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Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not

Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not saying we are going to self destruct, I don’t have a crystal ball to predict that, but it seems to me that right now we’re right on track towards it and the trainwreck is becoming harder and harder to avoid. Global warming and climate change is becoming more acute as years pass by and yet there are still people who think it is a hoax. If half the people around the took it seriously the other half would easily thwart their efforts by noncomplying.

kortilla 5y ago
But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would still only put us where we were less than 200 years ago.
- tartoran 5y ago
  Yes, the individual risk has decreased but that is only if things stay the same and that doesn’t seem to me as very likely. Maybe we’ll colonize other solar systems and evolve further into something else if we manage to keep it together.
- eCa 5y ago
  > But even that would still only put us where we were less than 200 years ago. With the exception that all easily accessible resources are gone. Might be a net positive - we will see.
- tarsinge 5y ago
  > as technology advanced The current shortage give us a glimpse of how fragile it is though. I don't see how we could handle a more serious disruption.
  - kortilla 5y ago
    This disruption is about as serious as it gets (global pandemic) and I can still buy a brand new iPhone. This isn’t shit compared to things like the gas rations in the oil crisis.
- richardw 5y ago
  Or if the AI thing doesn’t work out. Or some retarded President ends up in a nuclear war with China/Russia. Either of those are way above 1% chance of entirely hosing civilisation. AI is binary. We get on with it or we don’t. Nukes are a continuous threat until they are 100% solved. People don’t usually get worse at technology so once your neighbour Larry can build a nuke or whip up an AI with his own special flavour, we need something not-invented to protect us.
- mellavora 5y ago
  Humanity's PRESENT has never been more certain, and yes, at present almost every human has it better than at any other time in history. But it is dangerous to extrapolate that this means our FUTURE is so certain, especially given that we have irreversibly destroyed the environment and conditions which gave us our current prosperity.

kortilla 5y ago

But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would still only put us where we were less than 200 years ago.

tartoran 5y ago
Yes, the individual risk has decreased but that is only if things stay the same and that doesn’t seem to me as very likely. Maybe we’ll colonize other solar systems and evolve further into something else if we manage to keep it together.
eCa 5y ago
> But even that would still only put us where we were less than 200 years ago. With the exception that all easily accessible resources are gone. Might be a net positive - we will see.
tarsinge 5y ago
> as technology advanced The current shortage give us a glimpse of how fragile it is though. I don't see how we could handle a more serious disruption.
- kortilla 5y ago
  This disruption is about as serious as it gets (global pandemic) and I can still buy a brand new iPhone. This isn’t shit compared to things like the gas rations in the oil crisis.
richardw 5y ago
Or if the AI thing doesn’t work out. Or some retarded President ends up in a nuclear war with China/Russia. Either of those are way above 1% chance of entirely hosing civilisation. AI is binary. We get on with it or we don’t. Nukes are a continuous threat until they are 100% solved. People don’t usually get worse at technology so once your neighbour Larry can build a nuke or whip up an AI with his own special flavour, we need something not-invented to protect us.
mellavora 5y ago
Humanity's PRESENT has never been more certain, and yes, at present almost every human has it better than at any other time in history. But it is dangerous to extrapolate that this means our FUTURE is so certain, especially given that we have irreversibly destroyed the environment and conditions which gave us our current prosperity.