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Studies of states that extended the unemployment benefits vs ones that didn’t seem to show that the benefits accounted for a fairly small portion of the differe

Studies of states that extended the unemployment benefits vs ones that didn’t seem to show that the benefits accounted for a fairly small portion of the difference in employment. https://www.wxxinews.org/post/what-unemployment-insurance-tells-us-about-work-during-pandemic https://www.wxxinews.org/post/what-unemployment-insurance-te...

gruez 5y ago
From skimming the study, it looks like the study only looks at the employment rate change in 5-6 weeks after benefits were dropped? That seems like way too short of a period to draw any conclusions. I suspect many had savings built up, and that they expected the benefits to come back, therefore they didn't immediately go out looking for a job.
- kennywinker 5y ago
  Good thing the researcher is continuing to track this: https://arindube.com/2021/08/20/early-withdrawal-of-pandemic-ui-impact-on-job-finding-in-july-using-current-population-survey/ https://arindube.com/2021/08/20/early-withdrawal-of-pandemic... Per his findings, at very best the early end to ui lead to 160,000 jobs in june+july this year (6% over states that retained ui). And that’s without adding any of the complicating factors like how most of those jobs may have just been taken from new entrants to the job market. I don’t think that’s enough to explain the overall ”labour shortage” trend.
prepend 5y ago
Benefits ended a few weeks ago, I don’t think these studies are very useful at this point. Let’s see how it goes in a year to see what happens.
- kennywinker 5y ago
  Benefits in some states expired last year, while other states renewed them - which makes for a perfect set of comparative data. Them ending completely now is going to change the landscape but it’s near impossible to say anything about how it changes the landscape since there’s no replication
  - prepend 5y ago
    Federal benefits expired in June. So while state benefits ended, there were still federal benefits available.

gruez 5y ago

From skimming the study, it looks like the study only looks at the employment rate change in 5-6 weeks after benefits were dropped? That seems like way too short of a period to draw any conclusions. I suspect many had savings built up, and that they expected the benefits to come back, therefore they didn't immediately go out looking for a job.

kennywinker 5y ago
Good thing the researcher is continuing to track this: https://arindube.com/2021/08/20/early-withdrawal-of-pandemic-ui-impact-on-job-finding-in-july-using-current-population-survey/ https://arindube.com/2021/08/20/early-withdrawal-of-pandemic... Per his findings, at very best the early end to ui lead to 160,000 jobs in june+july this year (6% over states that retained ui). And that’s without adding any of the complicating factors like how most of those jobs may have just been taken from new entrants to the job market. I don’t think that’s enough to explain the overall ”labour shortage” trend.

prepend 5y ago

Benefits ended a few weeks ago, I don’t think these studies are very useful at this point. Let’s see how it goes in a year to see what happens.

kennywinker 5y ago
Benefits in some states expired last year, while other states renewed them - which makes for a perfect set of comparative data. Them ending completely now is going to change the landscape but it’s near impossible to say anything about how it changes the landscape since there’s no replication
- prepend 5y ago
  Federal benefits expired in June. So while state benefits ended, there were still federal benefits available.