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I don't think we appreciate the difficulties of a post-Peak-oil world. For the latter part of the past-decade Hubbert's theory was rubbished because of new sup

I don't think we appreciate the difficulties of a post-Peak-oil world. For the latter part of the past-decade Hubbert's theory was rubbished because of new supplies from fracking and tar-sands, but the basic hypothesis: that there is a finite supply of cheap oil remains. There is little doubt that this resource will run out soon, putting an end to cheap transport, cheap agri (fertilizers, mechanization), and pretty much everything else we take for granted in the new 'modern' world. It's unclear how the world can support 10B population in this scenario, even taking into account the developments in electric and hydrogen vehicles etc. In fact, one wonders if the first world will be worse off because of its extreme reliance on this. This is a far bigger reason for the eco push, much more so than Global Warming IMO.

labster 5y ago
Worst case scenario we have a few hundred years of coal remaining. But fortunately in most developed nations, population is decreasing when you exclude immigration. As we improve standards of living, population will fall to more manageable levels. We are smart enough to escape the Malthusian trap.
Sevii 5y ago
10 years ago I'd agree with your sentiment. But now? I really think peak oil is overblown. A realistic scenario is linear or polynomial increases in oil prices over the next couple decades. The long tail of oil may end up at $10-20 a gallon before electric vehicles replace it completely. Electric vehicle technology is ready to replace oil for all commuter and in-city use cases. Is it cheaper maybe not, but its not 10x more expensive. Maybe people will have to have an electric sedan instead of a $50k SUV. But people will make do. According to https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... 66% of US oil usage goes to transportation. If we shift all short in-cities transportation to electric we can save oil for long haul trucks, trains, ships, planes, and industrial/agricultural uses. As oil supplies dwindle the price will increase until most of the demand (transportation) is shifted to electric vehicles. Food and plastics might increase in price. But the average American will be able to continue their car heavy lifestyle by switching to electric. I'm very optimistic on the future of solar and wind power. We may see average energy prices decrease significantly despite phasing out oil, coal and natural gas. But even if there are no further improvements in renewables I think electric vehicles will be good enough to avoid a peak oil crisis.
esarbe 5y ago
Nah. Running out of oil would just end our way of life. Climate change and our predatory exploitation of natural resources on the other way will end our lives. We've already lost more than 70% of biomass and roundabout the same number in biodiversity. Since the 1970. This trend shows no sign of stopping. Seriously; we're wrecking our own life support system. Systems evolved under the constrains of natural selection are incredible resilient. But we've been pushing it very, very, very hard for the last 250 years and we've pushed it very close to the cliff.

labster 5y ago

Worst case scenario we have a few hundred years of coal remaining. But fortunately in most developed nations, population is decreasing when you exclude immigration. As we improve standards of living, population will fall to more manageable levels. We are smart enough to escape the Malthusian trap.

Sevii 5y ago

10 years ago I'd agree with your sentiment. But now? I really think peak oil is overblown. A realistic scenario is linear or polynomial increases in oil prices over the next couple decades. The long tail of oil may end up at $10-20 a gallon before electric vehicles replace it completely. Electric vehicle technology is ready to replace oil for all commuter and in-city use cases. Is it cheaper maybe not, but its not 10x more expensive. Maybe people will have to have an electric sedan instead of a $50k SUV. But people will make do. According to https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... 66% of US oil usage goes to transportation. If we shift all short in-cities transportation to electric we can save oil for long haul trucks, trains, ships, planes, and industrial/agricultural uses. As oil supplies dwindle the price will increase until most of the demand (transportation) is shifted to electric vehicles. Food and plastics might increase in price. But the average American will be able to continue their car heavy lifestyle by switching to electric. I'm very optimistic on the future of solar and wind power. We may see average energy prices decrease significantly despite phasing out oil, coal and natural gas. But even if there are no further improvements in renewables I think electric vehicles will be good enough to avoid a peak oil crisis.

esarbe 5y ago

Nah. Running out of oil would just end our way of life. Climate change and our predatory exploitation of natural resources on the other way will end our lives. We've already lost more than 70% of biomass and roundabout the same number in biodiversity. Since the 1970. This trend shows no sign of stopping. Seriously; we're wrecking our own life support system. Systems evolved under the constrains of natural selection are incredible resilient. But we've been pushing it very, very, very hard for the last 250 years and we've pushed it very close to the cliff.