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> Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is the

> Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happen. America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. > With this, lets again assume that China eventually successfully takes Taiwan. What next? They would have taken over an island with a large number of people who resents their rule. There will be a persistent resistance group as long as Beijing continues her ways and Beijing is aware of this and is trying to shape the education of the younger generations so that the resentment does not cross generations. Also, brainwashing via complete control of the media, disappearing dissidents... They're doing it to the Falun Gong and the Muslims and others and they'll have no problem doing it to more. > Even if all these were to take place and all hope seems to be lost. There is a glimmer of hope. A totalitarian state has one major fault. There is no effective feedback mechanism and to assume that this one man can make the right call, the right decision all the time is a stretch. At some point, be it internal infighting, or a policy misstep creating intense misery amongst the people, there will be discontent and if the history of China is any indication, the discontent can trigger uprisings and eventually a change of regime. Also possible for there to be enough bureaucratic momentum that those within it have enough skin in the game to want to install a new head. But once China's growth starts to slow down I wouldn't be surprised at the CCP losing the Mandate of Heaven and the Ouroboros eating its tail again.

klodolph 5y ago
> America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. That is not even close to what happened. Korea was divided at the end of WWII into Soviet and US occupation zones after the Japanese surrender. Prior to that, it had been occupied by Japan.
JackeJR 5y ago
I agree that once the growth slows China will start to see cracks in its society. This, I submit, is the reason why Beijing is doubling down on the nationalist path. Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. The social compact I believe that exists in China is that the people put up with the curbs either out of ignorance of the lacks of curbs or because of the promise of a better life which comes along with increased job wages as long as they toe the party line. The moment the bargain is not held up for the increased wages, the compact starts to get eroded. Turmoil in China if it happens will have a widespread and largely unknown consequences. Unknown because too many pieces are intricately linked to the stable functioning of China. For one, I hope to be able to witness this one day.
- justicezyx 5y ago
  > Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. Well, no, this is what US is doing, paint China as the source of all evil. Yourself is the product of that ploy. Think about Afghanistan, after so many years of wasted money life and time, one still think war is the answer. How effective the propaganda has been...

klodolph 5y ago

> America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. That is not even close to what happened. Korea was divided at the end of WWII into Soviet and US occupation zones after the Japanese surrender. Prior to that, it had been occupied by Japan.

JackeJR 5y ago

I agree that once the growth slows China will start to see cracks in its society. This, I submit, is the reason why Beijing is doubling down on the nationalist path. Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. The social compact I believe that exists in China is that the people put up with the curbs either out of ignorance of the lacks of curbs or because of the promise of a better life which comes along with increased job wages as long as they toe the party line. The moment the bargain is not held up for the increased wages, the compact starts to get eroded. Turmoil in China if it happens will have a widespread and largely unknown consequences. Unknown because too many pieces are intricately linked to the stable functioning of China. For one, I hope to be able to witness this one day.

justicezyx 5y ago
> Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. Well, no, this is what US is doing, paint China as the source of all evil. Yourself is the product of that ploy. Think about Afghanistan, after so many years of wasted money life and time, one still think war is the answer. How effective the propaganda has been...