3 ms·
>I think it probably will be endemic but we’re minimum scenario 3 I think the variables are: 1. Vaccine that prevents infection/transmission at a significantl
by unclebucknasty 5y ago
>I think it probably will be endemic but we’re minimum scenario 3
I think the variables are:
1. Vaccine that prevents infection/transmission at a significantly more substantial rate
2. Significant waning of vaccine effectiveness per new variants
3. Unexpected increase (or decrease) in virulence of new strains.
4. Significant improvements in treatment (including medications)
These are, of course, unknowns. But, holding these constant, I believe we can calculate with fair accuracy how bad it will be as a direct function of the percentage of the population that's vaccinated.
- graeme 5y agoThanks! I’m personally hopeful on point 1. Nasal vaccines seem to offer a fair bit of potential for mucosal immunity which could go further in blunting both breakthroughs and transmission.