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A lot of large problems tend to stem from picking short term strategies. A relentless focus on quarterly profits likely causes more issues than prioritizing in

A lot of large problems tend to stem from picking short term strategies. A relentless focus on quarterly profits likely causes more issues than prioritizing investors though the two are related.

Ericson2314 5y ago
Moreover, it is quite unclear whether capitalism is capable of optimizing over the long term at all. Suppose we had two planets. Then if global warming got really bad on one, the other would charge crazy fees to refugees --- turn them into indentured servants to the 5th generation or something, and all the investments on the hot planet would loose their value relative the good planet. Clearly, the hot planet's rich people would not want to become indentured servants like everyone else -- for they have little to offer to the cold planet, and so global warming would be prevented. (Aside, I suppose this is/once was Musk's plan, but his timing is off.) Without the other planet, civilization can mostly collapse, but not ones investments go to shit relative and advanced society elsewhere. I suppose there can be an small states in the far north, but the rich people will get priority to move there and could sill own everything. All our standards of living go down, but they get to keep their relative position in society, which is mostly what they care about anyways (at least as long as the standard of living declines slow enough to not be too salient. Of course, the rich people could still do that if there are two planets, but the cold planet elite will mock and scorn the rich planet elite for being so much poorer holed up in Siberia/Canada. --- We see a similar problem with this chip shortage / lack of inventories. Everyone else did, so no one is loosing market share. The widgets you can sell command a high price, too. What are the consequences? Only when demand crashes do firms suffer.
- anchpop 5y ago
  > Aside, I suppose this is Musk's plan, but his timing is off. I see people say things like this often but it doesn’t make sense. No matter how bad global warming gets, earth will always be more habitable than mars.
  - Ericson2314 5y ago
    Well yes, he can't be so dumb as not have not realized this. I also it doesn't make sense, and the more benign reasons (more planets derisk) are related. I am just sure it came up at some point in discussion, and is still useful as a family of tall-tale narratives.
- WalterBright 5y ago
  > it is quite unclear whether capitalism is capable of optimizing over the long term at all. Do you have evidence that socialism/communism is better at it? Politicians, for example, infamously "kick the can down the road" for the costs of their decisions. They don't care about consequences after the next election.
  - Ericson2314 5y ago
    Well, for starters, I did not claim other things were better at this than Capitalism :). I don't know of a silver bullet. Planning can probably do it some times, and probably not do it other times. What I do know is that poverty traps are sort of a curse of short term optimization. So it's imperative to make people feel less precarious or they will not care about these things as much as the elites who like to sit around and mull about abstract world-historic issues.

A lot of large problems tend to stem from picking short term strategies. A relentless focus on quarterly profits likely causes more issues than prioritizing investors though the two are related.

Ericson2314 5y ago

Moreover, it is quite unclear whether capitalism is capable of optimizing over the long term at all. Suppose we had two planets. Then if global warming got really bad on one, the other would charge crazy fees to refugees --- turn them into indentured servants to the 5th generation or something, and all the investments on the hot planet would loose their value relative the good planet. Clearly, the hot planet's rich people would not want to become indentured servants like everyone else -- for they have little to offer to the cold planet, and so global warming would be prevented. (Aside, I suppose this is/once was Musk's plan, but his timing is off.) Without the other planet, civilization can mostly collapse, but not ones investments go to shit relative and advanced society elsewhere. I suppose there can be an small states in the far north, but the rich people will get priority to move there and could sill own everything. All our standards of living go down, but they get to keep their relative position in society, which is mostly what they care about anyways (at least as long as the standard of living declines slow enough to not be too salient. Of course, the rich people could still do that if there are two planets, but the cold planet elite will mock and scorn the rich planet elite for being so much poorer holed up in Siberia/Canada. --- We see a similar problem with this chip shortage / lack of inventories. Everyone else did, so no one is loosing market share. The widgets you can sell command a high price, too. What are the consequences? Only when demand crashes do firms suffer.

anchpop 5y ago
> Aside, I suppose this is Musk's plan, but his timing is off. I see people say things like this often but it doesn’t make sense. No matter how bad global warming gets, earth will always be more habitable than mars.
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  Well yes, he can't be so dumb as not have not realized this. I also it doesn't make sense, and the more benign reasons (more planets derisk) are related. I am just sure it came up at some point in discussion, and is still useful as a family of tall-tale narratives.
WalterBright 5y ago
> it is quite unclear whether capitalism is capable of optimizing over the long term at all. Do you have evidence that socialism/communism is better at it? Politicians, for example, infamously "kick the can down the road" for the costs of their decisions. They don't care about consequences after the next election.
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  Well, for starters, I did not claim other things were better at this than Capitalism :). I don't know of a silver bullet. Planning can probably do it some times, and probably not do it other times. What I do know is that poverty traps are sort of a curse of short term optimization. So it's imperative to make people feel less precarious or they will not care about these things as much as the elites who like to sit around and mull about abstract world-historic issues.