85% herd immunity (either through vaccination or infection). It's clear

There seems to be consensus that the delta wave won't end until the US reaches at least 85% herd immunity (either through vaccination or infection). It's clear from polling that there is a large enough minority of American adults who won't take the vaccine voluntarily (under any circumstances) to achieve this level of immunity, so that leaves infection. Letting covid 'rip' through the remaining unvaccinated population will bring tens or hundreds of thousands of additional, unnecessary deaths, even with wide availability of current therapeutics. If you want the pandemic, masking, lockdowns etc to end for good, it seems a vaccine mandate is the only way forward (absent some as-yet-to-be-invented technology). What am I missing here? Is there some other way to 'convince' anti-vaxxers to take it? Is 100k+ Americans dead an 'acceptable loss' to maintain some perception of 'medical freedom?'

xur17 5y ago
I'm curious - of the folks that have not gotten vaccinated, do we have an idea of how many haven't gotten it because they strongly do not want to get it, and how many haven't gotten it for other less strong reasons (inability to get time off work, mixed signals from social media, etc)?
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  I don't know that there is much data specific to the COVID vaccine, but for vaccines in general the overwhelming concern seems to be the (false) perception that vaccines are not safe: https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-01-14/survey-fewer-people-now-support-vaccinating-their-kids-than-in-2001 https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/...
- a_conservative 5y ago
  For me personally, it's decreased general trust. I don't see the establishment as having a lot of credibility at this point. Bad smells that make me distrust: Changing definitions of the word vaccine, so that the Covid 19 injections can be considered a vaccine. It becoming impermissible to question the vaccine. If you tell me there isn't room to doubt, then my response to you is bullshit. I've been a skeptic my entire life, and it has served me well. If I'm wrong this time and I die because of it, so be it.
  - namlem 5y ago
    In what way are these vaccines not vaccines? Because they are based on mRNA rather than inactive viruses or virus fragments?
    - a_conservative 5y ago
      I'm not claiming that they aren't vaccines. Words change definition to follow usage. However, Merriam-Webster literally changed their definition of vaccine in the past 6 months or so. [0][1] My argument is that by including these injections under the term vaccine, they are getting a halo effect from past vaccines that isn't warranted. Questioning vaccines is the lowest of the low, almost unthinkable, but these "vaccines" aren't like the old ones. [0] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/vaccine https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/vaccine [1] https://archive.is/XGfdr https://archive.is/XGfdr
      - Hallucinaut 5y ago
        Then why wouldn't you just take one of the vaccines that meets the old definition of vaccine that you hold the esteem for? I get that anything new is less trustworthy by default, but that's only two mRNA "vaccines". The rest are attenuated, or inactivated, or sub-units of other viruses or COVID itself. In all cases they make your body respond to proteins, that's all. Given the respective effective rates from mRNA vs. traditional vaccine methods if anything it's the halo effect of the effectiveness of the mRNA that are boosting the success rates.
      - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
        The J&J vaccine is adenovirus. It’s the same class of vaccine as the flu shot we have had for decades. If you’re really concerned just take that one.
      - pseudalopex 5y ago
        Their old definition didn't match usage. Diphtheria and tetanus vaccines use inactivated toxins for example. And the same dictionary said viruses are usually regarded as nonliving extremely complex molecules.[1] I checked 2 dictionaries from before 2020. Neither said a vaccine had to be made from certain things. [1] http://web.archive.org/web/20190118214500/https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/virus http://web.archive.org/web/20190118214500/https://www.merria...
- angelzen 5y ago
