> Your math is rather suspect; 1 in 5000 daily chance [. . .] for 10 days [. . .] that's a 1 in 500 The poster was correct. A 1/5000 daily chance is about 1/7

> Your math is rather suspect; 1 in 5000 daily chance [. . .] for 10 days [. . .] that's a 1 in 500 The poster was correct. A 1/5000 daily chance is about 1/7 chance for a two year period. Your math, on the other hand, is wrong. If it didn’t seem wrong to you on an intuitive level (that is, if you didn’t know a binomial distribution would be necessary) you are at great risk for being easily misled.