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I currently work on embedded software for medical delivery UAVs, and I often choose to use 30-40 year old technologies because it's the most "boring" solution.

I currently work on embedded software for medical delivery UAVs, and I often choose to use 30-40 year old technologies because it's the most "boring" solution. We're already making sci-fi drones, we don't need to make the software flashy. I've previously worked on self driving cars, and spaceships. Over my career, it doesn't feel like anything's changed more than incrementally. A lot of the expensive technologies I worked with professionally are now starting to appear in consumer electronics, though, and that's really cool. It seems like modern breakthroughs come from "Elon Musking" existing technology into being cheaper and better, and then "Apple-ing" it into a mainstream commodity.

throw0101a 5y ago
> […] and I often choose to use 30-40 year old technologies because it's the most "boring" solution. There's a good chance that it will also be around for a while in regards to spare parts and such: > The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's Law[1]) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, it is also likely to have a longer remaining life expectancy. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect
- dotancohen 5y ago
  I've mentioned variations on this regarding music. How much garbage is on the radio today? From the last decade? From the last generation? Music hasn't gotten worse, but we're still listening only to the good stuff. Pantera will be around another generation at least, my grandchildren's grandchildren will likely still listen to The Beatles. And starship captians will undoubtedly invite the wives of dignitaries to onboard Mozart recitations en route to the boring interstellar negotiations of their husbands.
  - lostlogin 5y ago
    > And starship captians will undoubtedly invite the wives of dignitaries to onboard Mozart recitations en route to the boring interstellar negotiations of their husbands. I hope gender roles will have progressed more by then, though technological progress is often more rapid than social change.
    - bserge 5y ago
      He didn't mention the gender of the wife and husband.
    - dotancohen 5y ago
      I was referring to a specific episode of Star Trek The Next Generation. There is no need to interject social wokeness into every conversation. You are causing attrition, not compassion.
      - vincnetas 5y ago
        most likely your reference was not recognised by parent. neither did i recognized it.
      - spopejoy 5y ago
        > There is no need to interject social wokeness into every conversation Your parent comment "interjected" gender roles into the discussion in a jarring and frankly outdated way. Not sure why an obscure TNG reference makes you immune from all criticism?
- pfdietz 5y ago
  When applied to humanity as a whole that gives something like the Doomsday Argument. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
cameldrv 5y ago
It's a good observation, but IMO this has been the lifecycle of many, many technologies. Take the jet engine. It was invented in the 30s, applied to exotic military applications in the 40s and 50s, available as transportation for the rich in the 60s and 70s, and finally became the dominant long distance transport mode for everyone by the 80s and 90s.
kilroy123 5y ago
I totally agree. However, I do think there is and will continue to be massive breakthroughs in _biological_ technology. Things like synthetic biological manufacturing. The decoding and understanding of the basic biologic software that runs our cells and bodies. I'm convinced a huge breakthrough is on the horizon, that will nudge us down the correct path of building AGI, based on better understands of bioelectric computation.

throw0101a 5y ago

> […] and I often choose to use 30-40 year old technologies because it's the most "boring" solution. There's a good chance that it will also be around for a while in regards to spare parts and such: > The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's Law[1]) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, it is also likely to have a longer remaining life expectancy. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

dotancohen 5y ago
I've mentioned variations on this regarding music. How much garbage is on the radio today? From the last decade? From the last generation? Music hasn't gotten worse, but we're still listening only to the good stuff. Pantera will be around another generation at least, my grandchildren's grandchildren will likely still listen to The Beatles. And starship captians will undoubtedly invite the wives of dignitaries to onboard Mozart recitations en route to the boring interstellar negotiations of their husbands.
- lostlogin 5y ago
  > And starship captians will undoubtedly invite the wives of dignitaries to onboard Mozart recitations en route to the boring interstellar negotiations of their husbands. I hope gender roles will have progressed more by then, though technological progress is often more rapid than social change.
  - bserge 5y ago
    He didn't mention the gender of the wife and husband.
  - dotancohen 5y ago
    I was referring to a specific episode of Star Trek The Next Generation. There is no need to interject social wokeness into every conversation. You are causing attrition, not compassion.
    - vincnetas 5y ago
      most likely your reference was not recognised by parent. neither did i recognized it.
    - spopejoy 5y ago
      > There is no need to interject social wokeness into every conversation Your parent comment "interjected" gender roles into the discussion in a jarring and frankly outdated way. Not sure why an obscure TNG reference makes you immune from all criticism?
pfdietz 5y ago
When applied to humanity as a whole that gives something like the Doomsday Argument. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument

cameldrv 5y ago

It's a good observation, but IMO this has been the lifecycle of many, many technologies. Take the jet engine. It was invented in the 30s, applied to exotic military applications in the 40s and 50s, available as transportation for the rich in the 60s and 70s, and finally became the dominant long distance transport mode for everyone by the 80s and 90s.

kilroy123 5y ago

I totally agree. However, I do think there is and will continue to be massive breakthroughs in _biological_ technology. Things like synthetic biological manufacturing. The decoding and understanding of the basic biologic software that runs our cells and bodies. I'm convinced a huge breakthrough is on the horizon, that will nudge us down the correct path of building AGI, based on better understands of bioelectric computation.