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That depends on just how fine-grained their control on the election is. They might not lose, but they could still be embarrassed or greatly inconvenienced by th

That depends on just how fine-grained their control on the election is. They might not lose, but they could still be embarrassed or greatly inconvenienced by the results. And you don't always need to chip away at the armor too much before a critical weakness is revealed. Once the party is no longer viewed as unassailable things could change more rapidly. I'll admit that's a very optimistic view of things though. It has to be a little hard to stick your neck out in Russian politics when the result may be transdermal poison secretly smeared on the insides of your underwear. (And that is not an exaggeration or speculation of the risk)

baybal2 5y ago
Vladivostok is one place in Russia where Putin genuinely struggles to get even single digits of approval ratings. It's one of the only places in Russia a jury acquits a person 3 times, just for him to finally get jailed for the 4th. 2018 token provincial elections had Lutun's candidate lose despite ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE fraud. And yet they still pulled this at the end: https://meduza.io/impro/LCjzlLaaoQX5pld_zlmxXqom_TRmlz9WhemQSXRusxU/resizing_type:fit/width:1040/height:0/enlarge:1/quality:95/aHR0cHM6Ly9tZWR1/emEuaW8vaW1hZ2Uv/YXR0YWNobWVudHMv/aW1hZ2VzLzAwMy8y/ODcvODU2L29yaWdp/bmFsLzZpSm1CQm1C/T29KVzdULWpndkg1/d3cucG5n.webp https://meduza.io/impro/LCjzlLaaoQX5pld_zlmxXqom_TRmlz9WhemQ...
- gbuk2013 5y ago
  > Vladivostok is one place in Russia where Putin genuinely struggles to get even single digits of approval ratings. Citation needed. In the last election in Primorsky Kray Putin got 65% up from 57% in the previous election. Pretty much the lowest in the country, but far from the single digits you claim. https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2394633.html https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2394633.html Even Levada approval polls (pro-opposition “foreign agent”) shows he is the most popular politician (although they don’t provide a breakdown by region). https://www.levada.ru/2021/02/04/prezidentskie-rejtingi-i-polozhenie-del-v-strane/ https://www.levada.ru/2021/02/04/prezidentskie-rejtingi-i-po...
  - Miiko 5y ago
    > In the last election in Primorsky Kray Putin got 65% up from 57% in the previous election. Yes, and in 1927 Liberian general election Charles King received around 240,000 votes (out of 15,000 registered voters). So what?
jhgb 5y ago
> They might not lose, but they could still be embarrassed or greatly inconvenienced by the results. "Embarrassed by the results"? They didn't seem to have been embarrassed by this: https://manipulatori.cz/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Sn%C3%ADmek-obrazovky-1010.png https://manipulatori.cz/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Sn%C3%ADm...
- ineedasername 5y ago
  What is your point? We're talking about the current election and whether or not Navalny's new initiative will change the way things have gone in the past. By definition, the issue is whether or not past results will be repeated. Pointing to those past results is supposed to mean... what? That things won't change? Maybe they won't. But the claim here is that Navalny's actions might move the needle a little. You can't point to past results as an objection to that claim because then you're just saying "The results won't change from the past, because look at these results from the past." It is tautological. If you object to that claim, the way to justify it is by addressing how Navalny's initiative might be useless. And it might be useless: it depends on how many people it reached and, as I said originally, how fine grained the current party's control is over the election outcomes.
  - jhgb 5y ago
    My point was that such results would most likely not lead to any embarrassment since the embarrassment threshold for elections in Russia seems to be very high. I did not say a word about anything changing or not.

baybal2 5y ago

Vladivostok is one place in Russia where Putin genuinely struggles to get even single digits of approval ratings. It's one of the only places in Russia a jury acquits a person 3 times, just for him to finally get jailed for the 4th. 2018 token provincial elections had Lutun's candidate lose despite ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE fraud. And yet they still pulled this at the end: https://meduza.io/impro/LCjzlLaaoQX5pld_zlmxXqom_TRmlz9WhemQSXRusxU/resizing_type:fit/width:1040/height:0/enlarge:1/quality:95/aHR0cHM6Ly9tZWR1/emEuaW8vaW1hZ2Uv/YXR0YWNobWVudHMv/aW1hZ2VzLzAwMy8y/ODcvODU2L29yaWdp/bmFsLzZpSm1CQm1C/T29KVzdULWpndkg1/d3cucG5n.webp https://meduza.io/impro/LCjzlLaaoQX5pld_zlmxXqom_TRmlz9WhemQ...

gbuk2013 5y ago
> Vladivostok is one place in Russia where Putin genuinely struggles to get even single digits of approval ratings. Citation needed. In the last election in Primorsky Kray Putin got 65% up from 57% in the previous election. Pretty much the lowest in the country, but far from the single digits you claim. https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2394633.html https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2394633.html Even Levada approval polls (pro-opposition “foreign agent”) shows he is the most popular politician (although they don’t provide a breakdown by region). https://www.levada.ru/2021/02/04/prezidentskie-rejtingi-i-polozhenie-del-v-strane/ https://www.levada.ru/2021/02/04/prezidentskie-rejtingi-i-po...
- Miiko 5y ago
  > In the last election in Primorsky Kray Putin got 65% up from 57% in the previous election. Yes, and in 1927 Liberian general election Charles King received around 240,000 votes (out of 15,000 registered voters). So what?

jhgb 5y ago

> They might not lose, but they could still be embarrassed or greatly inconvenienced by the results. "Embarrassed by the results"? They didn't seem to have been embarrassed by this: https://manipulatori.cz/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Sn%C3%ADmek-obrazovky-1010.png https://manipulatori.cz/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Sn%C3%ADm...

ineedasername 5y ago
What is your point? We're talking about the current election and whether or not Navalny's new initiative will change the way things have gone in the past. By definition, the issue is whether or not past results will be repeated. Pointing to those past results is supposed to mean... what? That things won't change? Maybe they won't. But the claim here is that Navalny's actions might move the needle a little. You can't point to past results as an objection to that claim because then you're just saying "The results won't change from the past, because look at these results from the past." It is tautological. If you object to that claim, the way to justify it is by addressing how Navalny's initiative might be useless. And it might be useless: it depends on how many people it reached and, as I said originally, how fine grained the current party's control is over the election outcomes.
- jhgb 5y ago
  My point was that such results would most likely not lead to any embarrassment since the embarrassment threshold for elections in Russia seems to be very high. I did not say a word about anything changing or not.