4 ms·

The 6502 will be 50 in 2025, so unless they stop making them between now and then we will have at least one example of a processor lasting that long commerciall

by jecel 5y ago

The 6502 will be 50 in 2025, so unless they stop making them between now and then we will have at least one example of a processor lasting that long commercially. If not, then the Z80 will be 50 in the following year.

johnwalkr 5y ago
But those are running lightweight embedded stuff with no or minimal OS. A modern intel x86 CPU is never used that way and a) is broadly compatible with other x86 cpus and b) is used in products that rely on a million software dependencies and a supported OS, along with all of the updates along the way to keep it working online which is a standard requirement these days. So unless the system is totally offline, all the mentioned stuff, plus the other spare parts are also supported for 50 years, there’s not much of a market there. But by all means the embedded stuff, motor controllers, instruments and so on should have simple interfaces and either last 50 years or be easily replaced 50 years in the future. This is largely true for industrial stuff. In industrial plants you rarely even have a serial connection to instruments. Instead you will have something like a 4-20mA analogue signal.
- filereaper 5y ago
  Maybe the OS and everything we run today will be considered "lightweight" 50 years from now...
  - johnwalkr 5y ago
    Maybe, but in that case it will be lightweight on current hardware, not on 50 year old hardware. I wouldn't be surprised if a midrange microcontroller used for a one-off application, in 50 years has the equivalent of docker (x2, one for the development environment and one for the microcontroller). That would hopefully work for another 50 years. On the other hand, look at any small microcontroller vs a complex CPU today. In laymen's terms, arduino vs raspberry pi. For controlling some devices, a small microcontroller is faster booting, faster to react, has fewer unnecessary states, is deterministic, testable, more reliable, uses less power. That will probably never change and in 50 years 8 bit micros will still be used for a lot of applications. Even after 50 years of development you probably don't want the brake controller in your self-driving car to run something in python 2.7.19 in docker in windows 39. I also wouldn't be surprised (and hope) it goes the other way and in 50 years development using FPGAs is as easy banging stuff out in an IDE and making ASICs is as easy compiling and dollars per chip in small quantities.
- bluGill 5y ago
  > But those are running lightweight embedded stuff with no or minimal OS. A modern intel x86 CPU is never used that way and a) is broadly compatible with other x86 cpus and b) is used in products that rely on a million software dependencies and a supported OS, along with all of the updates along the way to keep it working online which is a standard requirement these days Modern x86 processors are used in embedded. While there are security concerns if connected to the internet, not all are. These processors don't drive the low level controls, but they do drive the UI - customers want touch screens and other modern UI controls for their equipment. They absolutely do buy equipment expecting it to last for more than 50 years, my company makes a lot of money supplying parts for machines we made in the 1950s - modern machines make us more money, but those old ones are still doing the job for customers who couldn't afford to buy new.
  - johnwalkr 5y ago
    "Never" was too strong a word but I stand by the market being small. I know modern x86 CPUs are used in embedded and I even have a robot arm that uses a 486 with bare metal software for motor control. My comment is a reply to the parent but also to the article which I could have clarified. In retrospect I am probably replying to the wrong comment to give my opinion. I think a few CPU part numbers per generation guaranteed to be available for decades is a good idea (and I think it's true already). I also think custom SOCs is a good idea. I just don't think there is feasibility for both custom and long life in the same part. Then, to reply to you, are you using x86 CPUs in a part of a system that will actually last 50 years? I used to work in automation and perhaps I have a bias based on what I saw in my projects. I was generally paid to automate old machines (oldest was about 60 years old) or upgrade the automation of machines. Sometimes we would keep ancient PLCs running for decades, and sometimes replace them (with a newer PLC that can certainly run for decades). For worn-out mechanical parts we would usually find an old drawing, or reverse engineer an old part and make a new identical one. But for HMIs, dataloggers and webservers, everyone seemed to be trending towards using industrial products built around x86. These would always be secondary systems and interface to the PLC, but not actually be critical components (well, maybe 1 out of several HMIs is required). But, these tended to be replaced every 5-15 years if they stopped working or a new feature was required, and not maintained with spare parts. It doesn't seem that the manufacturers of these things keep them available for a long time either. Out of interest, I just looked up the current product line of Beijers HMI panels (I used to mainly use them in my projects), and they seem to be built around Atom, Celeron and iMX6 (great CPU btw) CPUs. Having seen inside the older products, I doubt these have standardized sockets to drop in a new CPU 30 years from now. In fact, the models I used to buy 15 years ago are no longer available and the only option is to buy a newer model and translate the old UI screens to the UI model (either manually or automatically). They do still work with ancient PLCs though. My thesis is for these, or one of the x86-based "soft PLCs", or in general, for the most part it makes sense to use available commodity parts and keep the product line inexpensive and compatible at the software level rather than select a CPU with 50 year availability. And especially not ask for a custom SoC and then pay for 50 year availability. And not use an off the shelf OS and libraries and hope they work for 50 years. Much better to standardize some interfaces and maintain only those for 50 years. As a final comment, there are absolutely cases with huge qualification costs or human safety requirements where it makes sense to pay big money to keep using old, proven parts even if they are obsolete, like aerospace or nuclear.

