3 ms·

OK, I'll bite. Ontario had 554 new reported cases of COVID yesterday. Of these cases: - 319 were not vaccinated (213 of these were 12+ and therefore eligible

by alex_c 5y ago

OK, I'll bite. Ontario had 554 new reported cases of COVID yesterday. Of these cases: - 319 were not vaccinated (213 of these were 12+ and therefore eligible to be vaccinated) - 56 were partially vaccinated - 136 were fully vaccinated - 44 unknown In other words, roughly 16% of the population (eligible but not vaccinated) is driving close to 40% of reported cases. OK, but reported cases are blah blah, who cares, right? Individual cases will vary in severity and everyone can make their own decisions about risk tolerance, etc etc. But the strain on our health care system is the biggest cost we all share in the pandemic regardless of personal choices, so let's look at ICU numbers instead: - 113 unvaccinated - 7 partially vaccinated - 8 fully vaccinated You can draw your own conclusions. Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/pkbgrz/ontario_sep_8th_update_554_cases_11_new_5_old/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/pkbgrz/ontario_sep...

nanis 5y ago
> Ontario had 554 new reported cases of COVID yesterday. > - 319 were not vaccinated (213 of these were 12+ and therefore eligible to be vaccinated) > 16% of the population (eligible but not vaccinated) is driving close to 50% of reported cases. Your overall point would remain valid even without exaggerating by 28%.
- alex_c 5y ago
  You mean the 50%? You're right, my math was lazy. Edited to 40%.
TheBlight 5y ago
Where I live teachers/in-classroom workers who are unvaccinated are tested 4x per month and vaccinated are tested 1x. You can draw your own conclusions.
- alex_c 5y ago
  That unvaccinated people are higher risk of getting and spreading Covid? I agree, although I'm not sure what is the significance of the 4:1 ratio. Ontario's numbers suggest a risk ratio closer to 7:1 or 8:1 right now.
  - TheBlight 5y ago
    Ok clearly you don't want to discuss this honestly if you want to hand-wave away the fact that unvaccinated people have much stricter testing requirements and as a consequence are tested substantially more often.
    - alex_c 5y ago
      No you are right, reported cases alone can't tell the full picture. Mandatory testing can skew the numbers and probably undercounts vaccinated people. Same if vaccinated people are significantly more likely to be asymptomatic and therefore have no reason to voluntarily go get tested (but if that is the case, it brings us back to "pandemic of the unvaccinated" to some extent). The breakdown is similar on weekends, holidays, etc which suggests that mandatory testing does not skew the numbers significantly in Ontario at least. But as I said: reported cases blah blah, they paint a fairly clear picture to me but there is a lot of complexity there. What about ICU numbers?
      - TheBlight 5y ago
        If you're interested in my opinion on efficacy wrt severe outcomes please see my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28460959 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28460959

by alex_c 5y ago

nanis 5y ago

> Ontario had 554 new reported cases of COVID yesterday. > - 319 were not vaccinated (213 of these were 12+ and therefore eligible to be vaccinated) > 16% of the population (eligible but not vaccinated) is driving close to 50% of reported cases. Your overall point would remain valid even without exaggerating by 28%.

alex_c 5y ago
You mean the 50%? You're right, my math was lazy. Edited to 40%.

TheBlight 5y ago

Where I live teachers/in-classroom workers who are unvaccinated are tested 4x per month and vaccinated are tested 1x. You can draw your own conclusions.

alex_c 5y ago
That unvaccinated people are higher risk of getting and spreading Covid? I agree, although I'm not sure what is the significance of the 4:1 ratio. Ontario's numbers suggest a risk ratio closer to 7:1 or 8:1 right now.
- TheBlight 5y ago
  Ok clearly you don't want to discuss this honestly if you want to hand-wave away the fact that unvaccinated people have much stricter testing requirements and as a consequence are tested substantially more often.
  - alex_c 5y ago
    No you are right, reported cases alone can't tell the full picture. Mandatory testing can skew the numbers and probably undercounts vaccinated people. Same if vaccinated people are significantly more likely to be asymptomatic and therefore have no reason to voluntarily go get tested (but if that is the case, it brings us back to "pandemic of the unvaccinated" to some extent). The breakdown is similar on weekends, holidays, etc which suggests that mandatory testing does not skew the numbers significantly in Ontario at least. But as I said: reported cases blah blah, they paint a fairly clear picture to me but there is a lot of complexity there. What about ICU numbers?
    - TheBlight 5y ago
      If you're interested in my opinion on efficacy wrt severe outcomes please see my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28460959 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28460959