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In threads like this one, I sometimes mention the parable of the Chinese Farmer as told by Alan Watts.[1] It's easily found on YouTube. [1] https://www.youtube

by jes 5y ago

In threads like this one, I sometimes mention the parable of the Chinese Farmer as told by Alan Watts.[1] It's easily found on YouTube. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX0OARBqBp0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX0OARBqBp0

Swenrekcah 5y ago
Nice parable. To anyone that hears it and gets convinced that you can never tell what's good or bad in the world, please note that this only applies to single events within a large complicated system. Not large emergent systemic effects.
- mekal 5y ago
  Can you give a few examples of "large emergent systemic effects"? Just curious.
  - rahimnathwani 5y ago
    Climate change. The Coddling of the American Mind.
    - mekal 5y ago
      What if climate change gives humanity the incentive/drive to create new technologies that end up not only overcoming it but also advancing civilization in ways that we otherwise never would have even dreamed possible? What if we discover that everyone really can "just get along" because we coddled 300 million people into believing it, and it actually becomes a reality in the US and spreads throughout the globe? Even the Taliban ends up being nice and people don't even get picked on in school anymore. I mean...its possible right?
      - rahimnathwani 5y ago
        The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven. Re: coddling of the American mind, I was talking about increasing intolerance of opposing views views, decreasing willingness to seek truth, seeing words as violence etc. It's hard to see a path where this type of thinking becomes universal. No matter how strong that movement, it won't completely eradicate those who believe in freedom of thoughts and freedom of speech.
        mekal 5y ago
        "The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven." I'm not sure how you can fairly put odds on something as complex as climate change, but say you're right. Even so, its still consistent with the parable. What are the odds if your horse runs away that it returns with 7 wild horses? Probably not that good, but it could happen. Like in the parable, you are the neighbor saying "climate change, isn't it awful?" and the farmer would say "maybe". And he wouldn't be wrong. Because maybe implies uncertainty, and you seem to agree it's possible something good can come from climate change. So the parable seems to apply to "emergent systemic effects" as well. But more importantly the real lesson is how that one can chill the fuck out, like the farmer. The neighbors' emotions are ruled by events, but not the farmer because he's not trying to judge these things that are out of his control. It doesn't mean he wouldn't fight climate change. It does mean though he's not gonna be an emotional wreck every time he turns on the news.
- jes 5y ago
  I would also appreciate some examples of large emergent system effects, if you are willing to provide some.
  - linuxstoney 5y ago
    ohh
  - Swenrekcah 5y ago
    The most important one now is Climate change, see my other comment.
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      I was reminded recently that there is a practical solution if people really wanted to get off fossil fuels right now. It's not solar, wind, hydro or fusion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor I'm not interested in a debate, just observing that people who say (correctly or incorrectly) the world is coming to an end don't believe it, because otherwise they'd stop bickering and do what needs to be done.
      - Swenrekcah 5y ago
        I think there’s an incorrect assumption in there, that the people blowing the whistle for the last 30 years have been the people calling the shots. The world isn’t coming to an end but our cozy place in it might very well be. Nuclear power should have been the only thing built by rich countries for the last 5 decades but of course there are real dangers regarding the unreliability of us humans as maintainers and operators.
        perl4ever 5y ago
        The people calling the shots may believe that the costs of stopping climate change outweigh the benefits. On the other hand, they may just think there is no political route to stopping it. I have never been an advocate of nuclear power in general, and I don't think the world needs more conventional fission reactors. I don't believe fusion power will ever be viable either. But my pop-sci understanding of a fast breeder reactor is it consumes waste and produces more fuel. Couldn't it be ripe for someone to take up a similar role to SpaceX only with nuclear power? Assuming we do really believe that climate change has to be stopped at any cost.
- seph-reed 5y ago
  For the sake of not being an over-confident, fledgeling sentience ape; the complexity involved in the question of "is this good or bad" are absolutely, overwhelmingly complex. ---------- If you wanted to truly answer such a question you have to: 1. Be able to perceive multiple timelines in their entirety and 2. be able to convert those entire timelines into some comparable values From where we stand, both of those are impossible, and whatever cascading effects may come from any action are completely invisible. We simply do not know the long term outcomes of our actions, and rarely can prove even short-term causation in the first place. There's an ocean between: - "I did x because I thought it was the right thing" and - "I can tell what's good or bad in the world"
  - Swenrekcah 5y ago
    I agree. What I mean by large systemic effects is for example climate change. I can not know whether me personally, as a specific individual, buying an electric car to go to work is better or worse for the ecosystem than buying a used fuel efficient ICE. I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing. I btw highly recommended Breaking Boundaries on Netflix.
    - seph-reed 5y ago
      > I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing. You really, really, really can not. For all you know, the impending doom of climate change could be the chaotic event that stops us from going full nuclear. Or perhaps humans are bad fruit, and our form of space colonization is filled with rape, torture, and slavery. Perhaps it's better humans die. One really, really, really can not know.
      - Swenrekcah 5y ago
        I can see where you’re coming from but you have departed into theoretical/philosophical mode that’s not useful. I really really really can’t know if the sun comes up tomorrow or 100 days from now either, but it is exceedingly likely and the same is true about my previous statement. Disregard at your own (and all of our) peril.
- Jabbles 5y ago
  I think the crucial point is that although "you can never tell" with certainty, you can be pretty sure of many things.

