2 ms·

Everything you mentioned (servers failing, hacks, etc) is operational risk, and that isn't what I'm talking about here. The point here is financial risk: things

Everything you mentioned (servers failing, hacks, etc) is operational risk, and that isn't what I'm talking about here. The point here is financial risk: things like a counterparty defaulting on their loan, the intermediary (a bank, Coinbase or their insurer) going insolvent when that happens too often, and you losing your "guaranteed" money. The US government is generally regarded as the worlds most reliable debtor, and thus US government-backed securities (such as FDIC-guaranteed bank deposits), are seen as the lowest attainable risk and called "risk-free". Anyone offering higher interest rates must do something that incurs more risk to get the returns necessary to be able to pay that higher interest rate.

wallacoloo 5y ago
The consumer primarily cares "what's my expected return, and what's the variance". Operational risk surely affects that, so what's the justification in ignoring it? > The US government is generally regarded as the worlds most reliable debtor, and thus US government-backed securities (such as FDIC-guaranteed bank deposits), are seen as the lowest attainable risk and called "risk-free". Anyone offering higher interest rates must do something that incurs more risk to get the returns necessary to be able to pay that higher interest rate. Look at your wording here: "generally regarded". This is the point I'm after: risk assessment is a thing done by individual actors. Yes, they'll outsource much of this to 3rd parties, but at the end of the day, it's a subjective thing. People with political ties with the US may be more likely to view US banking as a low-risk activity; the disenfranchised or the people with weaker US ties might view it as higher risk. It can be simultaneously true that Alice's risk-adjusted return through Lend is more than her risk-adjusted return through traditional banking, while Bob's risk-adjusted return through Lend is less than through traditional banking. That's not necessarily a contradiction.

wallacoloo 5y ago

The consumer primarily cares "what's my expected return, and what's the variance". Operational risk surely affects that, so what's the justification in ignoring it? > The US government is generally regarded as the worlds most reliable debtor, and thus US government-backed securities (such as FDIC-guaranteed bank deposits), are seen as the lowest attainable risk and called "risk-free". Anyone offering higher interest rates must do something that incurs more risk to get the returns necessary to be able to pay that higher interest rate. Look at your wording here: "generally regarded". This is the point I'm after: risk assessment is a thing done by individual actors. Yes, they'll outsource much of this to 3rd parties, but at the end of the day, it's a subjective thing. People with political ties with the US may be more likely to view US banking as a low-risk activity; the disenfranchised or the people with weaker US ties might view it as higher risk. It can be simultaneously true that Alice's risk-adjusted return through Lend is more than her risk-adjusted return through traditional banking, while Bob's risk-adjusted return through Lend is less than through traditional banking. That's not necessarily a contradiction.