  Vaccine protection seems to substantially diminish over time / virus evolution. Israel is boosting with third shot. UK August data shows same rate of infection vax/unvax for over 40s, and only half reduction in infection rate for under 40s. (Yeah, I know, severe infection protection is much better, so far). Pfizer CEO is on-record concerned about vaccine escape and ready to prepare new jabs on a 3 month notice. Covid is here to stay. What is the long term plan? 'Boost' every 6 months with an ever changing cocktail that has not passed any clinical trials? In perpetuity? This is insanity. I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. Some studies have shown it is much stronger than vaccine protection. I hope they are right, or else the future is grim. Personally I really really hope that vax + mild infection works. WE DO have a population for which natural immunity can be acquired at minimum cost: under 18s. For which the risk of covid death is ~1-2% of the already tiny risk of death from all other causes. Leave the kids alone. What doesn't help: Messaging that so incredibly determined to pretend that natural immunity plays no role and that covid risk for a 10 year old is the same as covid risk for an 80 year old (in fact it is 1/1000).
  - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
    > I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. We get annual boosters for many viruses. If you’re really hell bent on getting covid, your likelihood of severe illness is 10x less with at least one dose of the vaccine, and your immunity will be higher than infection alone. The messaging that natural immunity is the only way out, and that getting the virus is somehow ‘better’ than the vaccine is ludicrous.
    - angelzen 5y ago
      There are no mandatory annual shots. Tired of personalization of the disease. I'm not 'hell bent' to do anything. Covid is endemic, there is no herd immunity. The only question is how to manage the severity of the disease, for all the infection events to occur in the long run. I'm vaccinated and keep an eye on https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-updates https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candida.... Or do I need to tattoo 'Pfizer' on my forehead to be allowed to participate in society?
coryfklein 5y ago
> Letting covid 'rip' through the remaining unvaccinated population Aren't unvaccinated individuals the ones who made this decision? You may disagree with the conclusion of their dubious risk analyses, but if you choose not to get vaccinated then all bets are off. Or is it that the risk that the unvaccinated pose to the vaccinated are so high that they warrant strong arm solutions?
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  The more unvaccinated people there are, the more cases of severe covid there will be. This puts tremendous strain on the hospital system, and if they’re uninsured it means the taxpayers are covering the cost of their treatment. Rampant spread also promotes the emergence of new variants.It’s not only a personal decision— declining the shot negatively impacts your community, workplace and the country as a whole.
  - CryptoPunk 5y ago
    We have never used this justification to institute invasive laws to prohibit habits that lead to obesity, or to prohibit drug-use or alcohol consumption for that matter. And such laws would always come from the social conservative right, if they were ever instituted, not the people advocating vaccine mandates. Now socialization of medical expenses is being used to rationalize institutionalized discrimination against the unvaccinated, because it aligns with a particular political tribe's agenda. A tribe that also advocates the socialization of medical expenses.
    - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
      > We have never used this justification to institute invasive laws to prohibit habits that lead to obesity, or to prohibit drug-use or alcohol consumption for that matter. Correct, these things are not contagious to others.
      - disneygibson 5y ago
        There is significant research indicating that these things are socially contagious.
zardo 5y ago
> Letting covid 'rip' through the remaining unvaccinated population will bring tens or hundreds of thousands of additional, unnecessary deaths, even with wide availability of current therapeutics. The more cases, the more the variants. Getting everyone infected might bring about herd immunity to one strain, and create a dozen more.

