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These are the numbers that matter, and they're not good. They're proudly declaring that they will be producing a bit over 2 million EVs per year by 2030. Tesla

These are the numbers that matter, and they're not good. They're proudly declaring that they will be producing a bit over 2 million EVs per year by 2030. Tesla is currently shipping at a rate of 1m per year. I'm afraid they're going to use their brand power and customer loyalty to drag everyone else down.

Retric 5y ago
We are still talking 8 years at this point. Toyota is going to respond to actual sales not just what they think sales are going to be. Assuming they produce a desirable EV they could still ramp up production well past that by 2030. It’s one thing not to be the company on a new technology, it’s another not to ramp up production when your selling out month after month.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  You can't ramp up production if you don't have the batteries to do so.
  - Retric 5y ago
    It doesn’t take 8 years to build a battery factory. Kicking things off with new models that need extra battery capacity and a factory to manufacture them is a larger hurdle than scaling things after everything is in production.
    - devnulll 5y ago
      > larger hurdle than scaling things after everything is in production The relevant data points we have on this are from Tesla. Elon has been beating the "scaling production is the hardest thing" drum. His callouts around the cost of design vs manufacturing are quite interesting. Now Toyota has been in the at-scale manufacturing game a long time, so perhaps they're just better at this. Either way battery capacity will hold them back for a decade. The investments we're seeing in batteries (LG, Philips, Tesla, VW) are 10x+ what Toyota is doing. I don't see how this results in Toyota able to ship cars in volume as the transition to electric accelerates.
      - Retric 5y ago
        I don’t mean that one or the other is harder, just that doing both takes longer. If Toyota has a battery pack design and factory layout their happy with then they can “just” copy it which saves time over designing the equipment then factory and then building it. As to your 10+x comment that’s very true today, but Toyota isn’t selling any EV’s. It’s perfectly reasonable for them to have a conservative adoption curve right now rather than assuming their going to sell 10m EV’s in 8 years and then potentially massively over build capacity. This is especially true if their aiming for true mainstream cars without significant markup to justify more risky investments.
- deelowe 5y ago
  > Assuming they produce a desirable EV If they aren't serious about EVs, why would they do this? I honestly don't understand Toyota and Honda here. Something is causing them to fight EVs and push for Hydrogen. Patents? Geopolitics? Existing supply chain and manufacturing processes?
  - 3pt14159 5y ago
    I love the Japanese, but there is a culture of deference that cuts both ways. In the right circumstances you get consistent high quality from a master that knows what he's doing and eager proteges trying their best to head their every word. In the wrong circumstances it leads to Fukushima. Say what you will about Americans, this is not their way. Musk was wrong about the vertical doors and over automation and his team kept screaming at him until he didn't just relent he frequently brings it up in interviews as an area where he messed up. The flip side is that for years Japanese automotive manufacturers prized engineering graduates as managers and beat the pants off of over financialized leadership at GM and Ford.
  - fomine3 5y ago
    They just bet multiple energy sources rather than single. Should it be blamed? But I still want they to bet EV more.
- panick21 5y ago
  > Toyota is going to respond to actual sales You can't respond to sales if you don't have a product that you can sell. > Assuming they produce a desirable EV they could still ramp up production well past that by 2030. Sure that goes for every car company. There is no way current plans of Toyota will stand. However they will still be massively behind the curve. It takes years for the supply chain to develop to build 1 million EVs. Battery factories, lithium production, cobalt mining, cathode/anode production all need to scale and there is increasing competition and very limited human resources. Its not so easy to 'just' throw up 50GWh of battery output if in 2026 you decide you want more cars 2030. And if Toyota is last to market with good products and last to realize they need to massively increase production goals it not hard to see how it could be to late.
  - Retric 5y ago
    For comparison Tesla started construing of their Nevada factory in June 2014, it began production in 2016 and was producing 20GWh in 2018. That’s the equivalent of 2026 to 2030. Toyota has been manufacturing lithium ion car batteries since the 97 Prius, and plug in hybrid since 2012. So, I suspect they can ramp up at least that fast if not faster. Will they is of course a completely different story, they aren’t making great EV’s even if they have the expertise and technology to do so.
    - panick21 5y ago
      > A Prius' battery consists of 28 Panasonic nickel-metal hydride modules. Toyota is not producing its own batteries anyway. And the battery manufacturing plant is not actually the biggest difficulty. The problem is that every battery produce has multiple partners and are already scaling as fast as they can and are already oversubscribed. The same goes for lithium and other materials producers. The amount of battery factories in planning or being built is outstripping the amount of lithium, graphite projects being in development and the amount of materials production. Of course you can increase above your initial planning, but for Toyota to remain in the same leadership position it would have to in 2025 say 'we are gone 5-10x' our plans. And that is certainty not easy to do.

