3 ms·

> How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? You're painting two extremes and a

by Jedd 5y ago

> How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? You're painting two extremes and asserting one's not possible, and thereby concluding the other is ineluctable. We've proven we can eliminate it (witness NZ and large parts of Australia), and assuming a policy of full vaccination and arrival / subsequent swab tests for visitors, it's quite feasible that once we've got most people in Australia vaccinated, propagation pathways can be well tracked, and propagation rates can be kept very low.

grecy 5y ago
I'm in Australia right now, and they very much have NOT gotten rid of it. Delta has proven impossible to eradicate, and in fact the leaders of both NSW and Vic (where the two outbreaks are) have given up and said that Covid 0 is no longer possible. More than half the country is in severe lockdown, unable to go more than 5 km from their home. NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. And even still, if Australia somehow did manage to keep a lid on it - anyone that wants to leave the country is surely going to go to a place that has much higher rates, and they'll likely get it. Then they want to come back into Australia - will there be the mandatory 2 week quarantine forever? (I paid $3k a few months ago). It's simply not a viable long term future.
- Jedd 5y ago
  You're speaking about the current outbreaks - we don't yet know if we will / could eradicate it this time around. Certainly previously we've gotten down to zero, across every state, when there was more political will to do so. Currently the political will isn't there - had NSW implemented the same measures we have now, back when the first outbreaks were being detected, we'd have been sorted a month ago. Take your pick from vanilla incompetence, hubris, insouciance, or any of the various commercial or political intrigues to explain this torpid initial response that has brought us to where we are. > NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. I see they've had 25 new cases today. Is this 'out of control'? It feels a long way from 'everyone is going to have to get COVID, there's no other way'. As to your last question, yes, it's quite palatable for me that anyone who leaves the country and returns would submit to a test on arrival, quarantine at home for 2 weeks with subsequent tests at 7 and 14d.
  - grecy 5y ago
    OK, so in your world Australia gets off it's backside and gets back to Covid 0, and somehow NZ does too. What happens in 6, 12, 24 and 48 months? How do you Keep covid out, forever? Also, what about the other 99.9% of the world's population - surely they're all going to get covid sooner or later. Hopefully the vast majority are double vaccinated before they get it, but like getting a common cold, it's essentially inevitable if we want to go back to mass sporting events, bars and clubs, mass public transport, planes, etc. etc.
    - Jedd 5y ago
      It feels you think I have an answer, just that I'm not willing to share it with you. I don't have an answer, but that doesn't mean I must accept or like yours. The approach I described (home quarantine & testing regime for people arriving from overseas) is tenable and not too controversial - certainly much more palatable, and probably more effective, than the current (enforced hotel quarantine). Would need to be combined with proper deterrents for idiots wilfully subverting that process (we have been objectively atrocious at implementing or enforcing legal deterrents for anti-social behaviour on the COVID front). Over the 24-48 month period you're demanding an answer for - my naive expectation is twofold. Many populations will have delta sweep through well within that period, resulting in large demographics of delta-immune people. (Note - this doesn't mean I want to live in such a place, just that it will happen.) Second, we'll have booster & variant-specific vaccinations developed within that time, possibly with nasal delivery - meaning very fast, less contentious (higher uptake), and probably cheap.

by Jedd 5y ago

grecy 5y ago

I'm in Australia right now, and they very much have NOT gotten rid of it. Delta has proven impossible to eradicate, and in fact the leaders of both NSW and Vic (where the two outbreaks are) have given up and said that Covid 0 is no longer possible. More than half the country is in severe lockdown, unable to go more than 5 km from their home. NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. And even still, if Australia somehow did manage to keep a lid on it - anyone that wants to leave the country is surely going to go to a place that has much higher rates, and they'll likely get it. Then they want to come back into Australia - will there be the mandatory 2 week quarantine forever? (I paid $3k a few months ago). It's simply not a viable long term future.

Jedd 5y ago
You're speaking about the current outbreaks - we don't yet know if we will / could eradicate it this time around. Certainly previously we've gotten down to zero, across every state, when there was more political will to do so. Currently the political will isn't there - had NSW implemented the same measures we have now, back when the first outbreaks were being detected, we'd have been sorted a month ago. Take your pick from vanilla incompetence, hubris, insouciance, or any of the various commercial or political intrigues to explain this torpid initial response that has brought us to where we are. > NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. I see they've had 25 new cases today. Is this 'out of control'? It feels a long way from 'everyone is going to have to get COVID, there's no other way'. As to your last question, yes, it's quite palatable for me that anyone who leaves the country and returns would submit to a test on arrival, quarantine at home for 2 weeks with subsequent tests at 7 and 14d.
- grecy 5y ago
  OK, so in your world Australia gets off it's backside and gets back to Covid 0, and somehow NZ does too. What happens in 6, 12, 24 and 48 months? How do you Keep covid out, forever? Also, what about the other 99.9% of the world's population - surely they're all going to get covid sooner or later. Hopefully the vast majority are double vaccinated before they get it, but like getting a common cold, it's essentially inevitable if we want to go back to mass sporting events, bars and clubs, mass public transport, planes, etc. etc.
  - Jedd 5y ago
    It feels you think I have an answer, just that I'm not willing to share it with you. I don't have an answer, but that doesn't mean I must accept or like yours. The approach I described (home quarantine & testing regime for people arriving from overseas) is tenable and not too controversial - certainly much more palatable, and probably more effective, than the current (enforced hotel quarantine). Would need to be combined with proper deterrents for idiots wilfully subverting that process (we have been objectively atrocious at implementing or enforcing legal deterrents for anti-social behaviour on the COVID front). Over the 24-48 month period you're demanding an answer for - my naive expectation is twofold. Many populations will have delta sweep through well within that period, resulting in large demographics of delta-immune people. (Note - this doesn't mean I want to live in such a place, just that it will happen.) Second, we'll have booster & variant-specific vaccinations developed within that time, possibly with nasal delivery - meaning very fast, less contentious (higher uptake), and probably cheap.