xur17 5y ago

I'm curious - of the folks that have not gotten vaccinated, do we have an idea of how many haven't gotten it because they strongly do not want to get it, and how many haven't gotten it for other less strong reasons (inability to get time off work, mixed signals from social media, etc)?

jasonlaramburu 5y ago
I don't know that there is much data specific to the COVID vaccine, but for vaccines in general the overwhelming concern seems to be the (false) perception that vaccines are not safe: https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-01-14/survey-fewer-people-now-support-vaccinating-their-kids-than-in-2001 https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/...
a_conservative 5y ago
For me personally, it's decreased general trust. I don't see the establishment as having a lot of credibility at this point. Bad smells that make me distrust: Changing definitions of the word vaccine, so that the Covid 19 injections can be considered a vaccine. It becoming impermissible to question the vaccine. If you tell me there isn't room to doubt, then my response to you is bullshit. I've been a skeptic my entire life, and it has served me well. If I'm wrong this time and I die because of it, so be it.
- namlem 5y ago
  In what way are these vaccines not vaccines? Because they are based on mRNA rather than inactive viruses or virus fragments?
  - a_conservative 5y ago
    I'm not claiming that they aren't vaccines. Words change definition to follow usage. However, Merriam-Webster literally changed their definition of vaccine in the past 6 months or so. [0][1] My argument is that by including these injections under the term vaccine, they are getting a halo effect from past vaccines that isn't warranted. Questioning vaccines is the lowest of the low, almost unthinkable, but these "vaccines" aren't like the old ones. [0] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/vaccine https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/vaccine [1] https://archive.is/XGfdr https://archive.is/XGfdr
    - Hallucinaut 5y ago
      Then why wouldn't you just take one of the vaccines that meets the old definition of vaccine that you hold the esteem for? I get that anything new is less trustworthy by default, but that's only two mRNA "vaccines". The rest are attenuated, or inactivated, or sub-units of other viruses or COVID itself. In all cases they make your body respond to proteins, that's all. Given the respective effective rates from mRNA vs. traditional vaccine methods if anything it's the halo effect of the effectiveness of the mRNA that are boosting the success rates.
    - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
      The J&J vaccine is adenovirus. It’s the same class of vaccine as the flu shot we have had for decades. If you’re really concerned just take that one.
    - pseudalopex 5y ago
      Their old definition didn't match usage. Diphtheria and tetanus vaccines use inactivated toxins for example. And the same dictionary said viruses are usually regarded as nonliving extremely complex molecules.[1] I checked 2 dictionaries from before 2020. Neither said a vaccine had to be made from certain things. [1] http://web.archive.org/web/20190118214500/https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/virus http://web.archive.org/web/20190118214500/https://www.merria...
angelzen 5y ago
Vaccine protection seems to substantially diminish over time / virus evolution. Israel is boosting with third shot. UK August data shows same rate of infection vax/unvax for over 40s, and only half reduction in infection rate for under 40s. (Yeah, I know, severe infection protection is much better, so far). Pfizer CEO is on-record concerned about vaccine escape and ready to prepare new jabs on a 3 month notice. Covid is here to stay. What is the long term plan? 'Boost' every 6 months with an ever changing cocktail that has not passed any clinical trials? In perpetuity? This is insanity. I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. Some studies have shown it is much stronger than vaccine protection. I hope they are right, or else the future is grim. Personally I really really hope that vax + mild infection works. WE DO have a population for which natural immunity can be acquired at minimum cost: under 18s. For which the risk of covid death is ~1-2% of the already tiny risk of death from all other causes. Leave the kids alone. What doesn't help: Messaging that so incredibly determined to pretend that natural immunity plays no role and that covid risk for a 10 year old is the same as covid risk for an 80 year old (in fact it is 1/1000).
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  > I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. We get annual boosters for many viruses. If you’re really hell bent on getting covid, your likelihood of severe illness is 10x less with at least one dose of the vaccine, and your immunity will be higher than infection alone. The messaging that natural immunity is the only way out, and that getting the virus is somehow ‘better’ than the vaccine is ludicrous.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    There are no mandatory annual shots. Tired of personalization of the disease. I'm not 'hell bent' to do anything. Covid is endemic, there is no herd immunity. The only question is how to manage the severity of the disease, for all the infection events to occur in the long run. I'm vaccinated and keep an eye on https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-updates https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candida.... Or do I need to tattoo 'Pfizer' on my forehead to be allowed to participate in society?

coryfklein 5y ago

> Letting covid 'rip' through the remaining unvaccinated population Aren't unvaccinated individuals the ones who made this decision? You may disagree with the conclusion of their dubious risk analyses, but if you choose not to get vaccinated then all bets are off. Or is it that the risk that the unvaccinated pose to the vaccinated are so high that they warrant strong arm solutions?

jasonlaramburu 5y ago
The more unvaccinated people there are, the more cases of severe covid there will be. This puts tremendous strain on the hospital system, and if they’re uninsured it means the taxpayers are covering the cost of their treatment. Rampant spread also promotes the emergence of new variants.It’s not only a personal decision— declining the shot negatively impacts your community, workplace and the country as a whole.
- CryptoPunk 5y ago
  We have never used this justification to institute invasive laws to prohibit habits that lead to obesity, or to prohibit drug-use or alcohol consumption for that matter. And such laws would always come from the social conservative right, if they were ever instituted, not the people advocating vaccine mandates. Now socialization of medical expenses is being used to rationalize institutionalized discrimination against the unvaccinated, because it aligns with a particular political tribe's agenda. A tribe that also advocates the socialization of medical expenses.
  - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
    > We have never used this justification to institute invasive laws to prohibit habits that lead to obesity, or to prohibit drug-use or alcohol consumption for that matter. Correct, these things are not contagious to others.
    - disneygibson 5y ago
      There is significant research indicating that these things are socially contagious.

zardo 5y ago

> Letting covid 'rip' through the remaining unvaccinated population will bring tens or hundreds of thousands of additional, unnecessary deaths, even with wide availability of current therapeutics. The more cases, the more the variants. Getting everyone infected might bring about herd immunity to one strain, and create a dozen more.