by jecel 5y ago

johnwalkr 5y ago

But those are running lightweight embedded stuff with no or minimal OS. A modern intel x86 CPU is never used that way and a) is broadly compatible with other x86 cpus and b) is used in products that rely on a million software dependencies and a supported OS, along with all of the updates along the way to keep it working online which is a standard requirement these days. So unless the system is totally offline, all the mentioned stuff, plus the other spare parts are also supported for 50 years, there’s not much of a market there. But by all means the embedded stuff, motor controllers, instruments and so on should have simple interfaces and either last 50 years or be easily replaced 50 years in the future. This is largely true for industrial stuff. In industrial plants you rarely even have a serial connection to instruments. Instead you will have something like a 4-20mA analogue signal.

filereaper 5y ago
Maybe the OS and everything we run today will be considered "lightweight" 50 years from now...
- johnwalkr 5y ago
  Maybe, but in that case it will be lightweight on current hardware, not on 50 year old hardware. I wouldn't be surprised if a midrange microcontroller used for a one-off application, in 50 years has the equivalent of docker (x2, one for the development environment and one for the microcontroller). That would hopefully work for another 50 years. On the other hand, look at any small microcontroller vs a complex CPU today. In laymen's terms, arduino vs raspberry pi. For controlling some devices, a small microcontroller is faster booting, faster to react, has fewer unnecessary states, is deterministic, testable, more reliable, uses less power. That will probably never change and in 50 years 8 bit micros will still be used for a lot of applications. Even after 50 years of development you probably don't want the brake controller in your self-driving car to run something in python 2.7.19 in docker in windows 39. I also wouldn't be surprised (and hope) it goes the other way and in 50 years development using FPGAs is as easy banging stuff out in an IDE and making ASICs is as easy compiling and dollars per chip in small quantities.
bluGill 5y ago
> But those are running lightweight embedded stuff with no or minimal OS. A modern intel x86 CPU is never used that way and a) is broadly compatible with other x86 cpus and b) is used in products that rely on a million software dependencies and a supported OS, along with all of the updates along the way to keep it working online which is a standard requirement these days Modern x86 processors are used in embedded. While there are security concerns if connected to the internet, not all are. These processors don't drive the low level controls, but they do drive the UI - customers want touch screens and other modern UI controls for their equipment. They absolutely do buy equipment expecting it to last for more than 50 years, my company makes a lot of money supplying parts for machines we made in the 1950s - modern machines make us more money, but those old ones are still doing the job for customers who couldn't afford to buy new.
- johnwalkr 5y ago
  "Never" was too strong a word but I stand by the market being small. I know modern x86 CPUs are used in embedded and I even have a robot arm that uses a 486 with bare metal software for motor control. My comment is a reply to the parent but also to the article which I could have clarified. In retrospect I am probably replying to the wrong comment to give my opinion. I think a few CPU part numbers per generation guaranteed to be available for decades is a good idea (and I think it's true already). I also think custom SOCs is a good idea. I just don't think there is feasibility for both custom and long life in the same part. Then, to reply to you, are you using x86 CPUs in a part of a system that will actually last 50 years? I used to work in automation and perhaps I have a bias based on what I saw in my projects. I was generally paid to automate old machines (oldest was about 60 years old) or upgrade the automation of machines. Sometimes we would keep ancient PLCs running for decades, and sometimes replace them (with a newer PLC that can certainly run for decades). For worn-out mechanical parts we would usually find an old drawing, or reverse engineer an old part and make a new identical one. But for HMIs, dataloggers and webservers, everyone seemed to be trending towards using industrial products built around x86. These would always be secondary systems and interface to the PLC, but not actually be critical components (well, maybe 1 out of several HMIs is required). But, these tended to be replaced every 5-15 years if they stopped working or a new feature was required, and not maintained with spare parts. It doesn't seem that the manufacturers of these things keep them available for a long time either. Out of interest, I just looked up the current product line of Beijers HMI panels (I used to mainly use them in my projects), and they seem to be built around Atom, Celeron and iMX6 (great CPU btw) CPUs. Having seen inside the older products, I doubt these have standardized sockets to drop in a new CPU 30 years from now. In fact, the models I used to buy 15 years ago are no longer available and the only option is to buy a newer model and translate the old UI screens to the UI model (either manually or automatically). They do still work with ancient PLCs though. My thesis is for these, or one of the x86-based "soft PLCs", or in general, for the most part it makes sense to use available commodity parts and keep the product line inexpensive and compatible at the software level rather than select a CPU with 50 year availability. And especially not ask for a custom SoC and then pay for 50 year availability. And not use an off the shelf OS and libraries and hope they work for 50 years. Much better to standardize some interfaces and maintain only those for 50 years. As a final comment, there are absolutely cases with huge qualification costs or human safety requirements where it makes sense to pay big money to keep using old, proven parts even if they are obsolete, like aerospace or nuclear.