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When the book was first authored 6 or 7 states had nuclear weapons, but only 2 had the means to deliver those weapons intercontinentally. Today 8 or 9 states ar

When the book was first authored 6 or 7 states had nuclear weapons, but only 2 had the means to deliver those weapons intercontinentally. Today 8 or 9 states are nuclear capable and most have intercontinental delivery systems. Setting aside intentional use, the probability of accidental or forced launch has increased significantly. The difference between an industrial accident & military accidents are only semantic after the fact; and some of these states have accident rates that are deeply troubling. One might reasonably expect Japan, S. Korea, Saudi Arabia and others to join the nuclear club soon, particularly as/if the US conventional deterrent fades & its nuclear umbrella deterrent grows more uncertain.

mLuby 5y ago
> One might reasonably expect Japan… to join the nuclear club soon That would be surprising, but there's more history in favor of it than I'd expected: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program#Postwar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...
tester756 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov >Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm, and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol, is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war. An investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned. >Had Petrov reported incoming American missiles, his superiors might have launched an assault against the United States, precipitating a corresponding nuclear response from the United States. Petrov declared the system's indication a false alarm. Later, it was apparent that he was right: no missiles were approaching and the computer detection system was malfunctioning. It was subsequently determined that the false alarm had been created by a rare alignment of sunlight on high-altitude clouds above North Dakota and the Molniya orbits of the satellites, an error later corrected by cross-referencing a geostationary satellite. >Petrov later indicated that the influences on his decision included that he had been told a US strike would be all-out, so five missiles seemed an illogical start; that the launch detection system was new and, in his view, not yet wholly trustworthy; that the message passed through 30 layers of verification too quickly; and that ground radar failed to pick up corroborative evidence, even after minutes of delay. However, in a 2013 interview, Petrov said at the time he was never sure that the alarm was erroneous. He felt that his civilian training helped him make the right decision. He said that his colleagues were all professional soldiers with purely military training and, following instructions, would have reported a missile launch if they had been on his shift. >But nuclear security expert Bruce G. Blair has said that at that time, the U.S.–Soviet relationship had deteriorated to the point where "the Soviet Union as a system—not just the Kremlin, not just Andropov, not just the KGB—but as a system, was geared to expect an attack and to retaliate very quickly to it. It was on hair-trigger alert. It was very nervous and prone to mistakes and accidents. The false alarm that happened on Petrov's watch could not have come at a more dangerous, intense phase in US–Soviet relations."[23] At that time, according to Oleg Kalugin, a former KGB chief of foreign counterintelligence, "The danger was in the Soviet leadership thinking, 'The Americans may attack, so we better attack first.'"
PeterisP 5y ago
Still, only 2 states have the power to unleash universal destruction - all the others have delivery systems but they don't have much quantity, so their weapons are essentially a deterrent force that can be used to either retaliate for a nuclear attack (thus, hopefully, preventing one) or used in an ultimatum to prevent invasion of their homeland or capitulation, but that's it, they can do extreme harm to the target, killing millions of civilians, but they can't eliminate an opponent state the way USA or Russia can.

mLuby 5y ago

> One might reasonably expect Japan… to join the nuclear club soon That would be surprising, but there's more history in favor of it than I'd expected: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program#Postwar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...

tester756 5y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov >Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm, and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol, is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war. An investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned. >Had Petrov reported incoming American missiles, his superiors might have launched an assault against the United States, precipitating a corresponding nuclear response from the United States. Petrov declared the system's indication a false alarm. Later, it was apparent that he was right: no missiles were approaching and the computer detection system was malfunctioning. It was subsequently determined that the false alarm had been created by a rare alignment of sunlight on high-altitude clouds above North Dakota and the Molniya orbits of the satellites, an error later corrected by cross-referencing a geostationary satellite. >Petrov later indicated that the influences on his decision included that he had been told a US strike would be all-out, so five missiles seemed an illogical start; that the launch detection system was new and, in his view, not yet wholly trustworthy; that the message passed through 30 layers of verification too quickly; and that ground radar failed to pick up corroborative evidence, even after minutes of delay. However, in a 2013 interview, Petrov said at the time he was never sure that the alarm was erroneous. He felt that his civilian training helped him make the right decision. He said that his colleagues were all professional soldiers with purely military training and, following instructions, would have reported a missile launch if they had been on his shift. >But nuclear security expert Bruce G. Blair has said that at that time, the U.S.–Soviet relationship had deteriorated to the point where "the Soviet Union as a system—not just the Kremlin, not just Andropov, not just the KGB—but as a system, was geared to expect an attack and to retaliate very quickly to it. It was on hair-trigger alert. It was very nervous and prone to mistakes and accidents. The false alarm that happened on Petrov's watch could not have come at a more dangerous, intense phase in US–Soviet relations."[23] At that time, according to Oleg Kalugin, a former KGB chief of foreign counterintelligence, "The danger was in the Soviet leadership thinking, 'The Americans may attack, so we better attack first.'"

PeterisP 5y ago

Still, only 2 states have the power to unleash universal destruction - all the others have delivery systems but they don't have much quantity, so their weapons are essentially a deterrent force that can be used to either retaliate for a nuclear attack (thus, hopefully, preventing one) or used in an ultimatum to prevent invasion of their homeland or capitulation, but that's it, they can do extreme harm to the target, killing millions of civilians, but they can't eliminate an opponent state the way USA or Russia can.