3 ms·
About a 2% chance of catching it before the end of the year. Much higher than I expected. There could be another spike this Fall and Winter, which would incre
by vharuck 5y ago
About a 2% chance of catching it before the end of the year. Much higher than I expected. There could be another spike this Fall and Winter, which would increase the chance. But, hopefully, more people getting vaccinated and possibly booster-shot would drive the chance down.
- graeme 5y agoNo, 7%. And that’s at july-aug rates. Cases up 2x since the average in study period. Also infections lower than reported cases by perhaps 3x. Also delta went from 60% at start of study period to 100% now. Take 6x multiplier + delta prevalence and you get ~50% annual breakthrough odds at current average daily case rates.