4 ms·

Tariffs? We tried a trade war, and it had some economic effect, but no lasting political effect. We probably don't want to get involved in another land war in A

Tariffs? We tried a trade war, and it had some economic effect, but no lasting political effect. We probably don't want to get involved in another land war in Asia, if we can avoid it. We could try asking them nicely, but beyond that I feel like it's up to the people of China to decide their own fate.

sremani 5y ago
Hongkong dollar is pegged to USD and US has a special treaty with HK w.r.t Financial transactions. US can walk out of the treaty but there are downsides to it. It will happen sooner or later.
GekkePrutser 5y ago
A land war against China over Hong Kong would be ridiculous. They have the entire country as a base. The western countries would have to fly/sail everything in. Not to mention the legal situation. It's their soil already. It would be an invasion. Against another superpower no less. Really bad idea. And China can hurt the city enough by just turning the water off. It will only hurt the people of Hong Kong more. No, this change won't be driven by the military. It will have to come from within. Probably the most durable way anyway (see how this worked out for Afghanistan). Taiwan would be a totally different thing though. They have been independent for so long and they have no wish to join communist China (which they've never been a part of). And it's much more defensible. I do hope we will stand by them when it comes to it.
- cabalamat 5y ago
  > A land war against China over Hong Kong would be ridiculous. Indeed. It's a complete non-starter. If the West wants to beat China they must be more subtle and crafty than a direct military invasion: the 2nd Cold War will be mainly fought using diplomacy, trade, economics, technology and spying. Not direct military conflict, apart from maybe a few proxy wars.
- asdff 5y ago
  Western countries probably wouldn't land any ground forces but instead form a naval blockade all along the china sea and use their air superiority to deindustrialize the country.
phantomathkg 5y ago
Ask them nicely?! Appeasement never work, did we forgot what we have learnt from WW2? The only way out is to start a cold/hot war until toppling the CCP.
- tikwidd 5y ago
  Why not start with the low hanging fruit? Be an inspiration for Chinese dissidents and topple the Business party (Republican/Democrat).
  - phantomathkg 5y ago
    Remember CCP have no similarly as Republican or Democrat. They will never fight fairly with you. Once you amass enough and they see you as a threat. They will use any methods to take it away from you. See what happened to Jack Ma. [1] 1: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/jack-ma-s-celebrity-friends-will-cost-him-billions-amid-fan-culture-crackdown https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/jack-m...
    - tikwidd 5y ago
      You're describing any hegemonic power structure. But my point was not that Democratic/Republican parties are worse than the CCP (on domestic power at least - they are worse than the CCP on foreign policy, but I digress...). My point was that it is easier for Americans to make change in their own country. So why not start there? That's something Americans (and people from US-aligned countries, to some extent) can actually do something about. The CCP is much harder problem that requires international solidarity to overcome. We need to set a positive example for dissidents in China, beating the war drums will not help them.

sremani 5y ago

Hongkong dollar is pegged to USD and US has a special treaty with HK w.r.t Financial transactions. US can walk out of the treaty but there are downsides to it. It will happen sooner or later.

GekkePrutser 5y ago

A land war against China over Hong Kong would be ridiculous. They have the entire country as a base. The western countries would have to fly/sail everything in. Not to mention the legal situation. It's their soil already. It would be an invasion. Against another superpower no less. Really bad idea. And China can hurt the city enough by just turning the water off. It will only hurt the people of Hong Kong more. No, this change won't be driven by the military. It will have to come from within. Probably the most durable way anyway (see how this worked out for Afghanistan). Taiwan would be a totally different thing though. They have been independent for so long and they have no wish to join communist China (which they've never been a part of). And it's much more defensible. I do hope we will stand by them when it comes to it.

cabalamat 5y ago
> A land war against China over Hong Kong would be ridiculous. Indeed. It's a complete non-starter. If the West wants to beat China they must be more subtle and crafty than a direct military invasion: the 2nd Cold War will be mainly fought using diplomacy, trade, economics, technology and spying. Not direct military conflict, apart from maybe a few proxy wars.
asdff 5y ago
Western countries probably wouldn't land any ground forces but instead form a naval blockade all along the china sea and use their air superiority to deindustrialize the country.

phantomathkg 5y ago

Ask them nicely?! Appeasement never work, did we forgot what we have learnt from WW2? The only way out is to start a cold/hot war until toppling the CCP.

tikwidd 5y ago
Why not start with the low hanging fruit? Be an inspiration for Chinese dissidents and topple the Business party (Republican/Democrat).
- phantomathkg 5y ago
  Remember CCP have no similarly as Republican or Democrat. They will never fight fairly with you. Once you amass enough and they see you as a threat. They will use any methods to take it away from you. See what happened to Jack Ma. [1] 1: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/jack-ma-s-celebrity-friends-will-cost-him-billions-amid-fan-culture-crackdown https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/jack-m...
  - tikwidd 5y ago
    You're describing any hegemonic power structure. But my point was not that Democratic/Republican parties are worse than the CCP (on domestic power at least - they are worse than the CCP on foreign policy, but I digress...). My point was that it is easier for Americans to make change in their own country. So why not start there? That's something Americans (and people from US-aligned countries, to some extent) can actually do something about. The CCP is much harder problem that requires international solidarity to overcome. We need to set a positive example for dissidents in China, beating the war drums will not help them.