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Just ask openAI codex or github copilot. It’ll all be natural language interfaces based on neural networks like that. I wish things were otherwise but I can’t

Just ask openAI codex or github copilot. It’ll all be natural language interfaces based on neural networks like that. I wish things were otherwise but I can’t in good faith recommend someone learn “to code” or learn any programming language anymore.

methusala8 5y ago
Are you super pessimistic about the future of this profession?
- qualudeheart 5y ago
  Yeah. It’ll probably morph into something between a trade and a secretary tier position, where you receive orders from a business analyst, expand on then and feed them into a language model which does the actual programming. Right after that the business analyst does that too and finally their job is also automated. I expect this to destroy the “gig economy” of freelancers too, but only after existing programmers are forced out of normal employment and into “freelancing” with drastically reduced negotation power and workplace protections. All the technical depth and fun is going to be removed unless you’re one of the very few most elite human programmers. It breaks my heart seeing this happen but I can’t do anything about it. My advice to everyone is to grift their way into a startup, get as much equity as you can, sell it and retire early. With UBI coming in 10 or 20 years it shouldn’t be too hard.
  - qualudeheart 5y ago
    Added context: this is a very pessimistic projection, and when it comes true will depend how long the trend in neural network scaling continues. Most leading ML researchers expect it to continue for a few more orders of magnitude of model size, which I think is enough for my prediction to come true.
  - gverrilla 5y ago
    I'm a business guy, but I have also coded a few mvp's including a deep and complicated algorithm in Python. In my social and professional surrounding I'm considered a tech expert, but I'm very well aware I'm not even near that, and consider myself an amateur - particularly here on HN. What you are describing seems like a dream to me, a good one, but it's obvious you think otherwise. Mind you telling me why? In my experience I have never worked with passionate programmers, they all see it as a job to get done and if you want intelligence and depth that's on you. I don't have such a vast experience hiring or working with professional programmers, but I have some and it has been consistent in what I'm telling you. Most of them were assembly-line style programmers, specializing in one or two things (meaning they learn how to replicate the work needed). And I would have a really hard time if I needed elite programmers for these tasks, and also no money to pay for it. The way I see it, making all the programming easy should be a net benefit for (almost) everybody, particularly in a stage when it gets so complicated to do simple stuff like making a website. To be honest, I've been around a lot and I have never really met an elite programmer irl. I have met a lot of dedicated and smart people, yes, and also good hackers, but not really passionate experts. I also live in Brazil, if it matters.
    - matheusmoreira 5y ago
      > Mind you telling me why? The computer is a blank slate. Innocent. When it starts, there is nothing stored in its vast arrays of memory. No data, no code, nothing. Bit by bit programmers carved meaning into that empty universe. This number is now a character. An array of these numbers is now text. An ordered list of these texts is now a program. Complexity increasing. We could do more and more with less and less. That new virtual world was revealing itself to us. We were the gods of this virtual world. With mere words we could conjure up incredible architectures out of nothing. We gave meaning to ordinary numbers. We invented structures. We developed systems. We erected infrastructure. Even language itself came from us. Limited only by our minds. The computer's capabilities shaped by our own understanding. Anything we thought possible, happened. Only the courage to try was necessary. And now the computer is becoming so advanced and complex that our minds can no longer fully understand it. We can no longer fully control it. One day we will no longer be the gods we once were. The computer will understand things and reprogram itself. A truly poignant end for us. Reduced to reliving our past glories in the comfort of old hardware and software. > I also live in Brazil, if it matters. It matters. I'm also brazilian and most other programmers I've met are exactly as you described. I actually quit professional programming because of that.

methusala8 5y ago

Are you super pessimistic about the future of this profession?

qualudeheart 5y ago
Yeah. It’ll probably morph into something between a trade and a secretary tier position, where you receive orders from a business analyst, expand on then and feed them into a language model which does the actual programming. Right after that the business analyst does that too and finally their job is also automated. I expect this to destroy the “gig economy” of freelancers too, but only after existing programmers are forced out of normal employment and into “freelancing” with drastically reduced negotation power and workplace protections. All the technical depth and fun is going to be removed unless you’re one of the very few most elite human programmers. It breaks my heart seeing this happen but I can’t do anything about it. My advice to everyone is to grift their way into a startup, get as much equity as you can, sell it and retire early. With UBI coming in 10 or 20 years it shouldn’t be too hard.
- qualudeheart 5y ago
  Added context: this is a very pessimistic projection, and when it comes true will depend how long the trend in neural network scaling continues. Most leading ML researchers expect it to continue for a few more orders of magnitude of model size, which I think is enough for my prediction to come true.
- gverrilla 5y ago
  I'm a business guy, but I have also coded a few mvp's including a deep and complicated algorithm in Python. In my social and professional surrounding I'm considered a tech expert, but I'm very well aware I'm not even near that, and consider myself an amateur - particularly here on HN. What you are describing seems like a dream to me, a good one, but it's obvious you think otherwise. Mind you telling me why? In my experience I have never worked with passionate programmers, they all see it as a job to get done and if you want intelligence and depth that's on you. I don't have such a vast experience hiring or working with professional programmers, but I have some and it has been consistent in what I'm telling you. Most of them were assembly-line style programmers, specializing in one or two things (meaning they learn how to replicate the work needed). And I would have a really hard time if I needed elite programmers for these tasks, and also no money to pay for it. The way I see it, making all the programming easy should be a net benefit for (almost) everybody, particularly in a stage when it gets so complicated to do simple stuff like making a website. To be honest, I've been around a lot and I have never really met an elite programmer irl. I have met a lot of dedicated and smart people, yes, and also good hackers, but not really passionate experts. I also live in Brazil, if it matters.
  - matheusmoreira 5y ago
    > Mind you telling me why? The computer is a blank slate. Innocent. When it starts, there is nothing stored in its vast arrays of memory. No data, no code, nothing. Bit by bit programmers carved meaning into that empty universe. This number is now a character. An array of these numbers is now text. An ordered list of these texts is now a program. Complexity increasing. We could do more and more with less and less. That new virtual world was revealing itself to us. We were the gods of this virtual world. With mere words we could conjure up incredible architectures out of nothing. We gave meaning to ordinary numbers. We invented structures. We developed systems. We erected infrastructure. Even language itself came from us. Limited only by our minds. The computer's capabilities shaped by our own understanding. Anything we thought possible, happened. Only the courage to try was necessary. And now the computer is becoming so advanced and complex that our minds can no longer fully understand it. We can no longer fully control it. One day we will no longer be the gods we once were. The computer will understand things and reprogram itself. A truly poignant end for us. Reduced to reliving our past glories in the comfort of old hardware and software. > I also live in Brazil, if it matters. It matters. I'm also brazilian and most other programmers I've met are exactly as you described. I actually quit professional programming because of that.