4 ms·

Lower hospitalization rates amongst the vaccinated seem to suggest less people are getting seriously ill.

cogman10 5y ago
Which is an important point. While the vaccinated are still getting COVID, and even sometimes ending up in the ICU, they very often aren't ending up hospitalized or in the ICU. The vast majority of ICU patients are unvaccinated [1]. [1] https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-icu-patients-hit-record-highs-pandemic-new-report-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-more-15-times https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-...
- TheBlight 5y ago
  It's tempting to look at vaccinated/unvaccinated as a perfect RCT and the unvaccinated are a control group. This clearly isn't the case. There are surely many confounders at play. Looking at this release's underlying report they mention: "The age-adjusted mortality rate among unvaccinated individuals was 5.00 cases per 100,000 unvaccinated population and the age-adjusted mortality rate among vaccinated individuals was 0.33 per 100,000 vaccinated individuals for the four-week period ending August 28, 2021." So the difference in mortality rate is roughly ~5 in 100,000 of the population. This is a very low number. Does it obviously override any possible confounders to indicate a strong signal? Also remember this is age-adjusted. I would imagine this difference is substantially smaller for cohorts omitting the elderly. Is there a material benefit to younger reasonably healthy people? It seems the question is muddier than is typically made out.
  - tzs 5y ago
    Generally when judging how some intervention does compared to not intervening, I believe you would divide the rates not subtract the rates.
    - TheBlight 5y ago
      I guess you're unable to respond to the substance of what I'm saying. Nominal risk reduction of already insanely low risk is not compelling especially when confounders are present and cannot be accounted for.
- charbonneau 5y ago
  > https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-icu-patients-hit-record-highs-pandemic-new-report-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-more-15-times https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-... It's frankly irresponsible to say this. We are talking about what's essentially an exploratory study that needs a LOT of followup before taking action and pushing it in a way that's going to cause people to run scared.
gfodor 5y ago
No it suggests P(severe|vaccinated) is much lower than P(severe|unvaccinated) which isn't the same thing as saying the vaccines reduce P(severe|infected). It's funny I've been downvoted tho because it shows how tribalist people are about vaccines that they can't even understand an argument that has no influence on ex-ante vaccine risk assessment.

Which is an important point. While the vaccinated are still getting COVID, and even sometimes ending up in the ICU, they very often aren't ending up hospitalized or in the ICU. The vast majority of ICU patients are unvaccinated [1]. [1] https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-icu-patients-hit-record-highs-pandemic-new-report-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-more-15-times https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-...

TheBlight 5y ago
It's tempting to look at vaccinated/unvaccinated as a perfect RCT and the unvaccinated are a control group. This clearly isn't the case. There are surely many confounders at play. Looking at this release's underlying report they mention: "The age-adjusted mortality rate among unvaccinated individuals was 5.00 cases per 100,000 unvaccinated population and the age-adjusted mortality rate among vaccinated individuals was 0.33 per 100,000 vaccinated individuals for the four-week period ending August 28, 2021." So the difference in mortality rate is roughly ~5 in 100,000 of the population. This is a very low number. Does it obviously override any possible confounders to indicate a strong signal? Also remember this is age-adjusted. I would imagine this difference is substantially smaller for cohorts omitting the elderly. Is there a material benefit to younger reasonably healthy people? It seems the question is muddier than is typically made out.
- tzs 5y ago
  Generally when judging how some intervention does compared to not intervening, I believe you would divide the rates not subtract the rates.
  - TheBlight 5y ago
    I guess you're unable to respond to the substance of what I'm saying. Nominal risk reduction of already insanely low risk is not compelling especially when confounders are present and cannot be accounted for.
charbonneau 5y ago
> https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-icu-patients-hit-record-highs-pandemic-new-report-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-more-15-times https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-... It's frankly irresponsible to say this. We are talking about what's essentially an exploratory study that needs a LOT of followup before taking action and pushing it in a way that's going to cause people to run scared.

gfodor 5y ago

No it suggests P(severe|vaccinated) is much lower than P(severe|unvaccinated) which isn't the same thing as saying the vaccines reduce P(severe|infected). It's funny I've been downvoted tho because it shows how tribalist people are about vaccines that they can't even understand an argument that has no influence on ex-ante vaccine risk assessment.