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> And besides that the fuel distribution network will at some point likely diminish to the point that driving one of these will not just be un-economical, it wi

> And besides that the fuel distribution network will at some point likely diminish to the point that driving one of these will not just be un-economical, it will be impossible. I'm very skeptical that the gasoline fuel distribution network is going away in our lifetimes. There's too much of the rest of our lives and infrastructure that depend in some way on the energy density of gasoline.

relativ575 5y ago
Europe ban new ICE vehicles in 2030s, so they will disappear completely in 2060s or so. I doubt gas station will still be a thing to the consumers by then, even if industrial use may still exist in some capacity.
jacquesm 5y ago
These things tend to have economies of scale and tipping points, once you lose the economy of scale and/or reach certain tipping points then suddenly operating a gas station will end up being unprofitable unless you charge a huge amount per liter/gallon and then there are even fewer people that will gas up. Once you get into a feedback loop like that the end can come quite quickly. Ironically, the developing countries will likely reach that point much later than the developed world, so maybe those Ferrari's will have their ultimate destination in unexpected places. That would be kind of funny. More likely though they will just be what they are today as well: signs of conspicuous consumption rather than to be driven. And for that purpose they may as well sit in their heated garages just like they do today. Typically those cars have < 30K on the odometer, it is pretty rare to see one that is in use as a daily driver and when they are the bills to keep them running are quite heavenly. A friend of mine has an F12, he was very happy with it, right up to his first major service and then he could count out how much that car costs per kilometer driven. That's before you get into little details like depreciation. He's not quite as happy with it today, but likely if he holds on to it for a while he'll sell it with a profit anyway, over the longer term they tend to gain in value.
- generalizations 5y ago
  The problem I see with electric is the energy density, and the difficulties that come with that. Battery tech has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go. The other trouble is the longevity. I like buying used cars for ~$3k with 100k+ miles on them: pick the right one, and it'll last you another 60k+ miles for the cost of tires and DIY oil changes. From what I understand, current battery tech requires you to buy replacement batteries well before that point, and those batteries are ~$10k. Back of the napkin, that's $1k more than the cost of the ICE car, its maintenance, and the gas to drive it. It's not just cars, either. Welding - fairly fundamental to construction these days - depends on the availability of cheap power, usually in the form of gas generators. We'll be in a bind of gas isn't available anymore. Not to mention all the other applications for grid-independent electricity generation, which generally depends on gasoline or diesel. You may be right, and we'll hit that tipping point. If we do, though, I think we'll have a lot of second-order effects that bite us hard.
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    > used cars [...] with 100k+ miles on them > it'll last you another 60k+ miles > current battery tech requires you to buy replacement batteries well before that point That's not true. After 160k miles, EV batteries still have more than 90% of their original capacity: https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

relativ575 5y ago

Europe ban new ICE vehicles in 2030s, so they will disappear completely in 2060s or so. I doubt gas station will still be a thing to the consumers by then, even if industrial use may still exist in some capacity.

jacquesm 5y ago

These things tend to have economies of scale and tipping points, once you lose the economy of scale and/or reach certain tipping points then suddenly operating a gas station will end up being unprofitable unless you charge a huge amount per liter/gallon and then there are even fewer people that will gas up. Once you get into a feedback loop like that the end can come quite quickly. Ironically, the developing countries will likely reach that point much later than the developed world, so maybe those Ferrari's will have their ultimate destination in unexpected places. That would be kind of funny. More likely though they will just be what they are today as well: signs of conspicuous consumption rather than to be driven. And for that purpose they may as well sit in their heated garages just like they do today. Typically those cars have < 30K on the odometer, it is pretty rare to see one that is in use as a daily driver and when they are the bills to keep them running are quite heavenly. A friend of mine has an F12, he was very happy with it, right up to his first major service and then he could count out how much that car costs per kilometer driven. That's before you get into little details like depreciation. He's not quite as happy with it today, but likely if he holds on to it for a while he'll sell it with a profit anyway, over the longer term they tend to gain in value.

generalizations 5y ago
The problem I see with electric is the energy density, and the difficulties that come with that. Battery tech has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go. The other trouble is the longevity. I like buying used cars for ~$3k with 100k+ miles on them: pick the right one, and it'll last you another 60k+ miles for the cost of tires and DIY oil changes. From what I understand, current battery tech requires you to buy replacement batteries well before that point, and those batteries are ~$10k. Back of the napkin, that's $1k more than the cost of the ICE car, its maintenance, and the gas to drive it. It's not just cars, either. Welding - fairly fundamental to construction these days - depends on the availability of cheap power, usually in the form of gas generators. We'll be in a bind of gas isn't available anymore. Not to mention all the other applications for grid-independent electricity generation, which generally depends on gasoline or diesel. You may be right, and we'll hit that tipping point. If we do, though, I think we'll have a lot of second-order effects that bite us hard.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  > used cars [...] with 100k+ miles on them > it'll last you another 60k+ miles > current battery tech requires you to buy replacement batteries well before that point That's not true. After 160k miles, EV batteries still have more than 90% of their original capacity: https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...