4 ms·

I have a pet theory that the major cause for cost/time overruns on large projects is the cost constraint itself. In other words, attempting to do things on too

I have a pet theory that the major cause for cost/time overruns on large projects is the cost constraint itself. In other words, attempting to do things on too small of a budget results in the overall cost increasing, not decreasing. I suspect that there are a few main mechanisms for this: 1. As budget constraints tighten, the number of man-hours spent wrestling with bean counters (and/or waiting around with nothing to do until the bean counter wrestling completes) increases exponentially. 2. "Cheap solutions" often end up being unfit for purpose, and have to be reworked later at great expense. 3. Budget overruns lead to time overruns which lead to more budget overruns, ad infinitum.

TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago
Also, it’s a multi-national government funded program that was never intended to return a profit. So there’s very little incentive to constrain costs.
ncmncm 5y ago
The budget overruns are the whole point of the project. Any sort of apparent science or engineering goal is a smokescreen.
- IntrepidWorm 5y ago
  Citations? Or just idle theorizing?
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    It is the same process we see everywhere that massive cost overruns and unlimited delays manifest. Modern management methods can control cost and schedule where that is an actual goal. Where they don't demonstrates the actual goal. Every penny of cost overrun goes into some pocket. Smart management ensures many, many pocketholders are allied to keep the gravy train running.
    - craftinator 5y ago
      > Modern management methods can control cost and schedule Perhaps the stupidest, most vacuous comment I've read this week.
    - IntrepidWorm 5y ago
      Don't attribute to conspiracy what can be adiquately explained by beurocracy.
      - ncmncm 5y ago
        Millions of large buildings, and tens of thousands of huge ships, dams, and bridges are built on time and on budget. The alternative would be that management cannot be judged on its results. Some bridges, invariably urban, go massively over budget and schedule. Urban tunnels, routinely. Military procurement, routinely. Are people who manage those systematically dumber than the rest? Or do they have different measures of success? What is common to those apparent failures is that they serve as a reliable, legal, long-term conduit from public funds to a multitude of private pockets. F-35 can never be cancelled, no matter what, because it has subcontractors in 48 states. The F-35 is a massive success to its backers: it secured monumental patronage. That it can actually take off and land, too, is a miracle.
        Edman274 5y ago
        An experimental fusion reactor is not a large building, or ship, or dam, or bridge. We've been building large buildings since the pyramids of Giza. We've been building large ships since before the Dreadnought. We've been building large dams since at least the Great Depression. The same goes for bridges. I don't think it's intellectually honest to compare budget and time overruns for fusion reactors to budget and time overruns for skyscrapers. You kind of say it without realizing it - "millions of large buildings", well yeah: if we have a lot of practice doing something - like building millions of large buildings - then wouldn't you expect us to do a better job of being on time and on budget than the handful of research efforts into the holy grail of energy production?
ethbr0 5y ago
Time has its own cost, especially multi-stage construction projects. Being delayed imposes costs on downstream work, which must now be ready but in some kind of holding pattern, which imposes costs on work downstream of that work. So a large part of throwing "Manhattan project" / excess funding (and the potential savings by just funding it that way from the start) is avoiding these delays, to the extent possible. It costs +$200,000 to tackle some challenge in a critical piece? Sometimes it's cheaper just to pay.

TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago

Also, it’s a multi-national government funded program that was never intended to return a profit. So there’s very little incentive to constrain costs.

ncmncm 5y ago

The budget overruns are the whole point of the project. Any sort of apparent science or engineering goal is a smokescreen.

IntrepidWorm 5y ago
Citations? Or just idle theorizing?
- ncmncm 5y ago
  It is the same process we see everywhere that massive cost overruns and unlimited delays manifest. Modern management methods can control cost and schedule where that is an actual goal. Where they don't demonstrates the actual goal. Every penny of cost overrun goes into some pocket. Smart management ensures many, many pocketholders are allied to keep the gravy train running.
  - craftinator 5y ago
    > Modern management methods can control cost and schedule Perhaps the stupidest, most vacuous comment I've read this week.
  - IntrepidWorm 5y ago
    Don't attribute to conspiracy what can be adiquately explained by beurocracy.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      Millions of large buildings, and tens of thousands of huge ships, dams, and bridges are built on time and on budget. The alternative would be that management cannot be judged on its results. Some bridges, invariably urban, go massively over budget and schedule. Urban tunnels, routinely. Military procurement, routinely. Are people who manage those systematically dumber than the rest? Or do they have different measures of success? What is common to those apparent failures is that they serve as a reliable, legal, long-term conduit from public funds to a multitude of private pockets. F-35 can never be cancelled, no matter what, because it has subcontractors in 48 states. The F-35 is a massive success to its backers: it secured monumental patronage. That it can actually take off and land, too, is a miracle.
      - Edman274 5y ago
        An experimental fusion reactor is not a large building, or ship, or dam, or bridge. We've been building large buildings since the pyramids of Giza. We've been building large ships since before the Dreadnought. We've been building large dams since at least the Great Depression. The same goes for bridges. I don't think it's intellectually honest to compare budget and time overruns for fusion reactors to budget and time overruns for skyscrapers. You kind of say it without realizing it - "millions of large buildings", well yeah: if we have a lot of practice doing something - like building millions of large buildings - then wouldn't you expect us to do a better job of being on time and on budget than the handful of research efforts into the holy grail of energy production?

ethbr0 5y ago

Time has its own cost, especially multi-stage construction projects. Being delayed imposes costs on downstream work, which must now be ready but in some kind of holding pattern, which imposes costs on work downstream of that work. So a large part of throwing "Manhattan project" / excess funding (and the potential savings by just funding it that way from the start) is avoiding these delays, to the extent possible. It costs +$200,000 to tackle some challenge in a critical piece? Sometimes it's cheaper just to pay.