6 ms·

It will never happen. The talk will keep going, but it will never happen. In the case it does, it would be over Taiwan, not over a writer. I know people want to

It will never happen. The talk will keep going, but it will never happen. In the case it does, it would be over Taiwan, not over a writer. I know people want to think human rights' are important (to their governments), but the governments would never place too much value on human rights in their calculation. (Taliban being the example) Cutting business ties is a playable card, but not over this. China knew. If you were the president of a country, you wouldn't either. There is too much on the table already to just give it away.

echelon 5y ago
We can get everything we currently get from China from India and Vietnam instead. It's just a matter of time. The focus of the 2020s and 2030s will be decoupling and decentralizing. New trading partners will be comfortably lower down the value chain, and we won't make the mistake of letting suppliers turn into adversaries again.
- dustintrex 5y ago
  Oh yes we will, because business chases after the absolute lowest cost, and for manufacturing anything more complex than a T-shirt, the place to be remains China.
  - eeiac928 5y ago
    Businesses tend to prefer paying through the nose when it makes sense to for the executives to pay themselves and their allies. The absolute lowest number on cost is zero. China's governing organising principle over the last two U. S. presidents sounds rational if you compare the imagery of Jan 6's q-anon-man to 89's tankman.
- beaunative 5y ago
  You are reading a lot on the 'conflicts' between China and the United States because China is potentially challenging US' dominance, and having competing interests in more areas than any would want. You wouldn't read this thirty years ago, not when the Soviet Union still have its influence. When the US is trying to have China on its side. Shared and competiing interest is, and will always the core of any diplomatic relationship. China isn't any less commie or more worker-friendly back then, but that wasn't the focus of the conversation isn't it. Vietnam isn't less commie than China is. India doesn't have better working conditions than China is. We aren't reading them because they are not as significant. Vietnam is simply too small, and India is still struggling to find its own way.
- Chris2048 5y ago
  I'm not sure about India, but why not Taiwan / Thailand / Indonesia etc.
jeswin 5y ago
> In the case it does, it would be over Taiwan, not over a writer. I don't think the parent post is implying they'll do anything over a writer. But there is significant awareness now regarding the threat CCP poses. Last week Lithuania recalled their ambassador to China, and they're urging EU to cut dependence on China. Post-Merkel Germany might take a stronger stance against China, going by what their leaders are saying of late.
- mschuster91 5y ago
  German here. At the moment, our government is bought out by the automotive industry which has achieved market saturation... the only markets they can grow is China and India. That changing entirely depends on who wins the election in a month. If it will be Red-Green (Social Democrat + Greens) or Red-Red-Green (Socialists + Social Democrat + Greens), it might very well be that we will cutting down the influence of the automotive lobbyists... but if we end up with the free-market liberals (FDP, yellow) or, worse, the endemically corrupt Conservatives (CDU/CSU, black) we will keep on bowing to the whims of everyone who can't grow in the Western markets. For everyone in Germany: please vote. This election is crucial.
  - ChemSpider 5y ago
    I am as critical of the German car industry as you are. And with their dependence on the Chinese market they are in a really miserable situation. But as so often, things are not that easy and are more grey than black and white: The liberals (FDP) are among the biggest supports of closer contacts to Taiwan, while some parts of the Socialists (Die Linke) argue that the Tiananmen Square massacre did not happen.
    - mschuster91 5y ago
      The FDP will fold in the way that lines their pockets, I don't have an ounce of trust in them - and I didn't forget their "besser nicht regieren als falsch regieren" either. Regarding the tankies in our leftie rows... you are completely correct and I hope that in an R2G coalition the foreign ministry ends up at someone from the Greens. SPD botched it the last time with Maas and we have too many questionable comrades to fill that job with someone guaranteed sane...

echelon 5y ago

We can get everything we currently get from China from India and Vietnam instead. It's just a matter of time. The focus of the 2020s and 2030s will be decoupling and decentralizing. New trading partners will be comfortably lower down the value chain, and we won't make the mistake of letting suppliers turn into adversaries again.

dustintrex 5y ago
Oh yes we will, because business chases after the absolute lowest cost, and for manufacturing anything more complex than a T-shirt, the place to be remains China.
- eeiac928 5y ago
  Businesses tend to prefer paying through the nose when it makes sense to for the executives to pay themselves and their allies. The absolute lowest number on cost is zero. China's governing organising principle over the last two U. S. presidents sounds rational if you compare the imagery of Jan 6's q-anon-man to 89's tankman.
beaunative 5y ago
You are reading a lot on the 'conflicts' between China and the United States because China is potentially challenging US' dominance, and having competing interests in more areas than any would want. You wouldn't read this thirty years ago, not when the Soviet Union still have its influence. When the US is trying to have China on its side. Shared and competiing interest is, and will always the core of any diplomatic relationship. China isn't any less commie or more worker-friendly back then, but that wasn't the focus of the conversation isn't it. Vietnam isn't less commie than China is. India doesn't have better working conditions than China is. We aren't reading them because they are not as significant. Vietnam is simply too small, and India is still struggling to find its own way.
Chris2048 5y ago
I'm not sure about India, but why not Taiwan / Thailand / Indonesia etc.

jeswin 5y ago

> In the case it does, it would be over Taiwan, not over a writer. I don't think the parent post is implying they'll do anything over a writer. But there is significant awareness now regarding the threat CCP poses. Last week Lithuania recalled their ambassador to China, and they're urging EU to cut dependence on China. Post-Merkel Germany might take a stronger stance against China, going by what their leaders are saying of late.

mschuster91 5y ago
German here. At the moment, our government is bought out by the automotive industry which has achieved market saturation... the only markets they can grow is China and India. That changing entirely depends on who wins the election in a month. If it will be Red-Green (Social Democrat + Greens) or Red-Red-Green (Socialists + Social Democrat + Greens), it might very well be that we will cutting down the influence of the automotive lobbyists... but if we end up with the free-market liberals (FDP, yellow) or, worse, the endemically corrupt Conservatives (CDU/CSU, black) we will keep on bowing to the whims of everyone who can't grow in the Western markets. For everyone in Germany: please vote. This election is crucial.
- ChemSpider 5y ago
  I am as critical of the German car industry as you are. And with their dependence on the Chinese market they are in a really miserable situation. But as so often, things are not that easy and are more grey than black and white: The liberals (FDP) are among the biggest supports of closer contacts to Taiwan, while some parts of the Socialists (Die Linke) argue that the Tiananmen Square massacre did not happen.
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    The FDP will fold in the way that lines their pockets, I don't have an ounce of trust in them - and I didn't forget their "besser nicht regieren als falsch regieren" either. Regarding the tankies in our leftie rows... you are completely correct and I hope that in an R2G coalition the foreign ministry ends up at someone from the Greens. SPD botched it the last time with Maas and we have too many questionable comrades to fill that job with someone guaranteed sane...