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I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior int

by xnyan 5y ago

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior intelligence officer walks into the briefing room and says “The United States has placed their nuclear missiles in Taiwan, but don’t worry - that’s exactly the same as Russia having missiles, or India having done some nuclear tests and maybe having a shitty delivery system that’s 1/100 as advanced as the US. No cause for concern. Nothing has changed.” It’s a wholly unrealistic analysis that does not even pass a cursory sniff test. The United States of America putting their nuclear warheads in Taipei, a region they consider to be stolen from them with the support of western power, would be taken as a unique and massive escalation of hostilities because it would be, they would be stupid not to consider it as such.

deleted 5y ago
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warning26 5y ago
I agree that Taiwan wouldn't want to accept US nukes for the reason you state. However, what if they had domestically developed nukes instead? I feel like that would be a much more tenable position that would largely address your concern, and also grant Taiwan the ability to forestall any invasion indefinitely.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  Taiwan is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, facilities for nuclear programs would be glassed before TW could develop any capabilities. PRC fought with US / USSR while both were nuclear powers and China was not over much less important core interests than TW. Like there's currently 10s and eventually 100s of vunerable mainland coastal nuclear power plants that TW missiles can strike right now. TW has a lot of ability to fuck up PRC if they want to. Scope of TW actions/resistence will determine proportionality of destruction by PRC. Though ultimately there is nothing TW can do to deter PRC who has fought harder opponents with less means and more sacrifice.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  There is zero possibility for Taiwan to domestically develop nukes and the ways to deliver them reliably without the Chinese figuring it out and shutting it down with massive prejudice.
systemvoltage 5y ago
As a counter, I could imagine this to be alarming if hypothetically US is openly interested in invading Mexico who is allied with China. China then decides to place nuclear arsenal near Mexico city to defend it. This would be far less alarming than China initiating placement of nukes in Mexico without any intention from US to invade Mexico. The subtle difference is offense vs. defense. If China openly agrees with the world to never invade Taiwan, US placing nukes in Taiwan would be unacceptable. But that is not the reality here.
- sangnoir 5y ago
  > The subtle difference is offense vs. defense. China got antsy, and vociferously complained about plans for the US to supply South Korea with advanced radar defense system (THAAD)[1], which China contended would extend into Chinese airspace. Radar, which is on paper, purely for defense. Nukes will be 2+ orders of magnitude worse. 1. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korean-missile-defense-system-deployment-and-its-implications https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korea...
stickfigure 5y ago
I don't think anyone is interested in putting US nukes in Taiwan. Presumably US nukes are already in the area on US naval vessels. It doesn't really change the balance of power; the US isn't going to start nuclear war over Taiwan. The more meaningful scenario is what happens when Taiwan gets its own nukes. Either developed domestically or acquired shrinkwrap ("POINT THIS SIDE AT ENEMY"). At that point it's out of US control, and you can imagine the Taiwanese would use them in an existential crisis. Of course China (specifically, the CCP) wouldn't be happy about that. That's not the point.

by xnyan 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

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warning26 5y ago

I agree that Taiwan wouldn't want to accept US nukes for the reason you state. However, what if they had domestically developed nukes instead? I feel like that would be a much more tenable position that would largely address your concern, and also grant Taiwan the ability to forestall any invasion indefinitely.

dirtyid 5y ago
Taiwan is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, facilities for nuclear programs would be glassed before TW could develop any capabilities. PRC fought with US / USSR while both were nuclear powers and China was not over much less important core interests than TW. Like there's currently 10s and eventually 100s of vunerable mainland coastal nuclear power plants that TW missiles can strike right now. TW has a lot of ability to fuck up PRC if they want to. Scope of TW actions/resistence will determine proportionality of destruction by PRC. Though ultimately there is nothing TW can do to deter PRC who has fought harder opponents with less means and more sacrifice.
sudosysgen 5y ago
There is zero possibility for Taiwan to domestically develop nukes and the ways to deliver them reliably without the Chinese figuring it out and shutting it down with massive prejudice.

systemvoltage 5y ago

As a counter, I could imagine this to be alarming if hypothetically US is openly interested in invading Mexico who is allied with China. China then decides to place nuclear arsenal near Mexico city to defend it. This would be far less alarming than China initiating placement of nukes in Mexico without any intention from US to invade Mexico. The subtle difference is offense vs. defense. If China openly agrees with the world to never invade Taiwan, US placing nukes in Taiwan would be unacceptable. But that is not the reality here.

sangnoir 5y ago
> The subtle difference is offense vs. defense. China got antsy, and vociferously complained about plans for the US to supply South Korea with advanced radar defense system (THAAD)[1], which China contended would extend into Chinese airspace. Radar, which is on paper, purely for defense. Nukes will be 2+ orders of magnitude worse. 1. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korean-missile-defense-system-deployment-and-its-implications https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korea...

stickfigure 5y ago

I don't think anyone is interested in putting US nukes in Taiwan. Presumably US nukes are already in the area on US naval vessels. It doesn't really change the balance of power; the US isn't going to start nuclear war over Taiwan. The more meaningful scenario is what happens when Taiwan gets its own nukes. Either developed domestically or acquired shrinkwrap ("POINT THIS SIDE AT ENEMY"). At that point it's out of US control, and you can imagine the Taiwanese would use them in an existential crisis. Of course China (specifically, the CCP) wouldn't be happy about that. That's not the point.