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So-called 'trend growth' has been fueled by fossil fuels, with massive increases in the ability to exploit oil fields quickly, occurring since the 40's. Basica

So-called 'trend growth' has been fueled by fossil fuels, with massive increases in the ability to exploit oil fields quickly, occurring since the 40's. Basically, civilization is a heat engine, where prosperity, power, industry is directly tied to how much energy we can burn. Increasing prosperity demands increasing energy. In the case of the US, oil production peaked in 70's, and the US has struggled to increase oil supplies since then. The show-downs with OPEC in the 70's that led to bad recessions are an example of the struggles. As of 2005, World oil production has been basically flat. There's plenty of oil left, the problem is that despite trillions of dollars of CAPEX, it just can't be pumped fast enough to support 6 billion humans at increasing living standards. Hence, World prosperity is probably staying level, but redistributing itself Eastward towards Asia. edit: Per NBC, there are 45 million Americans claiming foodstamps in order to feed themselves. That's a very scary contrast with how the US normally thinks of itself.

redthrowaway 15y ago
>Per NBC, there are 45 million Americans claiming foodstamps in order to feed themselves. That number is set to increase with severe cuts to entitlements and the unlikelihood of another extension of unemployment benefits. Americans have really drunk the Kool-Aid on the notion of American exceptionalism. The idea that America is somehow special, possessed of some manifest destiny and unable to lose has been so deeply engrained in the American psyche, and for so long, that even now the notion of failure seems too fanciful to enter the common narrative. America is not special. It's been favoured by politics and luck, but there's nothing keeping it on top besides continued prosperity. Look at Japan for an example of what could easily happen: a high-tech economy with a massive banking and manufacturing sector, that collapsed then...never really restarted. There are, in fact, many parallels between the Japanese and American recessions. While Japan is still a massive innovator, the benefits have not trickled down to the average Japanese citizen. China long ago took over as the biggest economy in Asia, and could easily supplant the US globally if current trends continue. To face these challenges, the US has...Congress. The leadership vacuum in Washington is downright depressing. Amidst bitter political bickering, the disaffected masses turn to the demagoguery of the Tea Party, further perpetuating the political morass. Can anyone see a viable, achievable solution? Cutting the deficit is critically important, yet any proposed method of doing so seems likely to hurt the economy at a time when it simply can't take it. Everything seems poised to get much worse before it gets better.
- watchandwait 15y ago
  America is exceptional, just read the founding documents, there's been nothing like the American experiment in liberty before or since. That freedom resulted in unprecedented prosperity and innovation. The Tea Party movement seeks to restore that, and their plan of budget austerity is the only path forward. The other way-- profligate spending and stimulus-- is the path that Japan took and it failed.
  - redthrowaway 15y ago
    That you believe that just further speaks to my point.

redthrowaway 15y ago

>Per NBC, there are 45 million Americans claiming foodstamps in order to feed themselves. That number is set to increase with severe cuts to entitlements and the unlikelihood of another extension of unemployment benefits. Americans have really drunk the Kool-Aid on the notion of American exceptionalism. The idea that America is somehow special, possessed of some manifest destiny and unable to lose has been so deeply engrained in the American psyche, and for so long, that even now the notion of failure seems too fanciful to enter the common narrative. America is not special. It's been favoured by politics and luck, but there's nothing keeping it on top besides continued prosperity. Look at Japan for an example of what could easily happen: a high-tech economy with a massive banking and manufacturing sector, that collapsed then...never really restarted. There are, in fact, many parallels between the Japanese and American recessions. While Japan is still a massive innovator, the benefits have not trickled down to the average Japanese citizen. China long ago took over as the biggest economy in Asia, and could easily supplant the US globally if current trends continue. To face these challenges, the US has...Congress. The leadership vacuum in Washington is downright depressing. Amidst bitter political bickering, the disaffected masses turn to the demagoguery of the Tea Party, further perpetuating the political morass. Can anyone see a viable, achievable solution? Cutting the deficit is critically important, yet any proposed method of doing so seems likely to hurt the economy at a time when it simply can't take it. Everything seems poised to get much worse before it gets better.

watchandwait 15y ago
America is exceptional, just read the founding documents, there's been nothing like the American experiment in liberty before or since. That freedom resulted in unprecedented prosperity and innovation. The Tea Party movement seeks to restore that, and their plan of budget austerity is the only path forward. The other way-- profligate spending and stimulus-- is the path that Japan took and it failed.
- redthrowaway 15y ago
  That you believe that just further speaks to my point.