Retric 5y ago

We are still talking 8 years at this point. Toyota is going to respond to actual sales not just what they think sales are going to be. Assuming they produce a desirable EV they could still ramp up production well past that by 2030. It’s one thing not to be the company on a new technology, it’s another not to ramp up production when your selling out month after month.

bryanlarsen 5y ago
You can't ramp up production if you don't have the batteries to do so.
- Retric 5y ago
  It doesn’t take 8 years to build a battery factory. Kicking things off with new models that need extra battery capacity and a factory to manufacture them is a larger hurdle than scaling things after everything is in production.
  - devnulll 5y ago
    > larger hurdle than scaling things after everything is in production The relevant data points we have on this are from Tesla. Elon has been beating the "scaling production is the hardest thing" drum. His callouts around the cost of design vs manufacturing are quite interesting. Now Toyota has been in the at-scale manufacturing game a long time, so perhaps they're just better at this. Either way battery capacity will hold them back for a decade. The investments we're seeing in batteries (LG, Philips, Tesla, VW) are 10x+ what Toyota is doing. I don't see how this results in Toyota able to ship cars in volume as the transition to electric accelerates.
    - Retric 5y ago
      I don’t mean that one or the other is harder, just that doing both takes longer. If Toyota has a battery pack design and factory layout their happy with then they can “just” copy it which saves time over designing the equipment then factory and then building it. As to your 10+x comment that’s very true today, but Toyota isn’t selling any EV’s. It’s perfectly reasonable for them to have a conservative adoption curve right now rather than assuming their going to sell 10m EV’s in 8 years and then potentially massively over build capacity. This is especially true if their aiming for true mainstream cars without significant markup to justify more risky investments.
deelowe 5y ago
> Assuming they produce a desirable EV If they aren't serious about EVs, why would they do this? I honestly don't understand Toyota and Honda here. Something is causing them to fight EVs and push for Hydrogen. Patents? Geopolitics? Existing supply chain and manufacturing processes?
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  I love the Japanese, but there is a culture of deference that cuts both ways. In the right circumstances you get consistent high quality from a master that knows what he's doing and eager proteges trying their best to head their every word. In the wrong circumstances it leads to Fukushima. Say what you will about Americans, this is not their way. Musk was wrong about the vertical doors and over automation and his team kept screaming at him until he didn't just relent he frequently brings it up in interviews as an area where he messed up. The flip side is that for years Japanese automotive manufacturers prized engineering graduates as managers and beat the pants off of over financialized leadership at GM and Ford.
- fomine3 5y ago
  They just bet multiple energy sources rather than single. Should it be blamed? But I still want they to bet EV more.
panick21 5y ago
> Toyota is going to respond to actual sales You can't respond to sales if you don't have a product that you can sell. > Assuming they produce a desirable EV they could still ramp up production well past that by 2030. Sure that goes for every car company. There is no way current plans of Toyota will stand. However they will still be massively behind the curve. It takes years for the supply chain to develop to build 1 million EVs. Battery factories, lithium production, cobalt mining, cathode/anode production all need to scale and there is increasing competition and very limited human resources. Its not so easy to 'just' throw up 50GWh of battery output if in 2026 you decide you want more cars 2030. And if Toyota is last to market with good products and last to realize they need to massively increase production goals it not hard to see how it could be to late.
- Retric 5y ago
  For comparison Tesla started construing of their Nevada factory in June 2014, it began production in 2016 and was producing 20GWh in 2018. That’s the equivalent of 2026 to 2030. Toyota has been manufacturing lithium ion car batteries since the 97 Prius, and plug in hybrid since 2012. So, I suspect they can ramp up at least that fast if not faster. Will they is of course a completely different story, they aren’t making great EV’s even if they have the expertise and technology to do so.
  - panick21 5y ago
    > A Prius' battery consists of 28 Panasonic nickel-metal hydride modules. Toyota is not producing its own batteries anyway. And the battery manufacturing plant is not actually the biggest difficulty. The problem is that every battery produce has multiple partners and are already scaling as fast as they can and are already oversubscribed. The same goes for lithium and other materials producers. The amount of battery factories in planning or being built is outstripping the amount of lithium, graphite projects being in development and the amount of materials production. Of course you can increase above your initial planning, but for Toyota to remain in the same leadership position it would have to in 2025 say 'we are gone 5-10x' our plans. And that is certainty not easy to do.