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Insert midcurve meme here. This reads like massive cope. One thing I've learned the hard way in life is when something goes on for years that I don't quite und

by gbasin 5y ago

Insert midcurve meme here. This reads like massive cope. One thing I've learned the hard way in life is when something goes on for years that I don't quite understand, and yet it keeps growing and getting more popular, usually I'm the one that's wrong.

gfodor 5y ago
A good tell on this one for this post specifically is it is writing down a fairly obvious, oft-repeated “rebuttal”, which is largely predicated on the people being rebutted being entirely compromised by greed and/or ignorance. This person would be incapable, it seems, to steelman his/her opponent given the contempt for them, so that backstops the notion their analysis is mostly noise.
- kevingadd 5y ago
  Does the rebuttal being "fairly obvious, oft-repeated" somehow mean that nobody actually uses it or it somehow doesn't deserve mention? If people are repeating it, they're repeating it.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    Repeating it is fine, but the longer time goes on where it’s repeated, the more the person proposing it looks like they think their opponents are just deficient not merely ignorant of the argument. The person here did us the favor of revealing their belief that their opponents are deficient, so that is helpful in reducing the weight of their post, but often this isn’t so obvious.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
arcticbull 5y ago
> Insert midcurve meme here. This reads like massive cope. Cope is the single worst, dumbest argument you can possibly deploy because it means nothing other than you are unable to or uninterested in refuting any points levied. It's a strongly left-curve argument to engage with your meme. While the truth is, if you'd invested in TQQQ the majority of time over the last 5 years you'd have had a better return than BTC. I could make the same exact cope argument about that, but of course, that's a worthless argument. Every single day you're missing out on an investment that performs just as well as any crypto investment. Investment opportunities are like a bus route: there's always another one coming down the pike. Let's focus on the facts instead? I'm led to believe this isn't r/Bitcoin. [edit] remember: right + broke, and wrong + wealthy are both completely valid outcomes.
- anonymoushn 5y ago
  It looks like there are maybe 12 months out of the last 60 months when buying TQQQ and holding until today would have beaten buying BTC and holding until today.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    I ran the numbers last week. Things change fast, but the fact they're in the same ball-park is IMO all I need to validate my position. My point remains: there's a ton of ways to make money that you're missing out on every single minute, and Bitcoin's returns aren't unheard-of. It's just that in the crypto market everyone's risk-reward profile is set to "sweet mother of Jesus" whereas in traditional markets most people focus on capital preservation and slow, predictable growth. If you set your risk-reward profile to "sweet mother of Jesus" in traditional markets you can achieve the same returns with less risk.
    - anonymoushn 5y ago
      >If you set your risk-reward profile to "sweet mother of Jesus" in traditional markets you can achieve the same returns with less risk. I wouldn't pitch anyone on putting their net worth in bitcoin or whatever, but I don't think this is true. If you talk to some quant and the quant tells you to scale your allocations to various assets based on their volatility, then if the underlying assets are not very volatile then you end up really levered and can be wiped out in "out-of-model" events, but if the underlying assets are very volatile then you don't have this issue, and you make a bit of money by rebalancing. Your quant will also tell you, if your plan is to buy and hold a "3x long daily return" ETF, that it is the nature of such ETFs to go to zero, and they can say this much more confidently about the ETF than about bitcoin. I've also found that one can generate returns similar to the returns historically generated by being 1x long BTC with a really conservative risk-reward profile. My current work is to operate a fund based on this finding.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        > Your quant will also tell you, if your plan is to buy and hold a "3x long daily return" ETF, that it is the nature of such ETFs to go to zero, and they can say this much more confidently about the ETF than about bitcoin. This is a common trope, and it is in fact demonstrably wrong. TQQQ is up 160X from 10 years ago. UPRO is up like 60X in the same time period. Leveraged ETFs "go to zero" in the event the index they track bounces around a mean value or stays dead flat. In the event the index exhibits positive directionality, they do the opposite of going to zero, and instead outperform the sticker leverage. Over its history the UPRO 3X leveraged S&P 500 ETF has actually tracked about 5X the index. So their confidence is misplaced, and instead, as I mentioned demonstrates their tendency towards low-risk capital preservation strategies. If you believe in the positive directionality of the NASDAQ moving forward, I doubt there's a better risk-reward profile than TQQQ as it caps your loss on downside while simultaneously exposing you to a lot more than 3X the upside. [edited for tone not reading as friendly as intended] This doesn't look like going to zero to me ;) [1] Could it? Sure. It's risky. I'd love to see your fund's performance analysis replacing BTC with TQQQ! [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TQQQ https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TQQQ
meirelles 5y ago
I can't emphasize enough on this! The future doesn't give a damn about your reasoning, no matter how much well-tightened it is. Before us, uncountable incredibly smart people got mistaken. As Elon said, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely. And guess what, entertaining outcomes are unpredictable. He might be wrong, which ironically illustrates what I've just said.
smoldesu 5y ago
I've worked on DeFi since 2014, I'd say the vast majority of things said here are perfectly reasonable. All cryptocurrency is a bubble at the end of the day, and if you don't have an exfil plan for your investments then you had better be prepared to get two big bags of nothing when you cash out.
cblconfederate 5y ago
that's a good heuristic

by gbasin 5y ago

gfodor 5y ago

A good tell on this one for this post specifically is it is writing down a fairly obvious, oft-repeated “rebuttal”, which is largely predicated on the people being rebutted being entirely compromised by greed and/or ignorance. This person would be incapable, it seems, to steelman his/her opponent given the contempt for them, so that backstops the notion their analysis is mostly noise.

