4 ms·

It is and it isn't. His scenario won't happen but what will happen is fairly similar. No one is going to make large capital investments in a city that gets blo

by pfisch 5y ago

It is and it isn't. His scenario won't happen but what will happen is fairly similar. No one is going to make large capital investments in a city that gets blown away all the time. Every time New Orleans takes a big hit like this people leave, and less money is put back into the city. The population of New Orleans was higher in 1980 than it is now. I am from New Orleans, and since Katrina the infrastructure has been getting worse, not better. There probably isn't going to be some big dramatic event that kills New Orleans. It will just keep shrinking and pulling in towards the French Quarter as it gets hit repeatedly by extreme weather events. It will just become smaller and more impoverished over time until it is maybe abandoned at some distant point in the future. It will be a death by inches.

beerandt 5y ago
Cities across the country will die much sooner from economic and political reasons than New Orleans will die from subsidence. (Although New Orleans is likely included in that first set as well, based on current leadership.) But we don't discourage economic development in those places. My amortization comment was perhaps not explicit enough, but as long as people think the city will last beyond amortization periods, future abandonment/inundation/end-of-days predictions are not a rational reason to preclude investment. Most businesses shoot for a payback period of 10 years or less. I expect you're right about slow death, but it won't be for climatic or geologic or hydraulic reasons. Fear of those reasons might contribute, but then we've gone full circle back to "alarmist BS".
- pfisch 5y ago
  You're being unrealistic about the reality of living in New Orleans and the level of capital investment in New Orleans vs Baton Rouge or other cities that aren't under constant threat of destruction. People just aren't going to come in and build nice shopping centers in New Orleans. It isn't happening and hasn't happened. Why would it when they could build in another city where it won't get destroyed and it will be more profitable? It is extremely stressful every year watching hurricanes and wondering if your house is going to be destroyed. Then when your house is destroyed it is no fun at all to be involved in gutting it and rebuilding it. On top of that no one is making investments in the city so it hardly has any good jobs. It isn't alarmist to recognize what is already happening. The climate is creating more extreme weather events that are undermining New Orleans. It doesn't need to be some fake "The Day After Tomorrow" style disaster that people can easily recognize. It is an insidious, slow, hollowing out of the city. How many water boil warnings have their been since Katrina? How often has electricity been inconsistent in the city? I can tell you it happens a lot more now than it did before Katrina, and it is going to be even worse after Ida.
  - jsight 5y ago
    How many homes were destroyed and will need to be rebuilt due to ida?
    - beerandt 5y ago
      Probably high 5 figures to mid 6 figures, depending on what you count as rebuilding. Lots of houses with no roof, or with trees through them that could go either way re teardown or repair. I don't think anyone knows just yet. It took 4 days just to do the preliminary power outage assessment.
      - jsight 5y ago
        That seems hard to believe, tbh, but now I'm really bothered that I don't have any definitive source. But "high 5 figures" would be >50k. According to this: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/05/hurricane-ida-louisiana-residents-without-power-families-homeless/5740682001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/05/hurric... they are looking at 22k power poles. Were homes twice as likely to be destroyed than power poles were to be damaged?
        beerandt 5y ago
        Here's Entergy's visual: worse than the next 4 hurricanes on the list, combined, including Katrina. (This is part of what I meant when I said msm isn't covering it well up thread.) https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/damage/ https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/damage/ And Entergy only covers a portion of the area, but includes all of New Orleans and most of Baton Rouge. There are a lot more trees than power poles to fall. Lots of trees fell through houses, which allowed additional water and damage, and they won't know anything until insurance and possibly an engineer or contractor look at it. FEMA just started blue roof on Tuesday I think. But definitely over 50k damaged, if not destroyed. Just depends on where you draw the line.
  - selimthegrim 5y ago
    People are perfectly happy to come and drop hundreds of millions on developing apartment complexes in the CBD for some reason, so why not shopping centers? The good jobs bit I agree with, I am about to leave Tulane with a PhD and barring some remote offers from Houston I can't find a means, motive or opportunity to stay here as much as I enjoy it.

by pfisch 5y ago

beerandt 5y ago

Cities across the country will die much sooner from economic and political reasons than New Orleans will die from subsidence. (Although New Orleans is likely included in that first set as well, based on current leadership.) But we don't discourage economic development in those places. My amortization comment was perhaps not explicit enough, but as long as people think the city will last beyond amortization periods, future abandonment/inundation/end-of-days predictions are not a rational reason to preclude investment. Most businesses shoot for a payback period of 10 years or less. I expect you're right about slow death, but it won't be for climatic or geologic or hydraulic reasons. Fear of those reasons might contribute, but then we've gone full circle back to "alarmist BS".

pfisch 5y ago
You're being unrealistic about the reality of living in New Orleans and the level of capital investment in New Orleans vs Baton Rouge or other cities that aren't under constant threat of destruction. People just aren't going to come in and build nice shopping centers in New Orleans. It isn't happening and hasn't happened. Why would it when they could build in another city where it won't get destroyed and it will be more profitable? It is extremely stressful every year watching hurricanes and wondering if your house is going to be destroyed. Then when your house is destroyed it is no fun at all to be involved in gutting it and rebuilding it. On top of that no one is making investments in the city so it hardly has any good jobs. It isn't alarmist to recognize what is already happening. The climate is creating more extreme weather events that are undermining New Orleans. It doesn't need to be some fake "The Day After Tomorrow" style disaster that people can easily recognize. It is an insidious, slow, hollowing out of the city. How many water boil warnings have their been since Katrina? How often has electricity been inconsistent in the city? I can tell you it happens a lot more now than it did before Katrina, and it is going to be even worse after Ida.
- jsight 5y ago
  How many homes were destroyed and will need to be rebuilt due to ida?
  - beerandt 5y ago
    Probably high 5 figures to mid 6 figures, depending on what you count as rebuilding. Lots of houses with no roof, or with trees through them that could go either way re teardown or repair. I don't think anyone knows just yet. It took 4 days just to do the preliminary power outage assessment.
    - jsight 5y ago
      That seems hard to believe, tbh, but now I'm really bothered that I don't have any definitive source. But "high 5 figures" would be >50k. According to this: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/05/hurricane-ida-louisiana-residents-without-power-families-homeless/5740682001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/05/hurric... they are looking at 22k power poles. Were homes twice as likely to be destroyed than power poles were to be damaged?
      - beerandt 5y ago
        Here's Entergy's visual: worse than the next 4 hurricanes on the list, combined, including Katrina. (This is part of what I meant when I said msm isn't covering it well up thread.) https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/damage/ https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/damage/ And Entergy only covers a portion of the area, but includes all of New Orleans and most of Baton Rouge. There are a lot more trees than power poles to fall. Lots of trees fell through houses, which allowed additional water and damage, and they won't know anything until insurance and possibly an engineer or contractor look at it. FEMA just started blue roof on Tuesday I think. But definitely over 50k damaged, if not destroyed. Just depends on where you draw the line.
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  People are perfectly happy to come and drop hundreds of millions on developing apartment complexes in the CBD for some reason, so why not shopping centers? The good jobs bit I agree with, I am about to leave Tulane with a PhD and barring some remote offers from Houston I can't find a means, motive or opportunity to stay here as much as I enjoy it.