by jes 5y ago

Swenrekcah 5y ago

Nice parable. To anyone that hears it and gets convinced that you can never tell what's good or bad in the world, please note that this only applies to single events within a large complicated system. Not large emergent systemic effects.

mekal 5y ago
Can you give a few examples of "large emergent systemic effects"? Just curious.
- rahimnathwani 5y ago
  Climate change. The Coddling of the American Mind.
  - mekal 5y ago
    What if climate change gives humanity the incentive/drive to create new technologies that end up not only overcoming it but also advancing civilization in ways that we otherwise never would have even dreamed possible? What if we discover that everyone really can "just get along" because we coddled 300 million people into believing it, and it actually becomes a reality in the US and spreads throughout the globe? Even the Taliban ends up being nice and people don't even get picked on in school anymore. I mean...its possible right?
    - rahimnathwani 5y ago
      The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven. Re: coddling of the American mind, I was talking about increasing intolerance of opposing views views, decreasing willingness to seek truth, seeing words as violence etc. It's hard to see a path where this type of thinking becomes universal. No matter how strong that movement, it won't completely eradicate those who believe in freedom of thoughts and freedom of speech.
      - mekal 5y ago
        "The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven." I'm not sure how you can fairly put odds on something as complex as climate change, but say you're right. Even so, its still consistent with the parable. What are the odds if your horse runs away that it returns with 7 wild horses? Probably not that good, but it could happen. Like in the parable, you are the neighbor saying "climate change, isn't it awful?" and the farmer would say "maybe". And he wouldn't be wrong. Because maybe implies uncertainty, and you seem to agree it's possible something good can come from climate change. So the parable seems to apply to "emergent systemic effects" as well. But more importantly the real lesson is how that one can chill the fuck out, like the farmer. The neighbors' emotions are ruled by events, but not the farmer because he's not trying to judge these things that are out of his control. It doesn't mean he wouldn't fight climate change. It does mean though he's not gonna be an emotional wreck every time he turns on the news.
jes 5y ago
I would also appreciate some examples of large emergent system effects, if you are willing to provide some.
- linuxstoney 5y ago
  ohh
- Swenrekcah 5y ago
  The most important one now is Climate change, see my other comment.
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    I was reminded recently that there is a practical solution if people really wanted to get off fossil fuels right now. It's not solar, wind, hydro or fusion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor I'm not interested in a debate, just observing that people who say (correctly or incorrectly) the world is coming to an end don't believe it, because otherwise they'd stop bickering and do what needs to be done.
    - Swenrekcah 5y ago
      I think there’s an incorrect assumption in there, that the people blowing the whistle for the last 30 years have been the people calling the shots. The world isn’t coming to an end but our cozy place in it might very well be. Nuclear power should have been the only thing built by rich countries for the last 5 decades but of course there are real dangers regarding the unreliability of us humans as maintainers and operators.
      - perl4ever 5y ago
        The people calling the shots may believe that the costs of stopping climate change outweigh the benefits. On the other hand, they may just think there is no political route to stopping it. I have never been an advocate of nuclear power in general, and I don't think the world needs more conventional fission reactors. I don't believe fusion power will ever be viable either. But my pop-sci understanding of a fast breeder reactor is it consumes waste and produces more fuel. Couldn't it be ripe for someone to take up a similar role to SpaceX only with nuclear power? Assuming we do really believe that climate change has to be stopped at any cost.
seph-reed 5y ago
For the sake of not being an over-confident, fledgeling sentience ape; the complexity involved in the question of "is this good or bad" are absolutely, overwhelmingly complex. ---------- If you wanted to truly answer such a question you have to: 1. Be able to perceive multiple timelines in their entirety and 2. be able to convert those entire timelines into some comparable values From where we stand, both of those are impossible, and whatever cascading effects may come from any action are completely invisible. We simply do not know the long term outcomes of our actions, and rarely can prove even short-term causation in the first place. There's an ocean between: - "I did x because I thought it was the right thing" and - "I can tell what's good or bad in the world"
- Swenrekcah 5y ago
  I agree. What I mean by large systemic effects is for example climate change. I can not know whether me personally, as a specific individual, buying an electric car to go to work is better or worse for the ecosystem than buying a used fuel efficient ICE. I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing. I btw highly recommended Breaking Boundaries on Netflix.
  - seph-reed 5y ago
    > I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing. You really, really, really can not. For all you know, the impending doom of climate change could be the chaotic event that stops us from going full nuclear. Or perhaps humans are bad fruit, and our form of space colonization is filled with rape, torture, and slavery. Perhaps it's better humans die. One really, really, really can not know.
    - Swenrekcah 5y ago
      I can see where you’re coming from but you have departed into theoretical/philosophical mode that’s not useful. I really really really can’t know if the sun comes up tomorrow or 100 days from now either, but it is exceedingly likely and the same is true about my previous statement. Disregard at your own (and all of our) peril.
Jabbles 5y ago
I think the crucial point is that although "you can never tell" with certainty, you can be pretty sure of many things.