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It's hard to forecast this. Trump supporters are effectively a cult, and every time something came along that made me think "ok, this time he's done it" (e.g.,

It's hard to forecast this. Trump supporters are effectively a cult, and every time something came along that made me think "ok, this time he's done it" (e.g., shooting someone on 5th Ave, which he was correct in his assessment), I've been proven wrong. We are still in uncharted waters.

rayiner 5y ago
Nope. They represent the economically moderate, culturally conservative segment of the population. (Fun fact: if you put Germany’s CDU’s positions into NYT’s political party poll, you end up in Trump’s Patriot Party: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/republicans-democrats-parties.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/repub....
- Tomte 5y ago
  What's fascinating is that the CDU has long been criticised for having moved left, and that "real conservatives" have no political home anymore. That's part of AfD's success.
  - rayiner 5y ago
    You wouldn’t find posters like this even at a Trump rally: https://www.smh.com.au/world/farright-white-noise-of-alternative-for-germany-changes-election-landscape-20170922-gymmkm.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/farright-white-noise-of-alterna... Compared to Europe, Trump’s “immigrants are bringing crime” stuff is on the gamer end of the right wing.
- tptacek 5y ago
  I don't think that's true at all. I just played out the quiz over CDU positions (replacing "America" with "Germany", and correcting for places where German law is already to the "left" of American law). I came up with: Marijuana: Somewhat pro-legalization Same-sex marriage: No Immigration difficulty: Much harder Reduce regulations: Somewhat disagree Reduce police forces: Somewhat disagree Universal health care: Strong agree Science unimportant: Strong disagree Raise minimum wage: Somewhat agree Better Germany than elsewhere: Strong agree Gun control: Stricter Whites systematically advantaged: Somewhat disagree. Abortion: Illegal in all cases. Economy is unfair: Somewhat agree Racial minorities can advance: Neutral Discrimination against whites > blacks: Somewhat disagree Raise taxes on high earners: Yes Path to citizenship: No Wealthy people spur innovation: Somewhat agree Climate change: Somewhat important Reduce income differences: Somewhat agree I think I can cite coverage for each of these positions, and, in come cases, actual votes. Someone reading this actually is a German who pays attention to German politics and can correct me if need be. Remember: these questions are all relative to the American status quo. I wound up "nearest" the "New Labor Party", but in the top-left quadrant (where there are no party clusters in the American VOTERS data set). As one would expect, as a German CDU member, I'd be much more socially conservative than the "liberal" parties NYT proposes --- but notably distant from the Patriot party! --- and much more economically liberal than the "conservative" NYT parties. Mainstream German politics are definitely outside of the "liberal" consensus of the US; you're at least half right about that. But there are a lot of positions of the Trump-era Republican party that are way out of the mainstream of the conservative German consensus.
  - rayiner 5y ago
    I agree with most of these. The NYT calculator is very sensitive to the marijuana legalization and science questions. According to this CDU still opposes, though they proposed liberalization as part of compromise with greens: https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuana-legalization-bill/ https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuan... On the science question, I think CDU would be a strong disagree. Germans are obviously science driven, but they don’t try to “sciencify” fundamental values questions like Americans. The premise of Christian democracy is religion as a source of truth and values in politics.
    - tptacek 5y ago
      The Trump Republican party is trying to cure COVID19 with ivermectin and zinc. The CDU is laughing (ruefully) at them. I stand by my "science" answer. The CDU is not ideologically compatible with MAGA Republicanism. I think you're keying in on the immigration and abortion stuff, which is a fair point, but really they're just not in the vector space of US politics, which is sort of the point that NYT piece is making.
      - rayiner 5y ago
        I see your point, but that’s not how I read that question. I read that question to ask whether the major policy debates of our time can be reduced to disputes over science and facts, which is how liberal Americans tend to view them, or instead disputes over values and principles, which is how conservative Americans tend to view them. I agree that the CDU is distinct from MAGA Republicanism, insofar as they aren’t driven by a gratuitous “stick it to the libs” obstinance. At the same time, I think German conservatives are much closer to American conservatives than to American liberals in accepting values and religion driving policy, rather than science. I cite abortion as the example, not because the CDU opposed abortion, but because of how they think about the issue. American liberals are pushing back against heartbeat abortion bans by arguing, for example, that an embryo doesn’t have a “heart” at 6 weeks, but instead it’s just developing cardiac cells. CDU folks don’t talk about abortion in scientific terms. Consistent with the NYT questionnaire, the issue of abortion isn’t a scientific one to them, it’s an issue of morality and religion. And they’re comfortable putting morality and religion into politics in a way that’s quite at odds with how American liberals view things.

rayiner 5y ago

Nope. They represent the economically moderate, culturally conservative segment of the population. (Fun fact: if you put Germany’s CDU’s positions into NYT’s political party poll, you end up in Trump’s Patriot Party: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/republicans-democrats-parties.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/repub....