kevingadd 5y ago
Does the rebuttal being "fairly obvious, oft-repeated" somehow mean that nobody actually uses it or it somehow doesn't deserve mention? If people are repeating it, they're repeating it.
- gfodor 5y ago
  Repeating it is fine, but the longer time goes on where it’s repeated, the more the person proposing it looks like they think their opponents are just deficient not merely ignorant of the argument. The person here did us the favor of revealing their belief that their opponents are deficient, so that is helpful in reducing the weight of their post, but often this isn’t so obvious.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

arcticbull 5y ago

> Insert midcurve meme here. This reads like massive cope. Cope is the single worst, dumbest argument you can possibly deploy because it means nothing other than you are unable to or uninterested in refuting any points levied. It's a strongly left-curve argument to engage with your meme. While the truth is, if you'd invested in TQQQ the majority of time over the last 5 years you'd have had a better return than BTC. I could make the same exact cope argument about that, but of course, that's a worthless argument. Every single day you're missing out on an investment that performs just as well as any crypto investment. Investment opportunities are like a bus route: there's always another one coming down the pike. Let's focus on the facts instead? I'm led to believe this isn't r/Bitcoin. [edit] remember: right + broke, and wrong + wealthy are both completely valid outcomes.

anonymoushn 5y ago
It looks like there are maybe 12 months out of the last 60 months when buying TQQQ and holding until today would have beaten buying BTC and holding until today.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  I ran the numbers last week. Things change fast, but the fact they're in the same ball-park is IMO all I need to validate my position. My point remains: there's a ton of ways to make money that you're missing out on every single minute, and Bitcoin's returns aren't unheard-of. It's just that in the crypto market everyone's risk-reward profile is set to "sweet mother of Jesus" whereas in traditional markets most people focus on capital preservation and slow, predictable growth. If you set your risk-reward profile to "sweet mother of Jesus" in traditional markets you can achieve the same returns with less risk.
  - anonymoushn 5y ago
    >If you set your risk-reward profile to "sweet mother of Jesus" in traditional markets you can achieve the same returns with less risk. I wouldn't pitch anyone on putting their net worth in bitcoin or whatever, but I don't think this is true. If you talk to some quant and the quant tells you to scale your allocations to various assets based on their volatility, then if the underlying assets are not very volatile then you end up really levered and can be wiped out in "out-of-model" events, but if the underlying assets are very volatile then you don't have this issue, and you make a bit of money by rebalancing. Your quant will also tell you, if your plan is to buy and hold a "3x long daily return" ETF, that it is the nature of such ETFs to go to zero, and they can say this much more confidently about the ETF than about bitcoin. I've also found that one can generate returns similar to the returns historically generated by being 1x long BTC with a really conservative risk-reward profile. My current work is to operate a fund based on this finding.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      > Your quant will also tell you, if your plan is to buy and hold a "3x long daily return" ETF, that it is the nature of such ETFs to go to zero, and they can say this much more confidently about the ETF than about bitcoin. This is a common trope, and it is in fact demonstrably wrong. TQQQ is up 160X from 10 years ago. UPRO is up like 60X in the same time period. Leveraged ETFs "go to zero" in the event the index they track bounces around a mean value or stays dead flat. In the event the index exhibits positive directionality, they do the opposite of going to zero, and instead outperform the sticker leverage. Over its history the UPRO 3X leveraged S&P 500 ETF has actually tracked about 5X the index. So their confidence is misplaced, and instead, as I mentioned demonstrates their tendency towards low-risk capital preservation strategies. If you believe in the positive directionality of the NASDAQ moving forward, I doubt there's a better risk-reward profile than TQQQ as it caps your loss on downside while simultaneously exposing you to a lot more than 3X the upside. [edited for tone not reading as friendly as intended] This doesn't look like going to zero to me ;) [1] Could it? Sure. It's risky. I'd love to see your fund's performance analysis replacing BTC with TQQQ! [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TQQQ https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TQQQ

meirelles 5y ago

I can't emphasize enough on this! The future doesn't give a damn about your reasoning, no matter how much well-tightened it is. Before us, uncountable incredibly smart people got mistaken. As Elon said, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely. And guess what, entertaining outcomes are unpredictable. He might be wrong, which ironically illustrates what I've just said.

smoldesu 5y ago

I've worked on DeFi since 2014, I'd say the vast majority of things said here are perfectly reasonable. All cryptocurrency is a bubble at the end of the day, and if you don't have an exfil plan for your investments then you had better be prepared to get two big bags of nothing when you cash out.

cblconfederate 5y ago

that's a good heuristic