Tomte 5y ago
What's fascinating is that the CDU has long been criticised for having moved left, and that "real conservatives" have no political home anymore. That's part of AfD's success.
- rayiner 5y ago
  You wouldn’t find posters like this even at a Trump rally: https://www.smh.com.au/world/farright-white-noise-of-alternative-for-germany-changes-election-landscape-20170922-gymmkm.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/farright-white-noise-of-alterna... Compared to Europe, Trump’s “immigrants are bringing crime” stuff is on the gamer end of the right wing.
tptacek 5y ago
I don't think that's true at all. I just played out the quiz over CDU positions (replacing "America" with "Germany", and correcting for places where German law is already to the "left" of American law). I came up with: Marijuana: Somewhat pro-legalization Same-sex marriage: No Immigration difficulty: Much harder Reduce regulations: Somewhat disagree Reduce police forces: Somewhat disagree Universal health care: Strong agree Science unimportant: Strong disagree Raise minimum wage: Somewhat agree Better Germany than elsewhere: Strong agree Gun control: Stricter Whites systematically advantaged: Somewhat disagree. Abortion: Illegal in all cases. Economy is unfair: Somewhat agree Racial minorities can advance: Neutral Discrimination against whites > blacks: Somewhat disagree Raise taxes on high earners: Yes Path to citizenship: No Wealthy people spur innovation: Somewhat agree Climate change: Somewhat important Reduce income differences: Somewhat agree I think I can cite coverage for each of these positions, and, in come cases, actual votes. Someone reading this actually is a German who pays attention to German politics and can correct me if need be. Remember: these questions are all relative to the American status quo. I wound up "nearest" the "New Labor Party", but in the top-left quadrant (where there are no party clusters in the American VOTERS data set). As one would expect, as a German CDU member, I'd be much more socially conservative than the "liberal" parties NYT proposes --- but notably distant from the Patriot party! --- and much more economically liberal than the "conservative" NYT parties. Mainstream German politics are definitely outside of the "liberal" consensus of the US; you're at least half right about that. But there are a lot of positions of the Trump-era Republican party that are way out of the mainstream of the conservative German consensus.
- rayiner 5y ago
  I agree with most of these. The NYT calculator is very sensitive to the marijuana legalization and science questions. According to this CDU still opposes, though they proposed liberalization as part of compromise with greens: https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuana-legalization-bill/ https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuan... On the science question, I think CDU would be a strong disagree. Germans are obviously science driven, but they don’t try to “sciencify” fundamental values questions like Americans. The premise of Christian democracy is religion as a source of truth and values in politics.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    The Trump Republican party is trying to cure COVID19 with ivermectin and zinc. The CDU is laughing (ruefully) at them. I stand by my "science" answer. The CDU is not ideologically compatible with MAGA Republicanism. I think you're keying in on the immigration and abortion stuff, which is a fair point, but really they're just not in the vector space of US politics, which is sort of the point that NYT piece is making.
    - rayiner 5y ago
      I see your point, but that’s not how I read that question. I read that question to ask whether the major policy debates of our time can be reduced to disputes over science and facts, which is how liberal Americans tend to view them, or instead disputes over values and principles, which is how conservative Americans tend to view them. I agree that the CDU is distinct from MAGA Republicanism, insofar as they aren’t driven by a gratuitous “stick it to the libs” obstinance. At the same time, I think German conservatives are much closer to American conservatives than to American liberals in accepting values and religion driving policy, rather than science. I cite abortion as the example, not because the CDU opposed abortion, but because of how they think about the issue. American liberals are pushing back against heartbeat abortion bans by arguing, for example, that an embryo doesn’t have a “heart” at 6 weeks, but instead it’s just developing cardiac cells. CDU folks don’t talk about abortion in scientific terms. Consistent with the NYT questionnaire, the issue of abortion isn’t a scientific one to them, it’s an issue of morality and religion. And they’re comfortable putting morality and religion into politics in a way that’s quite at odds with how American liberals view things.